The Bottom

[sputnik]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Absorbtion rate iws back under 5 for single family homes. That's not proof of "the bottom" but it's certainly one of the indicators.

Andrew Kyle - Stats page

Anecdotally speaking....

I have noticed fewer and fewer houses for sale in my area (Auburn Bay). Even the builder spec homes that were on the market for months are now all gone.

I have also noticed prices in my area go up a bit as well.

[JordanLotoski]

Its picking up for sure...as far as sales go. I have 2 estate homes listed there. hard as hell for some reason to move an estate home in Auburn bay

[sputnik]

Originally posted by MIWYFSHOT
Its picking up for sure...as far as sales go. I have 2 estate homes listed there. hard as hell for some reason to move an estate home in Auburn bay

I think people who want an estate home in Auburn Bay are still interested in waiting for the premium lots to come available.

I can't imagine wanting to buy an estate home that doesn't back onto the lake or green space.

[JordanLotoski]

Originally posted by sputnik


I think people who want an estate home in Auburn Bay are still interested in waiting for the premium lots to come available.

I can't imagine wanting to buy an estate home that doesn't back onto the lake or green space.

I hear you. I back the ridge in cranston and couldnt imagin now backing another house. for most people though its not a big issue. they look at the cost difference which can be 100-300 more and dont want to spend that.

[Canmorite]

Does anyone have a monthly chart of home prices? I can't find an updated one anywhere...

[cmyden]

^^^
http://www.andrewkyle.com/mlsca/home...e=weekly_stats

[autosm]

Originally posted by MIWYFSHOT


I think for that to happen our oil sands would have to be bombed. I wouldnt hold your breath. That house will sell for 580ish

I would not be surprized if it sold for 580 but the bottom will be lower than that.

[autosm]

Originally posted by sputnik


Keep dreaming.

Sounds like a 07, one who purchased at the peek? I think you are the one dreaming

You said the same thing last year when prices were 20% higher.

I guess if I was you I would tell my self its all a bad dream.

[01RedDX]

.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by cmyden
^^^
http://www.andrewkyle.com/mlsca/home...e=weekly_stats

Thanks! Anything longer term, like 10+ years?

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by 01RedDX


The price you mentioned for that type of home would be pre-2003 level... if that happens we will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than we do now, certainly bigger than falling home prices.

I would definitely pay $580K for that if I don't have anything against Panorama Hills.

[cmyden]

The price you mentioned for that type of home would be pre-2003 level... if that happens we will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than we do now, certainly bigger than falling home prices.

(casts glance at neighbors to our south)

[cmyden]

Thanks! Anything longer term, like 10+ years?

http://calgaryrealestatemarketblog.w...y-real-estate/

That's inflation adjusted and not month-to-month unfortunately.

If you do find anything else be sure to post it.

[autosm]

http://dynamic-evolution.com/ehb/090304-3.jpg

An interesting chart

[Jericho99]

Stock prices, oil prices hit pre-03 levels i dont see what makes RE in alberta immune to that.

[Kloubek]

So, I've seen the charts on the link cmyden supplied. Doesn't look like we've seen any upturn lately...

So to all you real estate gurus: Do you think we've finally hit the bottom?

I was going to sell my place. But you know what - it seems to me that it is a better idea holding onto property and renting it out by this point...

[blownz]

I doubt we are at the bottom yet.

I keep holding off building a new house for this very reason. I am pretty sure if I start building today, in 11 months when the house is finished both places will be worth 20-30k less which is more of a hit then I am willing to take.

[AndrewMZ3]

Originally posted by blownz
I doubt we are at the bottom yet.

I keep holding off building a new house for this very reason. I am pretty sure if I start building today, in 11 months when the house is finished both places will be worth 20-30k less which is more of a hit then I am willing to take.

http://www.guaranteed2010.com/

[blownz]

^ I actually talked to a builder in Edmonton that has a similar program. I even had them look at my place. The amount they would "guarantee" was 45k less than a realtor told me and 15k less then a smaller home with no landscaping just sold for in my crescent.

It isn't as good as it sounds.

[cmyden]

We won't know when the bottom is until approximately 6 months after the bottom

That being said, the potential for downward prices seems much greater than the potential for upward prices.

Just take a listen to all the news out there, the layoffs, the wage freezes, the mergers, etc.

http://www.caodc.ca/rigcounts.htm#wkwestdrill
March 24, 2009 - 10.5% of Alberta rigs are drilling

Compare that to March 25, 2008 (22.7%)


One of the best writeups I've seen in a while was just posted today on the Edmonton Housing Bust Blog...

http://www.edmontonhousingbust.blogspot.com/

It's regarding income, interest rates, inflation, and house prices, and how each variable affects the other. Definitely a great read.


Unemployment numbers will be the major factor I think.

The bottom line, if people aren't working, they can't afford their cookie cutter historically overpriced home, no matter how low the interest rates are.