Official Short-term Investments Thread

Silver COT

Large Spec turns net-short for the first time since 2003. and it got me thinking. comparing the 2003 situation to now, I think one can argue we have uncanny similarities.

large spec turning to short could be capitulation, or throwing in the towel and usually 'can' be an indication of bottoming.

I guess we will know once a breakout of the blue line occurs - back test then launch. And silver enjoyed a massive bull market run from 2003-2011 from 4.5-50 dollars (10x)

https://s14.postimg.org/vcylk192p/si...03_vs_2018.png

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Originally Posted by SilverRex

stock market

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Haha figured I was going to get an answer like that.

Gold

well after 5 waves up off 1312 last week and 3 wave down and now a mini 5 waves up. I am sticking to this count. selling some crypto shares and increasing my Jnug holdings here. my count is wrong if gold takes out 1312

https://s14.postimg.org/5dr0kn0vl/gold_0312-2018.png

Weed

on the 5m chart, while it can be just noise and may not translate to higher level trend, I still take this as positive development. after finally breaking out of the heavily tested (9-10 times actually) 30.00 zone. and closing above it multiple days. we had a near perfect back test yesterday. and now it appears to be in a small consolidation pattern, my bet is breakout and up we go

https://s14.postimg.org/soxntlyy9/weed_03-13-2018.png

Tv releases q4 after hours today so a it's a good risk vs reward scenario today imo. Zinc plummeting 10% last week devalued tv heavily, but its bounced back to trading on almost on parity by this morning(still undervalued a bit). Zinc fell because someone dumped 70k tons of zinc on the lme, but stockpile drawdowns continue to chew through that surplus at 2000-3000 tons a day so likely just a temp blip. Their q4 should be a record quarter for them so tomorrow should be a good day for their stock.

With the shaky market There is the chance nothing happens but a lot of people have been waiting to see what gets released so I'm banking on some decent movement. If it hits 1.6s I'll sell, if it remains 1.4x or 1.5x I'll likely hold.



Hs is starving for news too. Getting lumped in with crypto currency and the shitty market isn't helping but I'm thinking I may double down again this week if things go well with tv. It's PP sell date everyone is terrified of should hit soon so I think after that happens and it isn't the apocalypse people think it is (who buys in to make 3cents?) we might see upward movement again.

US dollar

right now the dollar looks weak. breaking neckline support after support. While I want to see the US dollar begin a wave 3 down to new lows, this rising wedge pattern may still hold some water shall what ever it decides to give it one more push to the upper channel of this wedge. A rising wedge just looks bearish period.

Gold is also in a similar setup amid flipping the chart upside down. Still a remote chance gold can backest with another lower low under 1302 one last time to complete this wedge consolidation which will mean the dollar needs one more thrust back up.

https://s14.postimg.org/sldy7960h/dollar_03-14-2018.png

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Originally Posted by s_havinga

Sure hope we are at the bottom. Between PONY and now HIVE I have been doing way more averaging down in the last few months then I would like. Still have to learn to protect myself from these big drops it seems.

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So...I too am in HIVE and am feeling like there is no bottom in sight? Anyone have any insight on where it is headed? Perhaps my read on the latest news is wrong...but it does't seem to look good. There looks to be nearly 49million warrants that are going to be issued at an exercise price of 3.90. My first thought is who in their right mind has any faith left to imagine it hitting that from currents levels...so in turn who is going to have any interest buying them? The company says they are pleased to announce the listing of the shares...does that mean there is some great news coming...or is there going to be a bunch of shares dumped between today (march 15th), April 19th and April 30th. If today is any indication, I suspect there is some more serious downside to come? Am I right?....I am thinking I should sell and short this mess...

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Originally Posted by Magic8Ball

So...I too am in HIVE and am feeling like there is no bottom in sight? Anyone have any insight on where it is headed? Perhaps my read on the latest news is wrong...but it does't seem to look good. There looks to be nearly 49million warrants that are going to be issued at an exercise price of 3.90. My first thought is who in their right mind has any faith left to imagine it hitting that from currents levels...so in turn who is going to have any interest buying them? The company says they are pleased to announce the listing of the shares...does that mean there is some great news coming...or is there going to be a bunch of shares dumped between today (march 15th), April 19th and April 30th. If today is any indication, I suspect there is some more serious downside to come? Am I right?....I am thinking I should sell and short this mess...

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hehe in relation to HIVE...I can't help but think some BOT read that above rant by me yest and is now influencing the markets. Hehe, good. In that case...still should SHORT HIVE. Well, all in all...I hope this type of jump happens several more times in the near future...

15% jump followed by a trading halt for N this morning. I am still way under water with N as well but nice to see a jump like this seems like the lat month has been a continual drop.

ABX

two weeks ago I posted how the entire EW community were all targeting the 11 area being the bottom for ABX. Surely it bounced off 11.07, which in my book has met this objective. it also successfully tested the bottom of the channel. The moment is here, was the under performance in the mining complex mainly waiting for it's darling abx to complete it's painful yet much needed correction? over all the structure looks good here. to ensure we dont see a lower low, abx must take out 12.60, once it achieves this, any drop should only be a higher low.

https://s14.postimg.org/9lkgujkhd/abx_03-16-2018.png

Oil

havent posted a chart on this for a while. ever since it topped just above 66, been expecting this wave (iv) correction. clearly we have 3 down so potentially wave (iv) is completed at 58. we now have a good looking 5 up from 58 and 2 down to 60. My prefer count at this time is that wave iii is about to begin and this next leg up should give is a chance to hit 70 or higher. alt path (shall oil break 60) then correction has not finished, next target box could be anywhere between 54-59.

https://s14.postimg.org/bvd6j1y8h/oil_03-16-2018.png

HS. I didn't quite double down but I bought another 150k shares today.

Volume has been very good on HS the last couple days and its moved upwards, and held well today.The dip to 8.5 was expected after it moved up 25% yesterday, but it rebounded nicely. Possible bottom in with how its trading, and the PP sell date happened this week so I'm thinking those who already wanted to sell cheap from that have already or will have shortly (kinda what i was speculating earlier this week), and there is a good chance it will trend up again.

Still waiting for that white paper they promised last month... and interested to know what fortune 500 company is going to beta or alpha test their blockchain software, and whats going on with their MJ connections.

Hive

this one definitely overshot my downside target. with BTC count looking to turn up quite soon, i cant imagine this sector wont at least get a good bounce. Even in the extreme bearish case, Hive can still make a good short squeeze counter jump back to the 38% retracement at 2.24, with +divergence for quite some time, I expect a good pop anyways. where we go from there is another story because BTC could either be making new highs this year or it may simply just make a higher high above 11800. Either scenario should help lift this sector out of the Ashe. Again this is my own opinion and I could always be wrong.

https://s17.postimg.org/f94mt40lb/hive_03-20-2018.png

gdxj

fed rate hike day, from experience, miners usually perform strongly on aggressive rate hikes, shortly after they are announced, we will if this time is no different. miners has put putting in higher low (even as gold made a lower one in the same time span) this compression is about to be broken of have already been broken. still holding my jnug with a price of about 13 which I got in most likely prematurely.

https://s17.postimg.org/wqe94om27/gdxj_03-21-2018.png

gold

while gold appears to be trying to breakout Ro4 which is my prefer scenario, there is always the possibility for gold even after testing the 38% follow by the 50% fib retracement level still can drop to the 1285 (61%) level. I see any drop down to that area as an extreme buying opportunity. if the rate hike announcement actually drops gold down to this area, I will probably add to my position.

https://s17.postimg.org/7f9joila7/gold_03-21-2018.png

gdx

after breaking out. I will peg the bottom on Mar20th being the bottom. with 5 waves up. current wave 2 correction underway. It just tagged the 38% dipped into the blue box. so yes it can turn up from here, or reach down the low 21.4s. below the blue box would not look promising.

https://s17.postimg.org/xc8qhe6zj/gdx_03-22-2018.png

US dollar

so dollar has finally broken down from the rising wedge. it did not even get to tag the upper range of the wedge (91.3+) which would have forced gold to test under 1300. anyhow assuming all things go well, we have a back test of the broken neckline, and it should begin the next decline with a chance to make a new low or at least a double bottom in the low 88s. the h&s pattern breakout to the downside also projects into the same level.

https://s17.postimg.org/cj6bsuoov/dollar_03-22-2018.png

MJ Canada vote today 2nd reading. A lot of worried people out there. MJ sector is bouncing around.

I read from a source suggesting they have spotted how bitcoin moves 8 weeks ahead of the stock market. If crypto had indeed had a major bottom on Feb 5th, then the SM should bottom by no later than next week. Would it not be nice to know in advance when you see bitcoin's next major crash and 8 weeks later you exit the stock market and sit on cash to buy back lower. Will see if this pattern continues this years.

gdx

what do you know, when these counts work, its great. gdx touched 21.49 (21.48 actually was the 61% retracement level from my calculations), then gap up in what appears to be wave 1 of 3 of 3

https://s17.postimg.org/dts17h1v3/gdx_03-23-2018.png