2019 Canadian Federal Election thread - polls and discussion.

[Buster]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

That honestly wouldn't surprise me. I'm left leaning, but hate Justin (always have, he's done nothing to make me like him or hate him more), but also hate the CPC. Who am I to vote for? The Greens? NDP? Like, fuck me.

It's pretty easy to see why you would hate the Liberals - especially with their recent shenanigans. Just curious what you see in the CPC which makes you hate them. At worst, they seem inept.

[rage2]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Also, has there been any talk of George Canyon being thrust into candidacy in central nova? They elected a candidate, and then he quickly resigned (rumors of theft from a liquor store and spousal abuse, from decades ago?) Anyways George canyon (fake name - country singer that's been living in high river) was announced as his replacement, completely out of left field. It pissed a lot of the locals off, who were left asking why they even had the vote, and the 2nd and 3rd place individuals weren't even notified Canyon was stepping in.

Central nova is home of Peter Mackay, who happens to be buddy buddy with Canyon, so there's some suspicion it's a game play for him for the future. Central nova can also be remembered for electing Brian Mulroney (friends with peter mackays father, Elmer) And also where Elizabeth May ran in 2008, notably without liberal opposition since it's normally a conservative area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Nova

So I guess he won’t be singing the anthem at flames games this year?

[KPHMPH]

I hate Scheer but I also hate Justin....buuuut I like the candidates in my neighborhood who support conservatives soooooo....

[ThePenIsMightier]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

So I guess he won’t be singing the anthem at flames games this year?

He's actually from Nova Scotia and has run & lost previously for the Conservatives. There's nothing nefarious about him in that riding.

[sabad66]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

That's a lot of butthurt Wikipedia incel editors.

Why do you think those results matter? Popular vote does not predict US elections. You have to win the EC. The US system is the opposite of Westminster - they wanted to avoid the tyranny of the majority. Does this have to be explained to you?

It’s general consensus that the polls were all wrong about the 2016 US election. You claimed “the polls all showed trump handily winning days before” so show me some evidence of that. Until then, the Wikipedia incels who aggregated all the poll results into one place is good enough for me to support my claim of “polls got it wrong”

[sabad66]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

A couple of corrections. Vegas never gives "20:1" odds. And it's illegal to bet on elections in Nevada. Likely, that was some dark offshore betting he did.

Trump was given a roughly 30% chance of winning by fivethirtyeight. That's decent odds.

Ok it wasn’t “official” Vegas odds, it was bodog. But you can be sure they have some analysts that look at all the available data to set those odds.

You picked five thirtyeight which was one of the closer ones, but even they were wrong. Most other polls were more like 10-20% from what I remember

So my point still stands, the polls got that one wrong. And that is why I don’t take much stock into them, things can change very quickly even up to the day before

[ExtraSlow]

I'll keep posting the seat projections from the cbc pollcast which is run by Eric Grenier who I think has a pretty thoughtful process.

Then we'll have date stamped record of the seat projections for this election, thier accuracy and how they change over time

And I'll keep arguing with anyone who says the polls are "neck and neck".

[suntan]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

It’s general consensus that the polls were all wrong about the 2016 US election. You claimed “the polls all showed trump handily winning days before” so show me some evidence of that. Until then, the Wikipedia incels who aggregated all the poll results into one place is good enough for me to support my claim of “polls got it wrong”

Popular vote polls are not useful for US elections.

Polls broken down by EC showed that Trump had quite a few swing states. Dunno why those polls aren't on Wikipedia. Oh wait maybe I do.

[Supa Dexta]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

He's actually from Nova Scotia and has run & lost previously for the Conservatives. There's nothing nefarious about him in that riding.

Not nefarious, but it is a high point of contention there locally. His real name is Fred Lays and he grew up there (he may have legally changed it by now) but for them to hold a vote and then the winner mysteriously drop out immediately - only for Fred to be shoved into place left a bad taste in many peoples mouths, with many demanding their party membership fees back because of it.

[killramos]

Well Trudeau has started the gun grabbing to distract from the fact that he’s a racist hypocrite.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lib...2019-1.5290950

[ExtraSlow]

Poll Projections on 2019-09-20. Notice I don't even show the popular vote, because it's meaningless.

[ThePenIsMightier]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Not nefarious, but it is a high point of contention there locally. His real name is Fred Lays and he grew up there (he may have legally changed it by now) but for them to hold a vote and then the winner mysteriously drop out immediately - only for Fred to be shoved into place left a bad taste in many peoples mouths, with many demanding their party membership fees back because of it.

Right, but this is a consistent play in politics. I can only think of Conservative examples recently (provincially, that guy in Edmonton and Sigurdson in Foothills) but there's no doubt all parties play this game.
It's kind of the definition of politics. There are politics in politics.
If Canyon is such a "key player" how come they dumped him in a riding he failed to win, last time? Plus, if he's in the Maritimes, he ain't winning a Blue seat this time, either. Liberals literally won EVERY seat in Atlantic Canada last election and if anything, they may be leaning farther Left now as we see some Green provincially in PEI.

[msommers]

I'll vote for whoever can hammer that pipeline through. But I don't think that is actually anyone. No way I could vote Liberal after the SNC fiasco

[Tik-Tok]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

It's pretty easy to see why you would hate the Liberals - especially with their recent shenanigans. Just curious what you see in the CPC which makes you hate them. At worst, they seem inept.

Asides from my social and environmental views being fairly at odds from the CPC (and their core voters), the fact we had a genuine Albertan as PM, with several of his high ranking ministers were from Alberta, and yet they did virtual nothing for us in 8 years of governance. I understand they had an entire country to take care of, but you would think they could have at least thrown us a bone, but nope, more of the same "fuck Alberta" attitude. So why anyone here thinks Scheer will do any more for us, I have no idea.

[tirebob]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Asides from my social and environmental views being fairly at odds from the CPC (and their core voters), the fact we had a genuine Albertan as PM, with several of his high ranking ministers were from Alberta, and yet they did virtual nothing for us in 8 years of governance. I understand they had an entire country to take care of, but you would think they could have at least thrown us a bone, but nope, more of the same "fuck Alberta" attitude. So why anyone here thinks Scheer will do any more for us, I have no idea.

I am not even remotely happy with any of our politicians period, but that said, even thought we may not get extra for Alberta with the CPC, I feel like they will take less from us than the alternatives if they get into power except for maybe Bernier, but Bernier getting in is not realistic this election so option number 2 is CPC. That is a sad way to think I guess that the best option is the one that will pilfer the least rather than the one that will do the most, but it is the only choices we are being given so for now, so-be-it. This year looks to be another one of those "hold your nose and vote" type scenarios.

[R-Audi]

I have heard that there are a few more smear items coming for Trudeau in the next few weeks, one big one involving the 'Me Too' movement, but from a male! Should be interesting to see how it all rolls out.

[Buster]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Asides from my social and environmental views being fairly at odds from the CPC (and their core voters), the fact we had a genuine Albertan as PM, with several of his high ranking ministers were from Alberta, and yet they did virtual nothing for us in 8 years of governance. I understand they had an entire country to take care of, but you would think they could have at least thrown us a bone, but nope, more of the same "fuck Alberta" attitude. So why anyone here thinks Scheer will do any more for us, I have no idea.

I'm not sure their social and environmental views are much different from the Liberals.

But your point on the "fuck Alberta" front is absolutely correct. There does not (and cannot) exist a federal party which would do what Alberta needs. The difference between the CPC and the Liberals is that the CPC just pretends they are Alberta's friend. The Liberals don't bother.

[pheoxs]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Asides from my social and environmental views being fairly at odds from the CPC (and their core voters), the fact we had a genuine Albertan as PM, with several of his high ranking ministers were from Alberta, and yet they did virtual nothing for us in 8 years of governance. I understand they had an entire country to take care of, but you would think they could have at least thrown us a bone, but nope, more of the same "fuck Alberta" attitude. So why anyone here thinks Scheer will do any more for us, I have no idea.

Pretty much where I’m at too. We need to do a lot more effort to curtailing our emissions and the CPC just doesn’t have an adequate plan for that. And given that every political party lies and comes up short on most of their promises, that makes their climate action platform even more dismal.

We really need to be more fiscally conservative now before the US tanks the world economy but scheer’s plan to cut taxes is just going to make the deficit worse. I’m strongly against lowering the federal income tax brackets because every time that happens it doesn’t translate to the growth they claimed.

So on the liberal side, they have lied about things (voter reform) which I’m still salty about. The overall economy (minus alberta) is doing quite well which means people will (hopefully) move back home and leave more of the jobs for albertans here. Kind of a weird benefit to us I guess. And tbh I have more faith in the liberals managing to get keystone built than the cpc because the US is going to swing back democratic and Sanders and Warren are both pro environment so if the CPC scraps our carbon tax it might be a hard sell to keep that project going.

I wish we still had Jack Layton’s NDP around and that would be my vote. I wish the current NDP weren’t hopelessly fucked into irrelevance.

[ExtraSlow]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

I have heard that there are a few more smear items coming for Trudeau in the next few weeks, one big one involving the 'Me Too' movement, but from a male! Should be interesting to see how it all rolls out.

A smart opponent would be trickling out defamatory details in a steady stream leading all the way up to election day. You don't want to be too early. We've already seen that the SNC thing has completely blown over and will have zero effect by October 21.

[revelations]

The whole smear thing could backfire at some point - and the CPC could just end up looking vindictive and petty. There is such a thing as too much smear in politics - unless of course it was illegal activities.