Merkur
11-17-2004, 02:51 AM
Possibly the most significant date in the history of Alberta will fall within a year after Nov. 22. That's the date of the provincial election.
Some time after that, the Martin government will announce the New National Energy Program, the purpose of which will be to commandeer Alberta's natural resource revenues and convey them to Eastern Canada generally and to Quebec in particular.
This is not a possibility.
I think we should consider it a dead certainty.
I also believe it imposes on every Albertan a single decision.
When the Martin government proposes this, will we vote to separate from Canada?
All this sounds like dire alarmism, I know, but consider the circumstances.
First the economic ones: Oil has hit $50 a barrel and is altogether likely to keep on going up.
That confers enormous economic advantage on this province.
It will funnel billions more into the oil sands, and make Alberta the economic engine of the whole country.
Last week, we saw Imperial Oil announce it was finally moving its head office into Alberta, where it should have been all along.
This is only a beginning.
Money, jobs, technology, all these things and many more will begin gravitating into the province.
Now consider the political circumstances:
The minority Martin government almost certainly must face an election within two years, and it can call one any time it pleases.
To gain a majority, it must win more seats in Quebec and Ontario. The surefire means to gain support down there is to promise a major raid on "the Rich Oil Barons," meaning us.
It's a formula that has never failed. It is bound to happen.
It is also a double-edged sword because it will cause a devastating split in the Tories.
Their Alberta and Western wing will go one way and their Ontario and Eastern wing will go another.
So we will have a single-issue federal election.
Do you want a government that is prepared to "stand for the interests of all Canada," or one that will "serve only the interests of a single, already very rich province?"
The Liberals will go back with a landslide.
The Alberta boom will come to an abrupt end.
The revenues, supposedly guaranteed to the province by the terms of Confederation, will be pillaged as they have been before.
For the Liberals, there are admittedly certain dangers.
They will not dare introduce anything before the Alberta election because the Alberta response to it would instantly become the central issue in the Alberta campaign.
A leader of any party promising to fight Ottawa all the way to a separatist referendum could wind up winning. So the action must come after Nov. 22.
Then of course, there are the questions over what Ralph Klein might do.
He has already announced that this will be his last election, but that he wants to remain in office until the Queen's visit in May.
The actual date of the passage of the Alberta Act, marking our 100th birthday is Sept. 1.
The probable timing is therefore for a Tory leadership convention in the early fall of 2005.
Now this date is also crucial.
If the federal move is made before then, it would blow the leadership race wide open.
Any candidate threatening a separation referendum could appear from nowhere, win the leadership and put himself at the head of the provincial government.
Where Ottawa wants a pussyfoot premier, it could find itself facing a gorilla.
Thus the Liberal dilemma.
If it calls its "Let's-Get-Alberta" election this winter, it could set off a separatist movement in the province that would become the central issue in the leadership contest to find Ralph Klein's successor.
If it holds off until the Alberta leadership is resolved, that could postpone the federal election until the late fall of 2005, a long way down the road, with Alberta growing economically more powerful -- and therefore self-confident and independent minded -- all the time.
Meanwhile, what can ordinary Albertans like you and me do about all this?
The answer is that we can think out the issue -- not angrily but coolly, not emotionally but rationally.
Better to do the thinking now.
When the storm hits, when the bill comes down, and we see precisely what they're up to, it's already too late.
Some time after that, the Martin government will announce the New National Energy Program, the purpose of which will be to commandeer Alberta's natural resource revenues and convey them to Eastern Canada generally and to Quebec in particular.
This is not a possibility.
I think we should consider it a dead certainty.
I also believe it imposes on every Albertan a single decision.
When the Martin government proposes this, will we vote to separate from Canada?
All this sounds like dire alarmism, I know, but consider the circumstances.
First the economic ones: Oil has hit $50 a barrel and is altogether likely to keep on going up.
That confers enormous economic advantage on this province.
It will funnel billions more into the oil sands, and make Alberta the economic engine of the whole country.
Last week, we saw Imperial Oil announce it was finally moving its head office into Alberta, where it should have been all along.
This is only a beginning.
Money, jobs, technology, all these things and many more will begin gravitating into the province.
Now consider the political circumstances:
The minority Martin government almost certainly must face an election within two years, and it can call one any time it pleases.
To gain a majority, it must win more seats in Quebec and Ontario. The surefire means to gain support down there is to promise a major raid on "the Rich Oil Barons," meaning us.
It's a formula that has never failed. It is bound to happen.
It is also a double-edged sword because it will cause a devastating split in the Tories.
Their Alberta and Western wing will go one way and their Ontario and Eastern wing will go another.
So we will have a single-issue federal election.
Do you want a government that is prepared to "stand for the interests of all Canada," or one that will "serve only the interests of a single, already very rich province?"
The Liberals will go back with a landslide.
The Alberta boom will come to an abrupt end.
The revenues, supposedly guaranteed to the province by the terms of Confederation, will be pillaged as they have been before.
For the Liberals, there are admittedly certain dangers.
They will not dare introduce anything before the Alberta election because the Alberta response to it would instantly become the central issue in the Alberta campaign.
A leader of any party promising to fight Ottawa all the way to a separatist referendum could wind up winning. So the action must come after Nov. 22.
Then of course, there are the questions over what Ralph Klein might do.
He has already announced that this will be his last election, but that he wants to remain in office until the Queen's visit in May.
The actual date of the passage of the Alberta Act, marking our 100th birthday is Sept. 1.
The probable timing is therefore for a Tory leadership convention in the early fall of 2005.
Now this date is also crucial.
If the federal move is made before then, it would blow the leadership race wide open.
Any candidate threatening a separation referendum could appear from nowhere, win the leadership and put himself at the head of the provincial government.
Where Ottawa wants a pussyfoot premier, it could find itself facing a gorilla.
Thus the Liberal dilemma.
If it calls its "Let's-Get-Alberta" election this winter, it could set off a separatist movement in the province that would become the central issue in the leadership contest to find Ralph Klein's successor.
If it holds off until the Alberta leadership is resolved, that could postpone the federal election until the late fall of 2005, a long way down the road, with Alberta growing economically more powerful -- and therefore self-confident and independent minded -- all the time.
Meanwhile, what can ordinary Albertans like you and me do about all this?
The answer is that we can think out the issue -- not angrily but coolly, not emotionally but rationally.
Better to do the thinking now.
When the storm hits, when the bill comes down, and we see precisely what they're up to, it's already too late.