Current Calgary's real estate market

[Antonito]

I think the big thing will be how much longer the employment bubble holds out for. There are a lot of houses out there right now that are either just coming onto the market, or are being held by speculators who are starting to panic. If there can be another year or so of unnaturally high wages, and these houses can be accounted for, then the market will be ok. If people start losing their jobs soon and there aren't a lot of outside people flooding into Calgary, the market could go down a fair bit.

[riceboi]

Originally posted by sputnik


Most of us with houses didn't drive brand new cars until AFTER we owned a place.

Some people are being completely unreasonable. They lease a brand new car, wear $200 jeans, rack up big bar tabs on the weekends and buy a new cell phone every 6 months and then complain about how they can't afford a house.

It takes a lifestyle change to be able to afford a place in Calgary. Otherwise your lifestyle will require you to rent with friends to make ends meet.

Eventhough, the statement could be debate-able with each individual lifestyle. I think the statement above is true and personally, I agree with sputnik's viewpoint. A guy who bought a real estate property several years back is in a much better position, financially, than a guy who bought an expensive car. This situation is true now and will be still true in the future. Again, the key to a healthy financial lifestyle is not how much you make, it's how much you spend.

[riceboi]

Originally posted by Antonito
I think the big thing will be how much longer the employment bubble holds out for. There are a lot of houses out there right now that are either just coming onto the market, or are being held by speculators who are starting to panic. If there can be another year or so of unnaturally high wages, and these houses can be accounted for, then the market will be ok. If people start losing their jobs soon and there aren't a lot of outside people flooding into Calgary, the market could go down a fair bit.

At $85+ per barrel, I think Calgary will enjoy the hot economy for a little while before things are back to normal. Again Eddy and Dogde will have a big influence on the outcome.


Given all the economics fundamentals are strong and quite solid, I think the demand for housing is still there, people are just waiting to see how things will turn out in the next few weeks. Due to recent market adjustments, there are a lot of good deals out there but people are not making any offers since they are speculating that they can get even better deals if they wait for a little bit.

[RiCE-DaDDy]

can someone enlighten me on the inventory trends recently? it looks like it has risen...

[The Cosworth]

Originally posted by sputnik


Most of us with houses didn't drive brand new cars until AFTER we owned a place.

Some people are being completely unreasonable. They lease a brand new car, wear $200 jeans, rack up big bar tabs on the weekends and buy a new cell phone every 6 months and then complain about how they can't afford a house.

It takes a lifestyle change to be able to afford a place in Calgary. Otherwise your lifestyle will require you to rent with friends to make ends meet.

I don't wear expensive clothes or drink (health reasons), but I see your point. I have actually been quite good with my money. I paid off two years of student loans in 3 months. It isn't that I CAN'T afford a place, it is that I do not want to.... it is just insane the costs.

And I still stand by my original statement about prices coming down in Condo's so that is why I wait.



Edit: Also I am 21 so I think I am doing well for someone my age


Edit: another thing I was thinking about why Vancouver is more expensive, yes there are immigrants in Calgary, but MANY have lived in Vancouver who come from other countries. One of my friends in school said living in Vancouver was like living in Hong Kong so it made the transition easier. I would assume it is expensive because you have constant immigration there... but that is just a guess

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Antonito
I think the big thing will be how much longer the employment bubble holds out for. There are a lot of houses out there right now that are either just coming onto the market, or are being held by speculators who are starting to panic. If there can be another year or so of unnaturally high wages, and these houses can be accounted for, then the market will be ok. If people start losing their jobs soon and there aren't a lot of outside people flooding into Calgary, the market could go down a fair bit.

That is key.

What many people fail to realize is that if the housing market crashes many of us will be unemployed and looking for new jobs, nevermind new houses.

[Antonito]

Originally posted by brendankharris





Edit: another thing I was thinking about why Vancouver is more expensive, yes there are immigrants in Calgary, but MANY have lived in Vancouver who come from other countries. One of my friends in school said living in Vancouver was like living in Hong Kong so it made the transition easier. I would assume it is expensive because you have constant immigration there... but that is just a guess

There is a large amount of foreign money still coming into Vancouver. Not as much as the scare back when Hong Kong was getting handed over, but a steady stream. A lot of the highrises downtown Vancouver are being bought up on the first day by people who actually get flown in from Asia. I'm not even kidding, I've seen the paperwork. As more people are getting rich in the new Chinese economy, they buy property in Vancouver as an escape route if China folds again.

That is pretty much what is keeping the Vancouver housing market afloat for so long. The actual wages of Vancouver residents isn't the deciding factor. And that's the difference between Vancouver and Calgary. Here, it'll only go on as long as the people who actually live here are getting raises and can afford to pay more. In Vancouver, they could go up another 50%, and the foreign investors wouldn't blink an eye.

[The Cosworth]

Originally posted by Antonito


There is a large amount of foreign money still coming into Vancouver. Not as much as the scare back when Hong Kong was getting handed over, but a steady stream. A lot of the highrises downtown Vancouver are being bought up on the first day by people who actually get flown in from Asia. I'm not even kidding, I've seen the paperwork. As more people are getting rich in the new Chinese economy, they buy property in Vancouver as an escape route if China folds again.

That is pretty much what is keeping the Vancouver housing market afloat for so long. The actual wages of Vancouver residents isn't the deciding factor. And that's the difference between Vancouver and Calgary. Here, it'll only go on as long as the people who actually live here are getting raises and can afford to pay more. In Vancouver, they could go up another 50%, and the foreign investors wouldn't blink an eye.

Thanks for an insiders perspective, I have always thought that but didn't know for sure.

A couple of the places I have done designs for in Vancouver have had Asian billing address for the bills so that was what sparked my theory.

[noCARbob]

I don't understand why everyone thinks that condo prices are coming down? look at the stats condo prices are the only housing market that is not decresing so far this fall. With housign prices being out of reach people need to buy the condos which are still sort of affordible. So I really don't see condo prices dropping anytime soon.

[Crymson]

I know of a few people who are trying to sell their condos now. One has had hers on the market for a few months now and can barely even get people to view it, and the only one in her building that has sold was sold for either 40 or 60k under list, i can't remember which.

[broken_legs]

Condo Prices are coming down....

Friend of mine just bought a 2 bedroom 900 sq ft condo, new floors, storage room, dishwasher en suite laundry etc... etc..

236,000


The seller was motivated and no one else was looking

[RiCE-DaDDy]

Originally posted by brendankharris


Thanks for an insiders perspective, I have always thought that but didn't know for sure.

A couple of the places I have done designs for in Vancouver have had Asian billing address for the bills so that was what sparked my theory.

true to an extent. Keep in mind the majority of buyers are not foreign though.

[88jbody]

this could go 2 ways I see, either too manypeople will not be buying houses and the market will crash, or it will spend the next 6months adjusting for the large gains in the past couple years and level off and maybe a slight drop temporarily.

the cost of living in this city is playing a huge part in that, the people leaving the city is growing faster then the people comming to the city and infact I could see it become close to equal numbers if cost of living doesn't correct it self.

I cannot get a place, the bank gave me a maximum lendable amount of about $290,000 and I have a family of 4 so to find a place that meets the needs of having 2 young school age children and a stay at home wife. just doesn't exist. once she returns to work it should help that, but I am not holding my breath.

I am purchacing land in saskatchewan and back home in NewBrunswick instead,
the economy in NB is actually growing well now, with finds of uranium and gold as well as sourgas. that is just begining to be explored.

[riceboi]

With the announcement of Royalties is now official. I think the next few weeks will be interesting. So far, reactions seemed to be muted-- at this rate, I think the RE activities will pick up. I believe healthy job market and influx migration are two most fundamental requirements for a good RE market. If the observation is accurate, I think now it a buying time for those who are undecided.

[mountaindog]

Originally posted by riceboi
With the announcement of Royalties is now official. I think the next few weeks will be interesting. So far, reactions seemed to be muted-- at this rate, I think the RE activities will pick up. I believe healthy job market and influx migration are two most fundamental requirements for a good RE market. If the observation is accurate, I think now it a buying time for those who are undecided.

Some small contractors will layoff people after Chrismas and same to some small-sized EPC companies. Layoff and babyboomers (move to cheaper place) will greatly affect the real estimate market next year.

I sold my condo in May with a high price which is close to a single house now. I will wait another 6 months to buy back a good single house.

[cdnsir]

The month-over-month single housing price drops again for October. That's about ~3% every month of the past 3 months, bringing our average price back down to the pre-spring level from earlier this year!

Last year at this time, the growth rate just flatlined. But this year, it actually dropped. Could this be the beginning of the correction that people has been talking about for so long?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cdnsir
The month-over-month single housing price drops again for October. That's about ~3% every month of the past 3 months, bringing our average price back down to the pre-spring level from earlier this year!

Last year at this time, the growth rate just flatlined. But this year, it actually dropped. Could this be the beginning of the correction that people has been talking about for so long?

supply and demand, with inventory over 10k, it has no way to go but down. I believe 5000 is a heathy market. anything over that is giving sellers a hard time.

The snowball has started to roll, now its a matter of what will happen comes next summer.

[whodiman]

Originally posted by urban.one
Anyone view the stats on this site?

http://www.bobtruman.com/

He used to put over-market and under-market values for sales. Either Im blind or he took them off his site. Even though it was an incomplete list, I found those numbers interesting.

You are not blind. He has changed his site slightly as he is no longer updating them daily over the winter. Winter is basically his time off from work. Too bad as I found his site quite educational.

[GOnSHO]

i was going to buy a house in the middle of october, but they wouldnt come down in the price of the house... only 1200 TOTAL Square feet... for 290,000, got the house appraised, and it was worth ALOT less then that, so we said screw that... the way the prices are droppping, i could go back to that same house and prolly get it for 265,000 easy..

[freshprince1]

We are starting to look for a house more seriously now too. We'll have a 10% DP on anything under 350K, but don't know if we should wait a little longer now since prices look like they're going to slide...opinions? When would you buy your first home? Now? or wait till January?