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    Sticky: Grabbed some PONY and BTE today. I wish I had the...

    Grabbed some PONY and BTE today. I wish I had the balls to grab LABU at the open like I debated, but I'm still spooked there.
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    Sticky: Back in PONY. The fib retrace of the big move up...

    Back in PONY. The fib retrace of the big move up has me intruiged.
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    Sticky: Yes :( I was also nervously holding a whack of...

    Yes :(

    I was also nervously holding a whack of DWT. Oil was looking so damn strong I was worried I was going to get burned.
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    Sticky: Feeling better about being disciplined today....

    Feeling better about being disciplined today. Made a buy when my quote was showing 2.17 (got a fill for 2.20 :( ) trying to play a potential backtest/shakeout scenario, and so far it looks good. The...
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    Sticky: I had averaged down on PONY a shit ton. I was way...

    I had averaged down on PONY a shit ton. I was way overweight in it, and decided to dump 3/4 of my position at 2.30 to get back to a 10% position size, even though a lot of me wanted to be a...
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    Sticky: Anyone catch this LABU swing? I was in for...

    Anyone catch this LABU swing?

    I was in for about 12% of it... feeling silly for not letting it ride now. Crazy run.
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    Sticky: Time to load the boat on oil? It gets pretty...

    Time to load the boat on oil? It gets pretty scary if $43 breaks. Touching a down channel, oversold on all time-frames, and hitting major support at $43:
    https://invst.ly/459kz
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    Sticky: I'm so curious what is going to happen to crude....

    I'm so curious what is going to happen to crude. I sort of expect a surprise dump. I don't think anyone will be surprised by the cuts getting extended, so upside seems limited.

    On the other hand,...
  9. Thread: Deck Stain

    by bspot (view post)
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    We had some students do ours 3 years ago, and...

    We had some students do ours 3 years ago, and they used Dulux Flood. It has already lasted twice as long in the very high traffic areas than anything we had used previously.
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    Sticky: Well that undid a lot of yesterday's damage. Out...

    Well that undid a lot of yesterday's damage. Out of DUST. I find my success booking profit is way higher getting in and out closer to the trend lines.
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    Sticky: Bailing on that before I was in the red is one of...

    Bailing on that before I was in the red is one of the best decisions I made this year.. haha.

    I've been playing NUGT and DUST at the tops and bottoms of this channel and it's worked out alright.
    ...
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    Sticky: BTE looks to be breaking out: ...

    BTE looks to be breaking out:

    https://invst.ly/3wz1d
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    Sticky: If these numbers are confirmed by the EAI...

    If these numbers are confirmed by the EAI tomorrow, oil just pulled a huge headfake today:

    Crude -4.16M

    Gasoline -1.93M

    Distillates -0.44M

    Cushin -0.22M
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    Sticky: Thank you sir! On my watch list.

    Thank you sir! On my watch list.
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    Sticky: Welp, incoming bloodbath.

    Welp, incoming bloodbath.
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    Sticky: How time sensitive are these? You've made some...

    How time sensitive are these? You've made some great calls in the past, but if I have time a la ARIA, my $ is pretty tied up for a few weeks.
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    Sticky: The multi-month up trend is still intact. I think...

    The multi-month up trend is still intact. I think if it re-tests now, it fails.

    It's currently testing the 50 week and 200 day MA. If it closes below those, I bail.

    Basically, weak reaction to...
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    Sticky: I'm back in UWT, since oil going up seems to do...

    I'm back in UWT, since oil going up seems to do nothing for BTE :rofl:
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    Sticky: BTE going for the old double bottom? I'd planned...

    BTE going for the old double bottom? I'd planned to peel off half just under $5. Never hit. Pretty disappointed as now I'm unable to load the boat in the low $4s.
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    Sticky: BTE is killing me. I should have just played oil...

    BTE is killing me. I should have just played oil with UWT the entire time.
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    Sticky: NUGT is crushing JNUG today.

    NUGT is crushing JNUG today.
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    Sticky: Yeah, brutal EIA. Almost took a bunch of profit...

    Yeah, brutal EIA. Almost took a bunch of profit this morning :cry:
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    Sticky: API: Crude: -1.83MM Gasoline: -2.56MM...

    API:

    Crude: -1.83MM
    Gasoline: -2.56MM
    Cushing: +1.34MM

    Distillates were a build as well I believe.

    BTE with a nice pop into finish.
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    Sticky: Bought back UWT near yesterdays lows, partial...

    Bought back UWT near yesterdays lows, partial position.

    Really wishing I loaded the boat in UWT for the last week instead of BTE. BTE is lagging badly. Hopefully some explosive upside there once...
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    Sticky: Closing the rest of my UWT. 16.60-19.80. 4...

    Closing the rest of my UWT. 16.60-19.80.

    4 green days has very often produced a lower open on day 5, so I may look for reentry Monday.

    BTE not moving was not part of the plan. That was supposed...
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    Sticky: Well I blew that one. Oh well, blowing it for...

    Well I blew that one. Oh well, blowing it for small gains beats how I've screwed it up in the past. Gold is still a bit in no-man's land, so I'm ok being tentative.
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    Sticky: Out of JNUG. Meager profits, but gold looks happy...

    Out of JNUG. Meager profits, but gold looks happy to retest the previous breakout a few more times which will just drag it down the above channel further.
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    Sticky: Gold back testing the breakout. Scaling back in...

    Gold back testing the breakout. Scaling back in JNUG:

    https://invst.ly/3kvbo
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    Sticky: New projects are expensive, sustainment is...

    New projects are expensive, sustainment is amazingly cheap.

    http://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/03/23/canadas-oil-sands-looking-
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    Sticky: I likely don't have the balls to. Oil hits...

    I likely don't have the balls to. Oil hits important MA resistance at about $51, so I may peel off my UWT position.

    For BTE, it depends on the price action a bit, but I am more comfortable holding...
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    Sticky: It didn't get any easier than this playing UWT....

    It didn't get any easier than this playing UWT. BTE was a bit tougher as it hit lower lows as oil had already begun to reverse, but throwing money at it as long as the channel held has paid off:
    ...
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    Sticky: Did CVE not dilute to pay for the deal? I...

    Did CVE not dilute to pay for the deal?

    I mean, that doesn't take away the COP pop.
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    Sticky: Speaking to your seasonal strength comment: ...

    Speaking to your seasonal strength comment:

    http://s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.socialtrade.com/st/shards/2220_wcXVhz8g_l
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    Sticky: EIA data: Crude +867K vs +1.03M Cushing...

    EIA data:

    Crude +867K vs +1.03M

    Cushing -200K vs 866K

    Gasoline -3.75M vs -1.88M

    Distillate -2.48M vs -1.25M
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    Sticky: There goes GDXJ. I'm out of JNUG for a loss,...

    There goes GDXJ.

    I'm out of JNUG for a loss, miners look like there is lots of downside if gold retests its breakout. I'll rejoin the party then.
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    Sticky: Gold broke out over the first downtrend line I...

    Gold broke out over the first downtrend line I was watching, so after exiting JDST and waiting for a direction, I opened a position in JNUG at 6.87.

    I'm hoping for a retest of this breakout to...
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    Sticky: Oil is testing the crap out of the uptrend line....

    Oil is testing the crap out of the uptrend line. If there wasn't such good opportunity here, I'd likely cut loose my BTE and UWT positions, but instead I'll hope that the gasoline draws of the last...
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    Sticky: Out of JDST. JNUG looking like it may have legs....

    Out of JDST. JNUG looking like it may have legs. Went 12.83 - 14.40.

    Edit: Now I'm wishing I didn't, but I'll stay out. Profit is profit, and I really don't like being stuck in too long on bear...
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    Sticky: ^ This still looks good to me. Refinery usage...

    ^ This still looks good to me.

    Refinery usage is up, yet gasoline draws are bigger than expected.

    Going with roughly 2:1 for oil to refined gasoline, this gasoline draw needs 5600K barrels of...
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    Sticky: Doesn't that gasoline draw indicate a net supply...

    Doesn't that gasoline draw indicate a net supply reduction?
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