The Bottom

[jadeboy]

Price of housing in Calgary is still falling..

What/When do you think it will hit bottom... what will happen this spring?

My prediction for the bottom (Winter 2010):

SFH

Average 360K
Median 325K

Spring will be absolutely terrible.. Condos will be flooded and have the steepest decline.... SFH will be affected with high inventory... We will be still in recession and layoff will continue...


Some Stats

Jan 2009

Single Family House

Average 413K
Median 374K

Feb 1-14 2009

Single Family House

Average 409K
Median 375K

[max_boost]

Hey man, no real estate links allowed.

BUT, I tend to agree with those numbers. I see another 15-20% decline in SFH in 2009. The decline is occurring everywhere else. I'm baffled when people don't think there's more negative impact to be felt.

Ahhh, there I go being all negative again.

[JAYMEZ]

^^ lol so negative all the time

[ckangarloo]

I have noticed that February has been markedly busier than January in terms of houses/condos sold but is WAY down compared to February 08. Watch for the shills to come out saying the bottom is here, get houses while they are cheap, sales are picking up!
'09 and '10, prices will continue to decline and then stay low for a while. That is my view at least. No more of this irrational exuberance that resulted in this crazy spike of prices (that is until the people buying houses forget about what happened in 2003-2007).
And don't give me the low interest rate excuse.
Who cares about low interest rates when one is sitting on a depreciating asset?

Max, I share your negativity!

[civic_rida]

I think the price of the home will determine how long and how low it will go.
I think the 800 000 plus homes in calgary are going to be hit hard.
There seems to be no demand for them.

[Redlyne_mr2]

Shouldnt this be in the unrealistic seller thread?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I think the price of the home will determine how long and how low it will go.
I think the 800 000 plus homes in calgary are going to be hit hard.
There seems to be no demand for them.

Yep. Who the hell would want to take on such a big mortgage in these uncertain times?

A few houses down on my street is a brand new Virgina style red brick house. Very nice btw but it was originally listed at 1.6mil and it was reduced to 1.4 and it's not moving. A couple blocks down is a very nice brand new attached 2 story. This one is offered at $750K. Inner-city is the but you have a very select # of buyers interested in paying that kind of premium.

I still tell the wife, if she would have let me pulled the trigger in selling our place 2 years back we could buy it back right now and be $200K ahead lol I probably would have pissed the difference away in HOU anyway so I guess it works out the same in the end.

[Masked Bandit]

Originally posted by ckangarloo
I have noticed that February has been markedly busier than January in terms of houses/condos sold but is WAY down compared to February 08. Watch for the shills to come out saying the bottom is here, get houses while they are cheap, sales are picking up!
'09 and '10, prices will continue to decline and then stay low for a while. That is my view at least. No more of this irrational exuberance that resulted in this crazy spike of prices (that is until the people buying houses forget about what happened in 2003-2007).
And don't give me the low interest rate excuse.
Who cares about low interest rates when one is sitting on a depreciating asset?

Max, I share your negativity!

The only thing I can think of that would send the prices skyward again (to the point of stupidity) is $150 a barrel oil. Then it's back to pure speculation.

[civic_rida]

Oil is having trouble staying above the 30 dollar range.

[extm88]

there are lots of homes selling in less than a week right now. These homes are in the 250-400 range. Everything else is next to impossible as people in the range higher than this are either
A) waiting it out to get a 400k house in the 350 range
or
B) asking 400+ for a home that would sell for 399 but they think that this market doesnt hurt them at all.

[ExtraSlow]

Some food for thought, the absorbtion rate for both single family homes and condos has gotten lower, which means that the homes that are selling, are selling faster.
Calgary Real Estate Market Weekly Update - February 14, 2009

Spring is traditionally a faster time in Calgary. Probably something to do with the weather, and school years coming to a close.

Oil is traditionally higher in the summer, and that would be a psychological boost to people in the energy industry.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Some food for thought, the absorbtion rate for both single family homes and condos has gotten lower, which means that the homes that are selling, are selling faster.
Calgary Real Estate Market Weekly Update - February 14, 2009

Spring is traditionally a faster time in Calgary. Probably something to do with the weather, and school years coming to a close.

Oil is traditionally higher in the summer, and that would be a psychological boost to people in the energy industry.

Still a considerable buyers market. Keep in mind that for especially condos a crap load of new condo will come online in 2009. This will increase inventory and without a matching increase in demand...

OUCH

[civic_rida]

Look at the price of oil today.
34.75

[Xtrema]

Love to see if the trend holds which I highly doubt.

It's just suppressed demand that got a jump by low interest rate similar to 2002/2003.

It's not real growth. The bottom should be at this time next year when the when we feel the worst impact of the lay offs (after EI runs out and lack of growth) and lacks of bonus for most employees due to a bad 2009.

[Jim Rome99]

I am very worried about the entire economy collapsing here in Alberta. Next month OPEC will meet and likely agree to cut production, if that fails to stimulate demand, Calgary is screwed. Oil is struggling to stay about $35/barrel right now, there is nothing stopping it from plunging all the way down to twenty bucks.

Anyone who is buying a house right now in Calgary is a sucker, there's no two ways about it. NOBODY on here can post a reply and tell me why house prices won't be substantially cheaper next year.

[Mckenzie]

Originally posted by Jim Rome99
I am very worried about the entire economy collapsing here in Alberta. Next month OPEC will meet and likely agree to cut production, if that fails to stimulate demand, Calgary is screwed. Oil is struggling to stay about $35/barrel right now, there is nothing stopping it from plunging all the way down to twenty bucks.

Anyone who is buying a house right now in Calgary is a sucker, there's no two ways about it. NOBODY on here can post a reply and tell me why house prices won't be substantially cheaper next year.

We will not have an entire collapse but there will be a lot of pain in the next 12 months. O&G does not account for the majority of the Albera GDP either so there are still industries that can support the economy.

However, as these layoffs and low prices trickle through the market, I don't see a rebound in asset prices anytime soon, real estate or other.

[Redlyne_mr2]

Originally posted by Jim Rome99

Anyone who is buying a house right now in Calgary is a sucker, there's no two ways about it. NOBODY on here can post a reply and tell me why house prices won't be substantially cheaper next year.

Markets will always rise and fall, fall and rise.. we will see this happen again in 20 years. We all have our predictions however it's very ignorant to say that someone who buys today is a sucker. It's never a bad time to buy realestate.. rates are low, lots of deals out there right now as well. Prices may go down more, they may not, rates may go down more, or they may not. One thing is for sure, if you don't see equity in your property today you will see equity in your property tomorrow.

[ckangarloo]

Originally posted by Redlyne_mr2
if you don't see equity in your property today you will see equity in your property tomorrow.

You are being sarcastic right?
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/0...omeequity.html
This was just over a year ago. Its gotten much worse.

If you one waits and saves for a couple of years, then one might be able to see some positive equity.

[AZ REALTY]

Originally posted by Redlyne_mr2
It's never a bad time to buy realestate.. rates are low, lots of deals out there right now as well.

I totally disagree! How is buying at the top of the market a good time to buy? How do you consider homes for sale in today's market a good deal and a wise purchase? Buying at the top of the market or as the market is declining can still sting alot of homeowners. What nobody can predict is how long it will take for the market to bottom and recover to the break-even point for these homeowners. If the market drops another 20% and takes 5 years to rebound to break-even, what happens if a family needs to move, loses their job, etc... in that time period? Real estate is just like the stock market, buy low and sell high.

[civic_rida]

Redlyne_mr2 just bought a place recently which is awesome and congrats to him.