Official Short-term Investments Thread

lets revisit the dollar index.

ever since dollar hit a double top at 100 and also the 50/200 EMA produced a deathcross, I believe as well as other technical analysis that I follow that the US dollar has started a bear market.

every counter trending rally has been sold down. and in impulsive fashion.

I cant recall if I posted the dollar chart back when it looked like it was about to breakdown below 94. I might of posted it elsewhere, and had expected the dollar ideally would be to rally and form a right shoulder.

as it is now coming up to some key resistance. RSI has reached overbought and each time pretty much turning it around in full order.

I expect the next big move is down which will help lift the stock market, oil as well as gold.

will this time be any different? I read an article the other day saying one of the most dangerous thought in trading is the notion "this time is different"

well technically dollar looks ready to continue the pattern to the downside, so until the trend changes, I will continue to bet on further weakness which is strength across all sectors

http://i.imgur.com/nySj2Vq.png

added a position in abx here. just could not pass up a good opportunity here. even if the trend has changed, I believe we will still get a very good bounce.

not adding anymore leverage, but will convert my core miners into them if it drops significantly further.

if this is the bearish count, we should get a good counter trend bounce then drop further down to gdx in the 22 region. but not leaning towards this scenario until we can assess the bounce, how it bounce to see if it looks corrective or impulsive.

oil inventory in a few minutes. oil stocks is already moving as if the news will be good. we shall see, technically oil just needs a catalyst to trigger a strong rally out of the correction

+2.276M vs 0.92M forecast

edit: no help from the report to lift the oil sector, but nothing catastrophic either. looks like its back technicals and the US dollar

Prior was +2501K
Gasoline -691K vs -1000K exp
Distillates +1496K vs -125K exp
Cusing inventory -1039K vs +400K
Production -0.7% w/w and -7.9% y/y

And oil just nose dived too :banghead:

Gold, oil, bio all getting killed today. Great day to be a bear.

I think we gonna see JNUG under 100.

as mention so far the dollar is being rejected at the 96.2x area which has like a quadruple resistance zone.

looking for the euro/usd to breakout from a declining channel to fuel the energy/gold sector

Quote:

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Originally posted by Vanish3d
I think we gonna see JNUG under 100.

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You know, with anticipated decent job numbers and even speculation of it being padded to make Obama/Hilary look good, JNUG could very well go into single digits. Pain throughout this week and into the weekend IMO. This is all based on how I believe people are going to react on Friday, as silly as the reaction may be. It's just going to be a slow bleed until then before more pain.

I just can't imagine the insane resistance this miners will face when a bottom is in. There are an insane amount of people out there looking to cut their losses at any sign of a rally.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/31/why-t...rt-friday.html

Apparently August has been the worse month since the end of the recession in terms of job creation... here's hoping the trend continues...

Quote:

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Originally posted by Disoblige

You know, with anticipated decent job numbers and even speculation of it being padded to make Obama/Hilary look good, JNUG could very well go into single digits. Pain throughout this week and into the weekend IMO. This is all based on how I believe people are going to react on Friday, as silly as the reaction may be. It's just going to be a slow bleed until then before more pain.

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10-20% loss a day in JNUG aint no SLOW bleed :cry:

GDX's been holding that $25.5 range all day.
Making NUGT and JNUG steady more or less.

Wonder what's in store for tomorrow and Friday.. Hmm..
Curious if I should put a position in before EOD.

So what's everyone's average, and what's your plan?

I'm $21.84... and a shit ton of it.

I need to scale back, but doing so south of $20 would be extremely painful. Considering very long hold, but anything longer than a few months and decay is going to start to eat away to a significant degree.

No saying there isn't a lot of downside left still.

Well.. currently i am patiently waiting, and secretly praying. I will be holding onto what i have now and wont even touch it or add any more positions .

Currently have:
Yri @ 7.08 (1000 shares)
K @ 6.24 (1000)
Kgc @ 4.18 (1000)
Bte @ 6.82 (3000)
Meg @ 5.92 (2000)

Only thing really stessing me out is gold. Not sure what to do, but dont want to sell out for a lost either. Any advice would be appreciated. This aint even me in balls deep, but i so this to make money not lose it. I might just never look at ithem again until 2018.

^This is where I'm realizing the leveraged stuff kills you. I'd be fine just holding it for 2 or 3 years until there's a big move to the upside that could actually still pull decent returns, but decay will kill me first.

I'm in MEG as well @5.68.

Enough with the hysteria guys. This fear is exactly how the market capitulates. Just let it be a good lesson in how much risk/leverage you are really willing to take.

whether you are on the short side of gold or the long side. the 3 counts I have all points to a convergence and rally back up.

even some extremely well disciplined traders that I am following are all jumping in both feet at the current levels due to some of the moving average, back test and gap filled areas.

They have a lot more flexibility and can easily withstand a bit more downside, I know everyone freaks out during these panic sell offs. I am still fully invested in this sector, just dialing up more leverage as it drops.

when market sentiment is extremely and severely bearish, thats when the turn happens. (remember biotech when it was near a breakout then it gave back all of the gains? then when it broken the bottom of channel looking like new lows ahead, it reversed and now it completely recovered?

http://i.imgur.com/HgbbQWJ.png

Quote:

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Originally posted by Manhattan
Enough with the hysteria guys. This fear is exactly how the market capitulates. Just let it be a good lesson in how much risk/leverage you are really willing to take.

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:werd:

I'm in JNUG @ ~19.90 and YRI ~6.30. I'm probably going to average down on one or both of those, likely going to wait the week out before doing so.

Agree with Manhattan...

I have some cash on the side so I may average down. If Friday's job numbers are good i'll be in the market.

When people are greedy get out, when people are bleeding get in?