Calgary Real Estate Prediction

[jadeboy]

For August 2008 - Average sales price for a house in Calgary drops 9%.

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...e-fb518a82ec21

What is your prediction and why for the rest of 2008 and 2009 and when will the market pickup. Please keep it short and simple.

I will start...

Rest of 2008

Assumes 485K average price.

House price drops - 15% ($ 412 K)

- Price of oil will continue to drop
- Calgary job market will still be softening
- Canada will go in to a recession

2009 Q1-Q2

House price drops - 20% ($ 388 K)

- Canada will be in a recession
- Calgary will have a small growth
- US will be in a recession
- Price of oil will be $75

2009 Q3-Q4

House price drops - 25% ($ 365 K)

- Canada will slowly move out of recession
- Calgary will have a small growth
- US will slowly move out of recession
- Price of oil will be $100

2010 - market will pickup and US and Canada economic no longer be in a recession.

[Supa Dexta]

Accumulating % or from current levels?

[kenny]

Originally posted by Supa Dexta
Accumulating % or from current levels?

LOL thats what I was wondering. I read the post and based on the way it is presented, a $400,000 house today would be worth $204,000 by Q3-Q4 2009.

Prices have already retreated, I really doubt we are going to see another 25% drop. Perhaps the over-priced houses will drop by 25% but the market median/avg will not.

[Xtrema]

I doubt we will see average price of $360K. It'll probably be closer to $400K once settled down. Even if you take the supply & demand out of consideration, it still take some $$$ to built a new home. Building material and labor cost more than 5 years ago, so it's hard to see it drop back to 5 year ago price.

If it does drop below $360K, I doubt you want to stay in this town because it will take quite a huge unemployment number panic the market like that.

At least we know OPEC will try to keep oil above $100. So I don't think we'll see a crash that bad. I predict another 10% adjustment and it should be stable for 2-3 years.

[SilverRex]

something tells me some place will be hit much harder, aka vancouver considering post-olympic tendancy the infastructure cools way down, add the fact that there are people paying 60% of their income to support their mortagage when it falls, it will be hit hard and fast. And it may bring calgary down with it.

I think the avg will be in the 350s with certain sales reaching 300 because of desperation. we will be around this mark for a year or two before normal growth resumes

[khtm]

Originally posted by jadeboy
Canada will go in to a recession

Considering that the definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and the US hasn't even gone into a recession yet, I'd say you're definitely wrong with this prediction.

[BlkMaxima]

I wish the OP was right. I want to upsize in the next 3-4 years.

[rage2]

Originally posted by jadeboy
For August 2008 - Average sales price for a house in Calgary drops 9%.

... blah...

2010 - market will pickup and US and Canada economic no longer be in a recession.

haha let me guess, you missed out by not buying a house in 2003? .

[max_boost]

^^

lol asshole. probably true though. haha

[civic_rida]

I think 2009 will be a good year for the u.s. and a bad year for canada. We will probably not go into recession but a slow down for sure.

[The Cosworth]

Originally posted by SilverRex
it will be hit hard and fast. And it may bring calgary down with it.

I think the avg will be in the 350s with certain sales reaching 300 because of desperation. we will be around this mark for a year or two before normal growth resumes

Vancouver will see a slow but a crash, no way. They are out of room. You should see some of the houses facing the iron workers out of north van built on the sides of cliffs cause there is no more room.

Also how are calgary, and vancouver's economies tied? We are oil and gas and farming, they are telecom, banking, electronics and software, shipping, tourism, etc.

[Redlyne_mr2]

Next year will be determined by what happens on Nov 4th.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Redlyne_mr2
Next year will be determined by what happens on Nov 4th.

As bad as this sound, Calgary will boom again if McCain wins and bomb the shit out of Iran.

[HRD2PLZ]

I was talking with an Appraiser in Vancovuer on behalf of a client and I was curious about what's going to happen out there after the 2010 Olympics. I was hoping I could pick up some property on the cheap. I figured the market would slow down after the Olympics. Apparently, they are predicting that if their market is hurt at all, it should be minor. Many of the new builds are being bought up by investors and with the high price of real estate in GVA many people are forced to rent. I guess we'll have to see how it turns out.

Despite what headlines fly around for our current market, it can be really busy out there. Many sellers are sticking to their prices and for all of the available inventory, its actually pretty slim pickings out there. A lot of my buyers are taking their time, not so they can low-ball and get a better deal, but because we are having such a hard time finding something that will work for them.

[lint]

Originally posted by HRD2PLZ
I was talking with an Appraiser in Vancovuer on behalf of a client and I was curious about what's going to happen out there after the 2010 Olympics. I was hoping I could pick up some property on the cheap. I figured the market would slow down after the Olympics. Apparently, they are predicting that if their market is hurt at all, it should be minor. Many of the new builds are being bought up by investors and with the high price of real estate in GVA many people are forced to rent. I guess we'll have to see how it turns out.

Despite what headlines fly around for our current market, it can be really busy out there. Many sellers are sticking to their prices and for all of the available inventory, its actually pretty slim pickings out there. A lot of my buyers are taking their time, not so they can low-ball and get a better deal, but because we are having such a hard time finding something that will work for them.

This man speaketh the truth

[barmanjay]

I was townhouse searching for my brother out there in Van

truely slim pickings - even for up to 600k

as well, My sister is keeping tabs on the value of her 1000 sq/ft 2bd condo still just under the 400k mark in steveston

Speculating she might get 400 just before the olympics

rent for 6 months,.. then purchase a house/townhouse

[jadeboy]

Originally posted by rage2

haha let me guess, you missed out by not buying a house in 2003? .

hehe.. No..I don't mind you being critical.

Please everyone post your predictions do not just be critical.

[Canmorite]

$75/bbl? Well, good luck.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Canmorite
$75/bbl? Well, good luck.

Not too mention that the boom started with oil around $45/bbl.

[SteveMo600]

Originally posted by Canmorite
$75/bbl? Well, good luck.

I'm gonna second that. I really don't see Oil going that low.

Although, 1-2 years ago nobody thought it would ever hit triple digits and here we are. Anything can happen.