I like that they're Canadian, them and Bitfarms I really like as companies since they're based in Canada (Hut8 being in AB too) but I don't want to be long investing in any of these mining companies at all so I've just stuck to options on Mara/Riot for that purpose. I think BTC has gone up so much so sudden it's gonna have to level off some point soon and then it'll be a race to withdraw money. That and the mining itself isn't profitable, it's just a flashy way to raise more funds to buy more equipment to raise more funds. It's a losing game (IMO). I think at end of March when earnings come out it's going to be brutal.Quote:
Originally Posted by nzwasp
It's great every one of these companies have huge orders for mining equipment but now that MicroBT, Canaan, and Bitmain are booked to nearly the end of next year I think its just a losing game. It's a game of who pre-ordered more mining equipment but every day the miners make less and less money. See the difficulty below, So if you bought a S17 PRO when it was released (April 2019) the difficulty was around 7T but by the time you received it (end of 2019) the difficulty was already 13.7T so your miner pumps out half the value per day as when you ordered it. A year after you receive it (18.6T) you are making 40% less than that again.
Hut8 specifically I think is hindered not being on NASDAQ or other big US market so they'll miss the hype wave. If you look at their financials they actually make way less now than they did a year ago. 2019 Sept 30th they had 67 million $ mined in 9 months at a site operating cost of 34 million but in 2020 it's only 27 million at a site cost of 29 million. The bitcoin halving event in 2020 made mining a losing game which is why many of these companies are now trying to hold BTC as extra revenue (see Mara buying 150 million of BTC, Hut8 took out a 20 million loan just to hold some BTC) and are issuing share sales to 'raise' capital to keep buying more equipment. Unless they've got a ton of big orders in already I think it'll be a uphill fight to stay in the battle once earnings come out.
BTC Difficulty:
Jan 1st 2019: 5.6T
Jul 1st 2019: 8.5T
Jan 1st 2020: 13.7T
Jul 1st 2020: 15.8T
Jan 1st 2021: 18.6T
Today: 21.4T
I kind of like Canaan though, they're the only public mining hardware manufacturer so I think they'll be a big customer of this mining wave if they can get their production numbers up but their A1246 is pretty behind on efficiency (38J/TH) when compared to Bitmain's S19 PRO (29.5J/TH) and Whatsminer's supposed M50S (30J/TH rumor). But then again the shortage of silicon / memory that is impacting the whole market might hurt them even more. AMD and Nvidia are both struggling as well as console shortages ... I wonder if we'll see even more miner shortages and missed delivery targets too.
TL;DR: I don't know what to think, the whole market is fucked and fundamentals don't matter anymore. YOLO.
