Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Meback]

Well i dont know whats happening with gold miners, but I eliminated my kinross position for 30 bucks lol. Seems like even though there is strength in gold, miners are a bit under pressure. Still holding YRI. So still have some exposure if it does shoot up tomorrow.

Still holding meg and bte. Shit is in the green. Wanted to sell have my position and take some profit, but i m giving it a chance to make some more money.

[SilverRex]

gold is starting the day being sold off this morning, mostly due to the USD dollar regaining some bounce as it is near a critical area.

so unless panic dollar buyers are selling into strength and further weaken the USD, gold will continue to be under pressure.

as you can see gold is back at the bottom end of the rising (smaller) triangle consolidation. RSI is oversold. certainly a bounce here would calm all of us gold holders. however the 1320 larger consolidation triangle (orange line) is not far under and I cant help but wonder if gold wants to have a date with that area before launching.

market does not always make it easy for both bears and bulls even if you pick the right trend.

we shall see if option expiry will help.

all I know is all the massive CoT short positions will have to cover at some point. Are they just trying to push gold as low as possible to cover? or will they have to be forced to cover at higher prices?

time will tell. stay patient.

[Vanish3d]

wow getting killed with gold... and gas....

My whole portfolio took a massive hit between yeseterday and today.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
wow getting killed with gold... and gas....

My whole portfolio took a massive hit between yeseterday and today.

I have my stops with Natgas at break even, if it takes me out then will wait for a lower entry.

oil is early in it's intermediate cycle which means it will have 12-14 weeks to run (of course with daily cycle low corrections along the way)

the energy sector has finally broken out of a multimonth consolidation channel. I expect this breakout to hold. so I wont be selling my oil shares any time soon

[KappaSigma]

Anyone know much about resolute energy, REN on us exchange? Aug been huge. Debt but termed out. Recent wells are coming on huge.

[SilverRex]

i am hoping OpEx will fuel gold's next rally out of this consolidation frustration.

here is a chart (not mine) and note the previous OpEx has been kind to gold

[SilverRex]

I wanted to post a silver chart today.

some significance because of the following

-has tested the 50 day moving average (something it has not done for over 2 months)
-RSI has reached extreme oversold (bottom is near)
-GSR gold to silver ratio near 70.00 which to me I think investor will begin to see value converting gold to silver

as long as silver does not make a lower low today, the green path suggesting the next rally should begin very shortly.

the alternate path (in red) is wave IV still has not complete and would then require price to dive under 19.20 and hit between 18.5-19.00 area. While I do not prefer this count, it is always a possibility.

so if gold does not breakout early next week, then the red path is more than likely.

bullish signs
silver needs to produce a swing low taking out 19.71+

bearish sign,
a lower low under today's low

[SilverRex]

a quick post on gold for the weekend.

gold's short term direction continues to hinge on where the USD is headed. while it looks weak, the US dollar may be due for a counter trend rally or new daily cycle that could continue to put pressure holding gold down.

as you can see, not much has changed for multiple weeks as gold continues to consolidate.

if gold does not breakout next week and the dollar continues to strengthen, then be prepare gold to test the larger triangle (orange) down to the low 1310s.

However, even if gold does breakout because the US dollar has a bit further down to go, the breakout in gold may not be sustainable so the near term top between 1380-1430 should limit any significant upside.

strategy is to be as flexible as possible.

[SilverRex]

as for oil

we have a massive inverted head and shoulder at play here, that puts a target into the 70s. Try not to get too excited just yet as it will not get there all in one push without daily cycle lows and corrections on the way.

it is very clear now that the intermediate cycle low has bottomed at 39 dollars and we are in the heart of a sub wave iii of I move.

I suspect oil should still have a little bit more upside next week but as we close in on 50, it should trigger a profit taking event as it is quite overbought in the short term.

if oil should fall dramatically I expect it will not break below the wave i top at 43.39 without beginning to question the move. in fact I think at worse a backtest of the trendline break some where between 44-45 would be max pain imo.

[Disoblige]

Anyone in GEVO or have thoughts about it? Looks like cheap entry with lots of potential.

[SilverRex]

looks like oil has started a wave iv correction. if the 50DMA doesnt hold just slightly under 48, next good support is right back at 46 which happens to be the 200DMA. for the time being, I do not see oil breaking the 200 DMA until it at least completes 5 waves up. (we only have 3 waves up right now) based on the time it took for wave 2, give it a day or two and see where it is at.

a 5th wave should push oil above 49.

as for gold, it looks like it finally did cave and wanting to test the bottom of the larger triangle pattern. sweet spot is around the 1320 area.

surprised how weak silver is. havent see the 18s for quite a long time. I may be tempted to go USLV if silver can hit 18.50-18.60

with the recent decline in metals, there is now more and more bearish talks of a much larger decline that could bring gold down under 1300 and silver back into the 17s.

That is why at this juncture, it is better to remain as flexible as possible. You just never know, a lower gold/silver prices only means a way better entry rather than the sky is falling is how I like to think of it.

gdx testing the low 29s is now very likely this week if not today. however if 29 does not hold, next support is 27

[SilverRex]

the only thing that would kind of mess around with the continuous weakness in the metals and even oil is if the US dollar suddenly makes a dash for another new low. As it appears the euro is trying to breakout from a down trendline while the dollar the breaking down from it's own.

if silver trades and sustains above 19.20 and gold above 1340, then this view is likely. so we shall see how the morning plays out. the metals should have no business in playing with those prices if the trend remains down for a couple of days.

[SilverRex]

so far big miners like abx, yamana and kinross are holding up extremely well <1% comparing to gdx and gdxj 2-3% in the red.

I wonder if a near term bottom is close.

[bspot]

Added USLV today. Dumped miners to scale into JNUG last week... ouch. Still have some bullets in the chamber waiting for JNUG, but exercising patience.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Added USLV today. Dumped miners to scale into JNUG last week... ouch. Still have some bullets in the chamber waiting for JNUG, but exercising patience.

im not doing anything today. my sweet spot remains with gold at 1320 and silver at 18.5-18.6 before I get tempted to open a position in USLV and perhaps increase my existing Jnug exposure.

[bspot]

^What's your average price on JNUG right now?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
^What's your average price on JNUG right now?

@298, mind you this was 1/3 of what I had when I loaded up around 201-210 and sold at 294.

a relatively small size to ensure I will not give back all of the gains even if miners drop back to the low in late July.

Yamana and Kinross makes up about 60% of my portfolio and I bought most of them in the low 5s. So I have lots of room to work with.

[bspot]

I'm similar, but overall way scaled back in gold compared to Brexit, and no longer holding any miners. If a big opportunity forms here, I'll be shifting gas/bio/energy money back over to gold.

JNUG at 297, USLV at 23.57. More weighted to USLV which is 20% of my portfolio right now. JNUG is only 7%

[SilverRex]

with the USD dollar remaining on the weak side both oil and gold looks a little alive today.

I was expecting oil to find a bottom between 46-47 and it certainly can bottom here and begin it's 5th wave higher than 49.

however it is still possible the 200EMA would be the perfect reversal spot (orange) at 46 oil. It does not change my holdings either way I am expecting oil to begin to move back up to test 50-51 oil once a near term bottom is in (and it may have been in this morning)at 46.50

worse case scenario is the red count down to the 44-45 area without breaking below 43.39 (we all should know by now that in EW terms, if this is an impulsive advancing 5 waves up confirming 39 as the intermediate bottom, it should not break below the prior wave 1 top at 43.39

[SilverRex]

looking at BTE again, (mind you Meg is really sort of in a similar pattern) in fact alot of energy shares are in a similar setup.

what is happening with energy shares is beginning to repeat the initial bottoming process. we are either in a wave 2 correction or a 1-2,1-2 setup either is setting up a bullish wave 3 move.

wave 3 will certainly take us to higher highs in the coming months.