Taiwan MEGA thread

[Buster]

Now that the POS authoritarian gov't invasion party is in full swing, let's talk about China and Taiwan.

Ukraine isn't of any real strategic value to...anyone (except maybe the Russians). I think the view will be different on Taiwan. Chinese expansionism, the manufacturing importance of Taiwan, etc.

Will the US intervene militarily in Taiwan? I doubt it, but it could lead to some different policies with say Japan and Korea.

[killramos]

I personally hope they get Tom Cruise up in the air for some awesome top gun dog fights.

[Shlade]

Stocks to invest in when they go down?

[ExtraSlow]

I think the correct name is Chinese Taipei.

[flipstah]

Stocks to invest in when they go down?

Foxconn so AAPL

[Manhattan]

With how complicated Ukraine is becoming it only deters Chinese action if they were even thinking it. Would be much more difficult to sanction China given the world's dependence on their money & stuff.

I will say that just like Ukraine was gradually leaning towards NATO/EU/western democracies and Russia had a closing window to 'take Ukraine back' the same is just as if not more true for Taiwanese independence. Younger gens don't remember Taiwan being a part of China and much more aligned to western ideas. Older gen Taiwanese mostly favor reunification its the 'how' that prevented it from happening.

[ThePenIsMightier]

We can't be sure what Putin takes in Ukraine until he's done. And if he only "helps the areas that wish to secede" become part of Russia, then what he's doing really isn't that bad... It's possible that their action will be limited to that. I have no idea where he will stop and before everyone jumps down my throat, please realize that you also have no idea.

If it ends up "only" being that^ then it's not really equivalent to China taking Taiwan... Is it?

[Xtrema]

I personally hope they get Tom Cruise up in the air for some awesome top gun dog fights.

He already sold out by removing the Taiwan patch on Maverick's jacket.


With how complicated Ukraine is becoming it only deters Chinese action if they were even thinking it. Would be much more difficult to sanction China given the world's dependence on their money & stuff.

I will say that just like Ukraine was gradually leaning towards NATO/EU/western democracies and Russia had a closing window to 'take Ukraine back' the same is just as if not more true for Taiwanese independence. Younger gens don't remember Taiwan being a part of China and much more aligned to western ideas. Older gen Taiwanese mostly favor reunification its the 'how' that prevented it from happening.

That's my view as well. I think the fight Ukrainians was able to put up actually defang military expansion anyone else had in mind. But ADIZ violation continues from Chinese jets and $100M of Patriot missile is arriving on the island soon, so again 1 accident and we can see things escalate really fast.

Economically, China may not do it this year because of Ukraine and general economic issue in 2022. Many governments are going into bankruptcy as the real estate bubble pops and land sale slows/stops. Their action in the banking sector shows that they need to stay on SWIFT as people are suffering as it is and doesn't need any more shock.

It is an "election" year for China and Taiwan too. Taiwanese media is using Ukraine crisis to lecture the Taiwanese government about importance of staying neutral instead of provoking China as independence is considered sedition and by Chinese law will invite military interventon.

From a geographical defense perspective, Taiwan to China has the same value as Ukraine to Russia. So while there are no ethnic issues for an excuse to start, it's more of a ideological issue between people over and 40 and under 40.

[redline]

can the honkey bois fight on three fronts? that is a lot of freedom up for grabs

[tonytiger55]

With all the attention on Ukraine, im suprised China has not made any move on Taiwan..

[ExtraSlow]

Am I way out of line saying that China "retaking" Chinese Taipei is a smaller deal than Russia invading Ukraine?

[killramos]

Am I way out of line saying that China "retaking" Chinese Taipei is a smaller deal than Russia invading Ukraine?

I’m guessing Taiwan is more economically significant than Ukraine

Ukraine is basically a European Canada

[Xtrema]

With all the attention on Ukraine, im suprised China has not made any move on Taiwan..

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bank-of-chinas-singapore-operation-stops-financing-russian-oil-trades-source-2

They seems to be playing ball so far.


Am I way out of line saying that China "retaking" Chinese Taipei is a smaller deal than Russia invading Ukraine?

Ukraine doesn't stop me from achieving middle class status by acquiring a PS5.

Seriously tho, until TSMC fabs are ready in Arizona and Japan, we are royally fucked riding on AMD chips in servers and arm chips in phones.

[ExtraSlow]

Nah

[Buster]

Am I way out of line saying that China "retaking" Chinese Taipei is a smaller deal than Russia invading Ukraine?

Taiwan is far more important than Ukraine.

[JRSC00LUDE]

Taiwan is far more important than Ukraine.

Taiwanese dumplings and Vareniki are nearly indistinguishable.

[KLCC]

Taiwan is far more important than Ukraine.

Taiwan is not part of UN nor has any strategic importance to western society (NATO or otherwise).

Taiwan, according to the UN resolution 2758 belongs to China. It isn't a sovereign nation like Ukraine, therefore, I fail to see how Taiwan is more important than Ukraine.

[Buster]

Taiwan is not part of UN nor has any strategic importance to western society (NATO or otherwise).

Taiwan, according to the UN resolution 2758 belongs to China. It isn't a sovereign nation like Ukraine, therefore, I fail to see how Taiwan is more important than Ukraine.

Hi Xi

[killramos]

Taiwan is not part of UN nor has any strategic importance to western society (NATO or otherwise).

Taiwan, according to the UN resolution 2758 belongs to China. It isn't a sovereign nation like Ukraine, therefore, I fail to see how Taiwan is more important than Ukraine.

Dude. Do the world a favour and cut the sig

[KLCC]

Hi Xi

That's emperor Xi to you ;)

[Xtrema]

Taiwan is not part of UN nor has any strategic importance to western society (NATO or otherwise).

Taiwan, according to the UN resolution 2758 belongs to China. It isn't a sovereign nation like Ukraine, therefore, I fail to see how Taiwan is more important than Ukraine.

In the whole scheme of thing, Taiwan isn't really that important.

But in the scheme of keeping China down/stunt its growth, it will be used as invasion bait. Much like what Putin stepped into right now. Just like Mearsheimer said, best way to end Russia is to get it to invade US, a way to end China is to bait it to invade Taiwan.


When Taiwan had its 1st election in 1996, China acted out and Clinton paraded a fleet thru the Taiwan strait and they STFU. But almost 30 years later, now there is a whole generation of Taiwanese that has been attached to elections and self determinations which China doesn't want. Now Tsai is running the country since 2016 toward the same path as Ukraine did, China may be running out patience and knew if they let democracy take its course, they will never have Taiwan back as the younger generation slowly want to join the west.

What China has over Russia is that we all use Chinese electronics that US is trying hard to break our habits on with limited success. And Chinese's equivalent systems are taking up shape and you see WeChat Pay and AliPay systems almost everywhere, especially in touristy areas. So as much as cutting China off swift may hurt, it won't hurt as much as it is against Russia. China is a lot more self sufficient that Russia is.

[Pacman]

I better stock up on boba pearls as there may be a supply issue soon.

[killramos]

The only way to end a nuclear power is to starve it.

Change my mind.

[JRSC00LUDE]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nth4RqqmQZ4

[KLCC]

In the whole scheme of thing, Taiwan isn't really that important.

But in the scheme of keeping China down/stunt its growth, it will be used as invasion bait. Much like what Putin stepped into right now. Just like Mearsheimer said, best way to end Russia is to get it to invade US, a way to end China is to bait it to invade Taiwan.


When Taiwan had its 1st election in 1996, China acted out and Clinton paraded a fleet thru the Taiwan strait and they STFU. But almost 30 years later, now there is a whole generation of Taiwanese that has been attached to elections and self determinations which China doesn't want. Now Tsai is running the country since 2016 toward the same path as Ukraine did, China may be running out patience and knew if they let democracy take its course, they will never have Taiwan back as the younger generation slowly want to join the west.

Just for your information Tsai, and DPP is trash. Nearly all of them (DPP politicians) have duel citizenship, and in case of any conflict, they would fled to US or other places immediately. Thank god she has no term left. The internal political paralysis between DPP and KMT will end Taiwan all on its own (in my opinion)

[Xtrema]

Just for your information Tsai, and DPP is trash. Nearly all of them (DPP politicians) have duel citizenship, and in case of any conflict, they would fled to US or other places immediately. Thank god she has no term left. The internal political paralysis between DPP and KMT will end Taiwan all on its own (in my opinion)

Unless something changes, doesn't look like KMT is having a good run in this year's election either. Regardless how trashy DPP and Tsai is.

But it's too early to see how this Ukraine thing is changing the minds of Taiwanese people as they are now seeing possibility/effect of invasion IRL.

One thing for sure, Taiwan is a good case for NOT having any recall legislations. It create a never ending election cycles.

[Xtrema]

Anyway, is a Chinese invasion imminent?

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/exclusive-biden-sends-former-top-defense-officials-taiwan-show-support-2022-02-28/
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-warship-transits-sensitive-taiwan-strait-2022-02-26/

Seems like a lot of people are focusing on it last few days.

[ExtraSlow]

It's not an invasion, it's support for oppressed persons.

[Manhattan]

If Hawaii wanted to secede and was located couple miles off the US coast imagine if China sent out warships to the California coastline... Technically speaking China/TW is a domestic/civil issue. US needs to get off its high horse because its had its fair share of human rights issues...past & present.

It might sound like I'm heavily in the pro-China camp but I'm actually for status quo in TW...I like TW the way it is. Just want to offer another perspective.

[Buster]

Technically speaking China/TW is a domestic/civil issue.

I dont think the people of Taiwan think of it that way.

[Manhattan]

I dont think the people of Taiwan think of it that way.

You mean the 97% of ethnic Chinese in TW? Taiwan considers itself a province (license all plates all say TW province). Same is true for N/S Korea. BOTH sides want reunification. They just disagree on how to get there. Would be mistake to see it thru the same lens as Russia/Ukraine even though there's some similarities.

Western democracies & ideas of freedom generally appeals more to younger gen. Dominance of American culture can't be understated either. Asian countries tend to value collectivism. Neither is wrong or objectively superior.

[ZenOps]

If you go by their computer keyboard, Taiwan is more Chinese than China is.

[Buster]

You mean the 97% of ethnic Chinese in TW? Taiwan considers itself a province (license all plates all say TW province). Same is true for N/S Korea. BOTH sides want reunification. They just disagree on how to get there. Would be mistake to see it thru the same lens as Russia/Ukraine even though there's some similarities.

Western democracies & ideas of freedom generally appeals more to younger gen. Dominance of American culture can't be understated either. Asian countries tend to value collectivism. Neither is wrong or objectively superior.

Collectivism is inferior for a variety of moral and economic reasons.

Taiwan is a democracy.. Independence seems to be a priority for them.

[ZenOps]

There is a solid reason for China to pretend to invade Taiwan. To goad the USA into deploying the F-35.

USA has produced about 700 or so. If they "naturally" fail on launch and landing at a rate of two per month, all China really needs to do to get their hands on one would be to pretend invade to the point where they start putting them up in the sky or even around the ocean in the area. When two have been captured, one goes to Taiwan and one goes to China. Declare peace, win for everyone but the USA. Taiwan and China laugh all the way to the bank.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_F-117A_shootdown

Pretty high risk, but then again - maybe its high risk to *not* reverse engineer. That the F-35 can be objectively easy to shoot down air to air, makes it an even bigger war prize.

8kG9j5Io6yw Braveheart spoilers.

[mr2mike]

Free Tibet!

[Xtrema]

same is true for n/s korea. Both sides want reunification. US/China/Russia just disagree on how to get there. Would be mistake to see it thru the same lens as russia/ukraine even though there's some similarities.

ftfy


Western democracies & ideas of freedom generally appeals more to younger gen. Dominance of American culture can't be understated either. Asian countries tend to value collectivism. Neither is wrong or objectively superior.

If polls are to be trusted, independence vs status quo is now at 53% vs 25% and will accelerate as old gen fades away. This is why DPP has been running it since 2016 and this conflict will be inevitable eventually unless somehow magically CCP gives it up.

China's demand isn't any different than Putin's demand on Ukraine. They will let Taiwan do their own thing as long as they don't call for independence. ADIZ violation is just a daily reminder of that. China wants to buy time to dominate it thru economy and attract more people to leave Taiwan to work in mainland to increase ties. After South China see island grab, China believes Taiwan is the last military strategic weak point.

[Manhattan]

^

As important as TW is for military strategy I think the biggest reason is just for there to be a single united Chinese state. This is what a lot of media miss thru a western lens. For most of 2 thousand years China has been ruled under a single regime and it has become part of their ethnic identity. I believe Korea is the same way. Unlike Europe where each country was divided into hundreds of smaller fiefdoms and only organized into their current nation states in relatively recent history.

[Manhattan]

Collectivism is inferior for a variety of moral and economic reasons.

Taiwan is a democracy.. Independence seems to be a priority for them.

It essentially boils down to utilitarianism vs kantianism. We haven't solved that question yet as a species. China has proven with its growth under capitalism that their version of collectivism works at least economically.

[Xtrema]

^

As important as TW is for military strategy I think the biggest reason is just for there to be a single united Chinese state. This is what a lot of media miss thru a western lens. For most of 2 thousand years China has been ruled under a single regime and it has become part of their ethnic identity. I believe Korea is the same way. Unlike Europe where each country was divided into hundreds of smaller fiefdoms and only organized into their current nation states in relatively recent history.

Justifying land based on history is a slippery slope. Wait til Italy justifying it by wanting the Roman empire back or Turkey justifying it by wanting the Ottoman empire back. Or Mongolia saying China belong to them because of Genghis Khan ruled it for 100 years.

That's the exact same justification used to take over Tibet because China used to ruled it in 1271-1368.

End of the day, don't be poor and you can define whatever borders you want.

[Buster]

It essentially boils down to utilitarianism vs kantianism. We haven't solved that question yet as a species. China has proven with its growth under capitalism that their version of collectivism works at least economically.

There is no problem to solve.

China's "growth" hasn't been some breakthrough for collectivism (even if you could convince a reasonable person that collectivism wasn't inherently immoral). China's growth has been centrally planned totalitarianism just like all the other versions. And they all eventually collapse.

[ExtraSlow]

I heard totalitarianism is great. Heard it from a guy at work. Seems legit.

[Xtrema]

I heard totalitarianism is great. Heard it from a guy at work. Seems legit.

It frees yoru mind to focus on serving your master.

[JRSC00LUDE]

I heard totalitarianism is great. Heard it from a guy at work. Seems legit.

Did his first name rhyme with Dustin?

[holden]

Free Tibet!

Hopefully if the West comes to Taiwan's aid that will weaken China in the east. Tibetan freedom fighters retake Tibet, Uyghurs make noise in Xinjiang and India invades disputed border areas.


https://youtu.be/VNZ0so0LCoM?t=1809

[Xtrema]

Abe want US nukes in Japan and start an alliance like NATO in Asia and for US to stop the ambiguity stance on Taiwan.

https://japantoday.com/category/politics/ex-pm-abe-says-japan-should-discuss-nuclear-sharing-arrangement

[ZenOps]

There is an absolutely tiny chance that Taiwan may join China on a handshake. Tiny, but there.

[msommers]

I'm inclined to think that the US will have more to say about Taiwan. Not because they care about the Taiwanese people, but rather the semiconductors for their iPhones

[ExtraSlow]

Pfffft, I heard they have thier own factories for that stuff now. Biden made USA semiconductors great again.

[Buster]

105027

[Xtrema]

Chance are slim, but what if Putin loses and Russia become western friendly and now at Chinese door at NE.

[ExtraSlow]

106230
https://nationalpost.com/news/china-surrounds-taiwan-with-warships-as-army-conducts-wartime-drills

[Xtrema]

Putin ain't making progress with Ukraine and Finland/Sweden are joining NATO. Time for some diversion to help a brother out.

With Pro US governments just popped up in Pakistan/Korea/Philippines and BRI in jeopardy over inflation and failing governments elsewhere, Xi's side of CCP feels time is ticking down on them.

[ZenOps]

If Putin threw a Billy at Kim Jong, I'm pretty sure he would take on Hawaii.

[jutes]

Maybe Canada should do some convening, it’s what we do best.

[Buster]

Xi's side of CCP feels time is ticking down on them.

As it ought to be. Their dumb economic policies are going to kill them long term. Not to mention the demographic timebomb waiting around the corner.

[Xtrema]

Going by Chinese press, this has more to do with Asian NATO than Taiwan.

[max_boost]

I don’t see what the Americans can realistically do.

[Yolobimmer]

I don’t see what the Americans can realistically do.

Americans want the world to belong to them. Look at the threats against the Soloman islands.

Buckle up folks, the Americans won't let anyone have a piece without a all out brawl.

[Xtrema]

I don’t see what the Americans can realistically do.

Nothing. They want Chinese to fire the first shot, like Putin did then start another proxy war with little to no troops commitment and just weapons.

Hope Chinese are not stupid to fall for that shit like Putin did. But US keeps up poking the bear with Asian NATO that Xi may actually do something if his 3rd term is threaten internally.

[suntan]

I don’t see what the Americans can realistically do.

Carbon tax?

[ZenOps]

Again, Taiwan is just a bluff. What the USA really wants Australia. Would be cake considering their military defense capability.

USA solidly got Hawaii, mostly got Guam, and mostly failed conquering the Phillipines. If this is global war round 3, Australia would be a far better prize and a lot easier to take. Japan didn't invade California, they went for Hawaii first.

Why can't Jacinda see it? I'd make a remark, but it would get me in trouble. When the USA invaded Canada, it was supposed to be "cake" too - but this is a different cake.

[ZenOps]

At the rate of burn of "modern" weaponry sent to Ukraine, the US might not have much to send to invade Taiwan *cough* Australia *cough*. They might have lucked out because all that are really left are knives, cheap bullets and nukes. All the really cruel weaponry.

Unless thats the goal. Australia was always #1 on nearly every military strategists list to be nuked first.

[Xtrema]

A Chinese immigrant just pulled a mass shooting in a Taiwanese church in Cali.

False flag?

Seems to be pretty good at fanning the anti-China flames on the island.

[jutes]

Define Mass.

[killramos]

A Shooting during Mass.

Duh

[jutes]

People killing each other because of race, religion or which country you're from.

Humanity is a cancer on this planet. At least animals eat each other for survival, we just do it for fun.

[ExtraSlow]

China needs to keep its self-terrorism inside its own borders.

[ZenOps]

Peering into the crystal ball. It wouldn't be a bad time for India to invade Sri Lanka.

[hks]

The only reason the West cares is because of TSMC. They could give a shit about democracy or freedom for the Taiwanese people.
I have no problem with that, but the whole virtue signaling and feigning concern over the Taiwanese people is asinine at this point. Nobody is retarded enough to think the West actually cares about the people there.

Hypothetically, if China were to march into Taiwan tomorrow, #1. I don't think legally the world could really do anything, but #2. I would love to hear the reasoning the West gives Zelinsky and the Ukrainian people as to why they are way more willing to intervene in Taiwan but not Ukraine.

[ZenOps]

Thing is, how many Taiwanese have been killed at the hands of Chinese soldiers? How many died in internment camps in Poland? How many actually shot and killed each other? China has not invaded Taiwan yet, militarily or economically.

Western media makes it out to be an unforgiveable rift that requires US intervention with nuclear bombers flying overhead. Honestly - its not even a family squabble.

Putins war is a completely legitimate grievance if you go by raw 24 million Russians that died, mostly by knife, bullet, or starvation - one at a time. To even compare the two potential conflicts lessens Russia and European issues. Xi is a dictatorship - well sorry to say that the majority of countries are dictatorships - try again with another reason.

If your average Taiwan citizen had to go through what an average Ukrainian or Russian citizen did - I don't think they would even be able to contemplate complaining about anything. Its like complaining about employment in North America while watching an Indonesian sulfur miner.

I don't even think an average Taiwan citizen would survive on a traditional Russian diet.

If 1 million older US citizens died of Covid, is 24 million Russians dying in WWII 24x worse?