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Thread: O&G is doomed, sky is falling, blame stelmach, etc

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    [/B][/QUOTE]
    2.) The slowdown we are experiencing right now has nothing to do with Royalties but Im sure everyone will blame the Royalties. It has to do with collusion of O&G companies to lower service company prices, it has to do with the drop in NG prices from their 14$ high, it has to do with the Income Trust Rules changing.
    Do you seriously think the CEO's of top oil companies get together at the Petroleum Club over a few bottles of 40 year old scotch and decide that they'll all cut their capital budgets to lower service company prices? Get real!! The slowdown actually has quite a bit to do with the royalties because when reservoir engineers look at the economics of a well they definitely include royalties costs. No economics, no well. I do agree that the drop in NG prices and Income Trust rules have also had a great impact, but that's not the reason companies are allocating their capital budgets to BC, Sask & overseas.

    3.) NG Production in Alberta is at a 6 year LOW expect prices to rise soon as well as drilling activity.
    Hate to break it to you but Alberta isn't the only place in the world with NG. I think the price will stick between $8-11. The gas storage levels are still extremely high and several large LNG projects will be completed over the next few years.

    4.) All of the companies that are going to be drilling up Sask and BC (which had the biggest BC land sale in 40 years around Dawson Creek in 2007) are based in Alberta.
    The companies are based in Alberta, yes. The rig hands and service companies that will be drilling these wells are not. The drill pipe, compressors, and other consumables will come from closer to the project.

    As I've said before, I don't think a slow down is necessarily a bad thing. I just think there have been so many different variables affecting the industry that the 'cuts' may be too deep and adversely affect things. Just yesterday I heard from 3 more people who lost their jobs.

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    It's common knowledge that they put a squeeze on service companies to lower prices.. So yes they did get together and decide that, in one way or another..

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    Originally posted by davidI


    Do you seriously think the CEO's of top oil companies get together at the Petroleum Club over a few bottles of 40 year old scotch and decide that they'll all cut their capital budgets to lower service company prices? Get real!! The slowdown actually has quite a bit to do with the royalties because when reservoir engineers look at the economics of a well they definitely include royalties costs. No economics, no well. I do agree that the drop in NG prices and Income Trust rules have also had a great impact, but that's not the reason companies are allocating their capital budgets to BC, Sask & overseas.
    Yes I seriously do. Maybe you should get real. The slow down started in late Q4 2006 and was full on in Q1 2007. This had NOTHING to do with the royalty report which was not made public until the summer. It had everything to do with the price of Nat Gas dropping 50%, all of the income trusts going bust over night in November of 2006, and the collusion between the operators (i think the petroleum club is closed now isnt it?)


    Hate to break it to you but Alberta isn't the only place in the world with NG. I think the price will stick between $8-11. The gas storage levels are still extremely high and several large LNG projects will be completed over the next few years.
    There is trillions of CF of NG in the shale in BC. Right around Dawson Creek, which is right by Grande Prairie, right next to one of the largest in situ oil projects in the world in Peace River.

    11 dollars for gas is almost 14 when things were going insane. The royalty scheme is going to be adjusted, they have already announced after the huge backlash (constructive feedback) they received from the operators that some wells would be reconsidered.


    The companies are based in Alberta, yes. The rig hands and service companies that will be drilling these wells are not. The drill pipe, compressors, and other consumables will come from closer to the project.
    So which drilling contractor do you know that operates out of BC or Sask?? Dont be silly. Everything comes from Nisku. All of the service companies have huge bases and supplies in Alberta, there is not much in BC or Sask unless you want to count the little fenced yards that are in FSJ or FN or LLOYD which are still owned by the service companies that are based in AB. Most of the rig hands are from Alberta (and im talking about the rigs that are working in BC and SASK right now). The other half of the rig hands are from NFLD. I can count the number of BC boys i met on the rig in three years on two hands.

    anyhoo I like constructive talk lets keep the information coming
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    Heres some more knowledge I'll drop on y'all, draw your own conclusion.

    Sourced from: http://www.slb.com/modules/rigcounts/default.aspx





    Notice that the rig count starts to decline steadily starting Sept 2006. There two random months in early 2007 that are above average, but then the rest of 2007 is in the crapper.

    The royalty Review wasn't made public until Aug/Sept 2007 as I remember. Maybe the O&G companies had ESP? Or maybe it was a combination of dropping energy prices, changing rules on energy trusts, and high service costs.... But what do I know.
    Last edited by broken_legs; 02-19-2008 at 02:03 AM.
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    Originally posted by broken_legs
    Yes I seriously do. Maybe you should get real. The slow down started in late Q4 2006 and was full on in Q1 2007. This had NOTHING to do with the royalty report which was not made public until the summer. It had everything to do with the price of Nat Gas dropping 50%, all of the income trusts going bust over night in November of 2006, and the collusion between the operators (i think the petroleum club is closed now isnt it?)
    The reason service rig company prices have gone down during booms has nothing to do with collusion between oil companies. It's usually because the companies get more rigs & crews going to keep up with demand and then they reach a point of over-supply and prices go down. If anything, during the most recent high-priced environment, it was the service companies colluding to maintain smaller fleet sizes and keep prices high. I read several reports that companies were not building up their fleets so as to keep demand high and prevent over-supplying the market as they had done in the past.

    You are correct that the royalty report was not released until the fall (September 18th, 2007 to be exact). What you fail to take into account is that the fact a review was going to take place was announced Feb. 16 of 2007. The uncertainty of that (along with environmental policy questions regarding carbon emission costs, both federal and provincial) paired with the high operating costs and decrease in the price of gas is what really caused a drop in spending & the # of rigs. If the economics are there, oil companies will drill. I work for one of the largest Canadian Oil Companies and have several friends who work within the planning groups for expenditures. I'll tell you right now that those are the reasons capital is being re-allocated. You're correct that the income trust tax change had a large impact on companies, but it affects all Canadian Energy trusts the same way. There are several trusts that are still around and doing ok, and they're still spending money - just not in Alberta! I don't think oil companies are really hurting, but I am saying there will be a slowdown in Alberta as capital is spent in places with better RORs. Just look at the increase in land sale activity in BC & Sask. How can that be attributed to lower gas prices & changes to the tax structure for income trusts???

    There is trillions of CF of NG in the shale in BC. Right around Dawson Creek, which is right by Grande Prairie, right next to one of the largest in situ oil projects in the world in Peace River.
    Doesn't that support what I said in regards to the price staying between $8 & $11? If there is adequate supply, which there is, there will not be some huge price increase that is going to jump start shallow gas drilling in Alberta. It's nearly spring which usually causes for prices to drop even lower. I probably should have said between $7-10 in the near term (ie. 6 months).

    11 dollars for gas is almost 14 when things were going insane. The royalty scheme is going to be adjusted, they have already announced after the huge backlash (constructive feedback) they received from the operators that some wells would be reconsidered.
    I don't understand how 11 dollars is 'almost' 14 dollars. 11 dollars is 11 dollars. If a well is not economic at 11 dollars, the company doesn't say "meh, it's almost 14 dollars so it's almost economic so I guess we should drill it". If the royalty review does adjust rates for lower production wells and wells with multiple horizontal legs producing out of 1 vertical well bore (which they certainly should) it should increase drilling activity in Alberta again. Unfortunately, that won't be until 2009 since most companies have already announced their '08 budgets.

    So which drilling contractor do you know that operates out of BC or Sask?? Dont be silly. Everything comes from Nisku. All of the service companies have huge bases and supplies in Alberta, there is not much in BC or Sask unless you want to count the little fenced yards that are in FSJ or FN or LLOYD which are still owned by the service companies that are based in AB. Most of the rig hands are from Alberta (and im talking about the rigs that are working in BC and SASK right now). The other half of the rig hands are from NFLD. I can count the number of BC boys i met on the rig in three years on two hands.
    [/B]
    Lots of companies work out of BC & Sask. Their head office may be based out of Alberta but that doesn't mean they don't have corporate entities in BC & Sask. Also, the workers may be 'from' AB and NFLD, but if they are working in BC & Sask or are living in BC & Sask then guess where they're spending their money (and possibly paying their taxes).

    Once again, I'm not necessarily against a slow down...I actually think Alberta needed to slow down for things to be sustainable to any degree. I just know things are slowing down and now it's just a matter of how much things slow down. I can't recall a time in the last few years where I received 3 e-mails in the same day from friends who were layed off prior to the long weekend.

    I enjoy the different view points and I'll admit I like to play devils advocate quite often. I do think there will be more layoffs and the economy will cool off substantially (can also be seen in housing starts). Your chart is great and I think it supports the fact that things have been cooling off since '06.
    Last edited by davidI; 02-19-2008 at 06:49 AM.

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    Originally posted by davidI


    The reason service rig company prices have gone down during booms has nothing to do with collusion between oil companies. It's usually because the companies get more rigs & crews going to keep up with demand and then they reach a point of over-supply and prices go down. If anything, during the most recent high-priced environment, it was the service companies colluding to maintain smaller fleet sizes and keep prices high. I read several reports that companies were not building up their fleets so as to keep demand high and prevent over-supplying the market as they had done in the past.


    Wow. that seems kind of counter-intuitive don't you think? If you were a service company in the middle of a huge boom what would you do?
    a.) Keep your work force small and charge a higher margin, provide crappy service to a small number clients and thus limit your market share and profits or
    b.) Hire as many people as you can and buy as much equipment as you can and try to gain market share and make more money serving more clients albeit it at a lower margin

    Most service companies were understaffed because there WAS NO STAFF TO HIRE. I speak from experience as I work for a service company and know many people in service companies.

    Currently there is a bigger shortage in labour because the activity dropped and a lot of people quit and found better jobs in town. Why work on the rig for 18/hr when you can make 15/hr at Chicken on the Way?


    You are correct that the royalty report was not released until the fall (September 18th, 2007 to be exact). What you fail to take into account is that the fact a review was going to take place was announced Feb. 16 of 2007. The uncertainty of that (along with environmental policy questions regarding carbon emission costs, both federal and provincial) paired with the high operating costs and decrease in the price of gas is what really caused a drop in spending & the # of rigs. If the economics are there, oil companies will drill. I work for one of the largest Canadian Oil Companies and have several friends who work within the planning groups for expenditures. I'll tell you right now that those are the reasons capital is being re-allocated. You're correct that the income trust tax change had a large impact on companies, but it affects all Canadian Energy trusts the same way. There are several trusts that are still around and doing ok, and they're still spending money - just not in Alberta! I don't think oil companies are really hurting, but I am saying there will be a slowdown in Alberta as capital is spent in places with better RORs. Just look at the increase in land sale activity in BC & Sask. How can that be attributed to lower gas prices & changes to the tax structure for income trusts???
    OK so the Royalty review was announced in Feb 2007. But as I have been saying the slow down started in late 2006 so this point to me at least is moot. I'm trying to show that slowdown was a natural retraction from the high in activity due to the high price of natural gas and rising price of oil and rediculars prices of service companies.

    Doesn't that support what I said in regards to the price staying between $8 & $11? If there is adequate supply, which there is, there will not be some huge price increase that is going to jump start shallow gas drilling in Alberta. It's nearly spring which usually causes for prices to drop even lower. I probably should have said between $7-10 in the near term (ie. 6 months).


    I don't understand how 11 dollars is 'almost' 14 dollars. 11 dollars is 11 dollars. If a well is not economic at 11 dollars, the company doesn't say "meh, it's almost 14 dollars so it's almost economic so I guess we should drill it". If the royalty review does adjust rates for lower production wells and wells with multiple horizontal legs producing out of 1 vertical well bore (which they certainly should) it should increase drilling activity in Alberta again. Unfortunately, that won't be until 2009 since most companies have already announced their '08 budgets.
    OK i dont think I really made a point in that statement it was 1 in the morning... LOL

    You are absolutely right that budgets have been adjusted to include the new Royalty structure, however agian I'm just trying to show that we had already peaked in activity in 2006 and the Royalty review was the 4th (and last) part of a perfect storm so to speak.


    Lots of companies work out of BC & Sask. Their head office may be based out of Alberta but that doesn't mean they don't have corporate entities in BC & Sask. Also, the workers may be 'from' AB and NFLD, but if they are working in BC & Sask or are living in BC & Sask then guess where they're spending their money (and possibly paying their taxes).
    Most of the rig workers come 'from'* AB period. They drive to where the rig is working or get flown in by their drilling contractor. Currently there are lots of rigs working in BC and Sask, and again most of the people on those rigs are FROM AB. Yes im sure a few more people will end up working in those other provinces, but the infrastructure and operations for all the large service companies are in AB. You still pay taxes in AB. You spend your perdium in a shitty hotel in Sask.

    *From: Meaning they live and work and pay taxes in...

    Once again, I'm not necessarily against a slow down...I actually think Alberta needed to slow down for things to be sustainable to any degree. I just know things are slowing down and now it's just a matter of how much things slow down. I can't recall a time in the last few years where I received 3 e-mails in the same day from friends who were layed off prior to the long weekend.

    I enjoy the different view points and I'll admit I like to play devils advocate quite often. I do think there will be more layoffs and the economy will cool off substantially (can also be seen in housing starts). Your chart is great and I think it supports the fact that things have been cooling off since '06.
    I think you're right but I see a recovery starting late 2008 and 2009. I see service companies charging MORE money for the same services they were forced to cut prices on before. I also see oil dropping in price save any more geopolitical nonsense and refineries in Texas exploding. This causing some layoffs among operators. I see a slowdown in the GP area as I believe it heavily linked to NG drilling, however, its the natural hub for any new work taking place around Dawson and Peace River will go through the roof soon as well as everything Sure Northern owns between there and Ft Mac.

    But who knows really... This whole business could change just as fast as it all started.

    So to sum things up the slowdown was already going due to other factors before the Royalty Review was announced.
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    Originally posted by benyl


    Glad the ignorant are out to play.

    Simply, no, it isn't going to crash. Things will be a lot slower than they are now. No new investments and no new jobs. You might have to go back to your job at Tim Hortons.
    Will that mean that coffee prices drop to match other provinces? You know there is inflation in Alberta when it's cheaper to get an extra large double double in B.C.

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    Originally posted by broken_legs

    Wow. that seems kind of counter-intuitive don't you think? If you were a service company in the middle of a huge boom what would you do?
    a.) Keep your work force small and charge a higher margin, provide crappy service to a small number clients and thus limit your market share and profits or
    b.) Hire as many people as you can and buy as much equipment as you can and try to gain market share and make more money serving more clients albeit it at a lower margin
    I agree it's counter-intuitive. That's probably why I remember reading about it so well - it was interesting from a management perspective. I wish I had the articles somewhere...I think they were in the Petroleum News or on the DOB. Anyways, they basically said that in the past whenever there were booms the service companies invested in more service rigs and more crews to grow in size and accommodate the demand (makes sense, right?). I guess the issue they were having was that all of the service companies would do this and supply would increase to meet the demand and prices would fall. So quite quickly, the prices fell back into check and they were operating with more rigs and more crews at the same old rates. Still good for the service companies because they were making profits at their old rates and now they're making profits on even more rigs. Apparently, the problem always was that with every boom comes a bust and when the bust came around, there was all of this idle equipment that still hadn't been paid off. The jist of the article was that the service companies had learned their lessons in the past and although the prices were high, they were resisting the growth that they used to strive for. Interesting business case..

    OK so the Royalty review was announced in Feb 2007. But as I have been saying the slow down started in late 2006 so this point to me at least is moot. I'm trying to show that slowdown was a natural retraction from the high in activity due to the high price of natural gas and rising price of oil and rediculars prices of service companies.
    I agree that the slowdown started in 2006. My point is that the Royalty Review has caused for things to slow even more. Things pulling back cannot be attributed to one thing, it's a combination of variables.

    You are absolutely right that budgets have been adjusted to include the new Royalty structure, however agian I'm just trying to show that we had already peaked in activity in 2006 and the Royalty review was the 4th (and last) part of a perfect storm so to speak.
    Agreed. I'm not sure if it's the last part of the storm though. If there is a Global Recession then oil prices may also fall. I don't think it's likely in the near term but it's certainly a possibility.

    Most of the rig workers come 'from'* AB period. They drive to where the rig is working or get flown in by their drilling contractor. Currently there are lots of rigs working in BC and Sask, and again most of the people on those rigs are FROM AB. Yes im sure a few more people will end up working in those other provinces, but the infrastructure and operations for all the large service companies are in AB. You still pay taxes in AB. You spend your perdium in a shitty hotel in Sask.

    *From: Meaning they live and work and pay taxes in...
    For the most part I agree. I'm a rotator out of the Middle East after all. Most people I work with live in Calgary but work over here. My point was more that housing prices in Saskatchewan are projected to increase faster than in Alberta this year due to people moving from AB there for work. People will always chase the 'next' boom and since corporate investment is going there and the cost of living hasn't been inflated like it has in AB, a lot of people who now find themselves out of work will be looking at that next opportunity.

    I think you're right but I see a recovery starting late 2008 and 2009. I see service companies charging MORE money for the same services they were forced to cut prices on before. I also see oil dropping in price save any more geopolitical nonsense and refineries in Texas exploding. This causing some layoffs among operators. I see a slowdown in the GP area as I believe it heavily linked to NG drilling, however, its the natural hub for any new work taking place around Dawson and Peace River will go through the roof soon as well as everything Sure Northern owns between there and Ft Mac.
    Tough to predict. You may be right and things could pick up in '08. I think it will take a few more years as too many people have been burned by investing in the small caps that were destroyed by government policy. Similarly, I think the pressure for environmental policy change will cause for continued uncertainty until the government steps up and makes a decision. From my discussions with a couple of the big wigs, they'd prefer the gov't just come out and make a policy (even if it costs companies more) so that they have a framework to make decisions within. Right now, it's tough for them to make major capital investments as they don't know what the worst case scenario is.

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    Originally posted by davidI


    I agree it's counter-intuitive. That's probably why I remember reading about it so well - it was interesting from a management perspective. I wish I had the articles somewhere...I think they were in the Petroleum News or on the DOB. Anyways, they basically said that in the past whenever there were booms the service companies invested in more service rigs and more crews to grow in size and accommodate the demand (makes sense, right?). I guess the issue they were having was that all of the service companies would do this and supply would increase to meet the demand and prices would fall. So quite quickly, the prices fell back into check and they were operating with more rigs and more crews at the same old rates. Still good for the service companies because they were making profits at their old rates and now they're making profits on even more rigs. Apparently, the problem always was that with every boom comes a bust and when the bust came around, there was all of this idle equipment that still hadn't been paid off. The jist of the article was that the service companies had learned their lessons in the past and although the prices were high, they were resisting the growth that they used to strive for. Interesting business case..


    So perhaps there was a service company here or there that followed this mantra. However I think the vast majority or service companies saw opportunity and went after it, and thus we had the massive round of layoffs. If they really followed this counter-intuitive business plan to any real degree we wouldn't have seen a massive migration of skilled workers from OFS into other jobs. I work for a service company and I cna tell you that we were hiring people like crazy and taking every job we could get. Canada is a tight market there is lots of competition for all the high volume low tier crap jobs we have here.


    I agree that the slowdown started in 2006. My point is that the Royalty Review has caused for things to slow even more. Things pulling back cannot be attributed to one thing, it's a combination of variables.
    Good were agreed.

    Agreed. I'm not sure if it's the last part of the storm though. If there is a Global Recession then oil prices may also fall. I don't think it's likely in the near term but it's certainly a possibility.
    Well I am a believer that the price of oil will drop and see some high 60s sometime soon. When that happens in conjunction with the collapse of the world financial markets we'll be hurtin and then everyone will blame the royalty scheme just like everyone blamed the last big (world) recession that affect Alberta on the National energy Program. But it's all too hard to predict, just tossin around some ideas for now.

    haha As I write this: OPEC announces they will consider cutting production, oil hits 98/barrel today...

    For the most part I agree. I'm a rotator out of the Middle East after all. Most people I work with live in Calgary but work over here. My point was more that housing prices in Saskatchewan are projected to increase faster than in Alberta this year due to people moving from AB there for work. People will always chase the 'next' boom and since corporate investment is going there and the cost of living hasn't been inflated like it has in AB, a lot of people who now find themselves out of work will be looking at that next opportunity.
    Well I'm glad you agree here. However I'll have to challenge your assumptions on housing prices in Saskatchewan. Speaking from experience (as I know many people who invest in real estate at work) most of them bought houses in Saskatoon and Regina last year. That market is being driven partly by uranium and Agriculture, but I believe that the majority of the appreciation in real estate prices there is due to speculation and a large inflow of investment dollars from equity rich Albertans, just like whats happening in BC. (see real estate driven economy FTL)

    Tough to predict. You may be right and things could pick up in '08. I think it will take a few more years as too many people have been burned by investing in the small caps that were destroyed by government policy. Similarly, I think the pressure for environmental policy change will cause for continued uncertainty until the government steps up and makes a decision. From my discussions with a couple of the big wigs, they'd prefer the gov't just come out and make a policy (even if it costs companies more) so that they have a framework to make decisions within. Right now, it's tough for them to make major capital investments as they don't know what the worst case scenario is.
    Again those are some of my ideas, i'd love everything to be busy and happy for everyone. However I think we've gone too far too fast and the world is ready for a big correction. MAybe someone whos more upto date on technical analysis of things can comment but the high volatility in world markets seems to me like a sign that things are going to crash soon.

    Good Discussion

    I dont pretend to know it all im just learning as I go it's nice to consider different points of view
    Last edited by broken_legs; 02-19-2008 at 11:39 AM.
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    Originally posted by 4wheeldrift
    Consulting engineering really didn't take much of a hit from the royalty review. Some projects got throttled back and some shelved, but most companies were already so busy they had more work in house than they had people to do it. That was true of the company I work for before the review, and it's still true now. Some companies did take a bit of a hit, but the market for engineers and technologists is still so hot that it only helped out the companies that were and are still so desperate.

    The guys who got smacked were the drilling outfits and the service companies, and some of the smaller outfits doing exploration and development. And in most of those cases the royalty review isn't the only factor to blame in that happening, it's just one of them. Cost of construction, uncertainty relating to federal clean air regulations, new and tighter environmental regulations and a host of other factors are all weighing heavily at the moment. But even with natural gas and conventional oil taking a hit, there's still so much tarsands work going on that the bottom isn't likely to fall out any time soon with the price of oil where it is.

    Good point. I am no longer really invovled in scoping my own projects so for how busy things are and where the work is coming is pretty much a mystery to me.

    Your post makes sense though.
    Cos...

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