Official Long-term Investments Thread

[max_boost]

I'm definitely taking the long game approach. I don't even wanna look up my old posts on this subject haha so embarrassing!

I don't think there's anything too risky in my portfolio right now.

ETFs - XIU/XAW/XQQ/ZAG

MJ - HMMJ/WEED/ACB/APH

Stocks - Shaw/Telus/Pembina/Bell/RioCan/Boardwalk/Fortis and a couple Beyond recommended Bird Construction & Capital Power Corp

FN/CHR/RSI I'll pick up in the next batch of purchases.

Finally growing up now I guess. Done with cars, no debt, no major responsibilities. Thanks for all the comments as I am learning lots from you guys.

[JustinL]

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Anyone own TransAlta Renewables Inc. (RNW.TO)?
Looks like it has a nice dividend/good future growth possible in that sector

Definitely an interesting company. Making decent money in a pretty hot industry.

[JustinL]

What percentage do you guys hold in foreign currency, or foreign companies? I've been tracking my portfolio in CAD, but notice that some days the equities lose money, but the value increases with the foreign exchange into CAD. I think I'm about 40% Canadian, 40% American, and 20% European.

[LBG]

I'm interested in buying 2 etfs qqc and xqq. Both etfs are currency hedge-CAD. What's everyone opinions on the currency hedge-cad ?

[JDMMAN]

Anyone's thoughts on PEY.TO?

[roopi]

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Anyone's thoughts on PEY.TO?

I've never looked at this company but when I saw a 8.75% dividend that means a dividend cut will be coming soon for sure.

[Manhattan]

Looking for investment advice on a forum...

[dirtsniffer]

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I've never looked at this company but when I saw a 8.75% dividend that means a dividend cut will be coming soon for sure.

Based on my understanding, it's a very similiar situation to PONY / 7G / Tourmaline. Very closely tied to AECO pricing and gas is in the shitter with very little optimism in the market.

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Looking for investment advice on a forum...

[JDMMAN]

Looking at the Financials for PEY.TO, they actually look much better in 2017 than 2018. Interestingly enough, these guys shut-in production and bring on production quite quickly.

[zhao]

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Looking for investment advice on a forum...

Better than looking for it on something like motley fool . At least people here aren't looking to pump their junk so they can dump it, or dispensing randomly generated word salad articles for advice.


peyto is one of the better NG companies in Canada, and that dividend was set when the stock was worth a lot more a year ago, so it's probably sustainable because not much has changed with NG companies except for thier long term growth potential. If you really want to go in to Canadian NG peyto is a good pick. However, NG is pretty shit right now for image, sentiment, hype, etc etc, and I wouldn't be surprised if tehy all go down from this point. I think it would be safer to wait and buy closer to the end of the month but before q4 results if you're looking for a good entry point. Also brace yourself as it may go down a lot more from here over the next 6-9 months.

IMO if you're long NG will probably pay off, as the prices these companies are at now are very cheap... but it could be a year, or 3, or more before it pays off.

[RealJimmyJames]

Isn’t there a big problem with takeaway capacity for natural gas in wcsb?

[zhao]

And them some. AECO prices highlight that pretty well imo and companies literally had to pay people to take their gas at various points this year.

But everyone looks at these times with hindsight and kicks themselves that they didn't buy when it was rock bottom. Trying to figure out where rock bottom is is the problem though lol. Trying not to look for greener pastures is another problem also.

[roopi]

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peyto is one of the better NG companies in Canada, and that dividend was set when the stock was worth a lot more a year ago, so it's probably sustainable because not much has changed with NG companies except for thier long term growth potential.

Of course the dividend was set when the stock had a higher price. That doesn't mean it is sustainable. There is a reason the share price is dropping. If there was no worry about the dividend do you think the price would drop. Who wouldn't buy this stock knowing they are getting 8.75 percent return guaranteed. It will get cut.

[zhao]

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Of course the dividend was set when the stock had a higher price. That doesn't mean it is sustainable. There is a reason the share price is dropping. If there was no worry about the dividend do you think the price would drop. Who wouldn't buy this stock knowing they are getting 8.75 percent return guaranteed. It will get cut.

maybe, maybe not. Profit and dividend sustainability doesn't necessary drive share price (otherwise every MJ company would be worth 2 cents a share still). Share price is often driven by speculating on the future, so we have companies like CJ and peyto with giant dividends and yet oddly rapidly falling share prices because there is no growth potential. Not too much has changed with the companies other then the NPD and liberals took their bright future and hype away. Now i haven't looked at peyto to see how sustainable their dividend is, but I looked at CJ (which is another retarded dividend), and CJ's seems all good as long as oil stays above $50. So CJ has had a better dividend than Peyto in relation to share price, and it was still fine with little risk of a dividend clawback.

CHR i bought when it had a better dividend than peyto also. What happened to CHR? share price increased until the dividend was more around 5-6%. Their dividend was totally sustainable at 8-9% and was a key factor in the share price going up.

So peyto could be fine holding that dividend even if peyto sees $10 a share.

[dirtsniffer]

Thanks for the heads up on CJ. Seems like a good place to park some money for a year or two. Hard to beat that dividend.

[ExtraSlow]

Anyone into MIND ETF? Seems to me the smartest investment in the market....

[roopi]

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Thanks for the heads up on CJ. Seems like a good place to park some money for a year or two. Hard to beat that dividend.

1 year ago CJ cut their dividend in half. No company pays out 8-9% a year for long. Either they make more money so the yield isn't that high or they cut the dividend.

[dirtsniffer]

"The 2018 capital budget is designed to achieve significant growth in adjusted funds flow per share and maintaining the Company's annualized dividend at $0.42/share... Cardinal's 2018 budget is expected to produce pre-hedging adjusted funds flow of $132 million, assuming a royalty rate of 15.8%, an oil price of $55/bbl, US/Cdn exchange rate of 0.78 and a $1.75/mcf AECO natural gas price. After taking into account Cardinal's current commodity hedging exposure, adjusted funds flow is expected to be approximately $125 million."

The $0.035 monthly dividend has been in place since jan 2016 when the share price was $8 (ranging between ~$6 and $10). Seem relatively stable to me, but I am open to opinions before I open a position.

[Manhattan]

There's a right and a wrong reason to buy CJ. You're basically flipping a coin with their dividend since it depends on where oil goes. Almost never a good idea to buy a struggling company purely for the dividend since a high dividend usually indicates high amount of risk. Ask yourself if its really worth taking on so much risk for an additional 3% yield when you can buy Enbridge or something similar that pays out 5%. Chesswood (CHW) is a equipment leasing company that pays out a similar dividend and their underlying business a lot more stable although still economically sensitive. Makes more sense to buy CJ because the assets are undervalued (60% of book value) while getting paid to wait for valuation to appreciate.

[SilverRex]

Oil

oil is at a pretty critical area. it is overbought imo as well as multiple overhead resistance lines. this zone you would think should mark a short term top forcing oil to backtest at least the 55 area. However if it pushes thru as a breakout this will no longer be a rising wedge (orange lines) and immediately opens up the 70 area as the next target on a parallel rising channel (green)