Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

gdx

after gdx putting in 5 waves up, so far we have a 3 wave correction which implies, there is still hope that miners can make a move towards 25-28 this summer so long the correction does not break or close below 22.

[SilverRex]

ibb

the short term weakness for biotech held up. as long as ibb does not break below 297, the next big move should yet be another higher high >322. I may join the fun if price can come below 310 so the stop under 297 can offer a better risk/reward ratio

[SilverRex]

oil

the last big picture on oil I was expecting a bottom between 40-42, we came within pennies to 42 and I had taken the plunge with a position in bte.to at 2.89, so far so good. oil has broken out of the down channel which was only a matter of time. I will set my stop on bte and just see this position could turn into something if the view is correct with oil still wanting a date and hit 60-70 before the next crash to new lows.

bte has 5 waves up from the bottom which is a good sign as well.

[Disoblige]

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gdx
after gdx putting in 5 waves up, so far we have a 3 wave correction which implies, there is still hope that miners can make a move towards 25-28 this summer so long the correction does not break or close below 22.

GDX bounce is strong.

[asp integra]

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oil

the last big picture on oil I was expecting a bottom between 40-42, we came within pennies to 42 and I had taken the plunge with a position in bte.to at 2.89, so far so good. oil has broken out of the down channel which was only a matter of time. I will set my stop on bte and just see this position could turn into something if the view is correct with oil still wanting a date and hit 60-70 before the next crash to new lows.

bte has 5 waves up from the bottom which is a good sign as well.

Think we are going to see 60+ oil any time soon? What are your estimates?

[SilverRex]

gdx update #2

looks like gdx found support just shy of 22.15 this morning. very possible our wave (c) of (ii) bottom is in. this offers a very good risk reward setup. the next time gdx crosses above 22.85 should trigger an extremely bullish breakout.

[SilverRex]

fcx

with copper finally breaking out I really need to see fcx make a strong trending move. if this is wave 3 of 3 in progress, fcx should begin to launch without breaking below 12.00 or risk alt count back down to under 11.70

[SilverRex]

oil

after oil breaking out of the down channel for multiple weeks, my mental line in the sand is oil must hold above 43.00, my bte.to position is up a good 14% so I will use that as my mental stop and see how far she can go. oil also produced a weekly swing so this should be a good technical signal that would draw in more bulls

[SilverRex]

gdx

count wise, miners have fulfilled all waves to the penny. if there is a rally this summer. gdx must reverse here around 22 or this will induce a pretty bearish momentum to the downside.

[zhao]

zinc prices continue to climb. There is a strike situation pending in peru threatening about 10% of the world's production of zinc (as well as other major metals), but that also comes at a time when zinc stockpiles are falling like crazy on their own. 12 million or so tons of zinc mined and sold per year, with a stockpile on the london metal exchange of about 0.3 million tons translates in to any major disruption in production and we could see zinc prices skyrocket even more than i've been banking on (I largely think the short supply is fake, or at least not as real as it is on paper, but that in itself is irrelevant as the reason for the artificial short supply is to drive zinc prices up and the companies behind that are not going to screw themselves over the moment the short supply starts to come in to play for affecting zinc prices).

I figure this week TV could be in for another 5%+ increase in stock price.

As for other metals, I would say for the next 6 months a lot of boring metals should going up in value as there is a lot of drying up of stockpiles, and that means any mining stock actually producing metal should be seeing increased profits and share prices going up.

I've liked zinc the most, and TV is almost a pure play zinc producer, which is why I picked it.

[SilverRex]

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gold

just wanted to talk about the significance of gold's 6 year down trend line breakout. technically this is extremely bullish however it may still need to hold above this breakout (red line) for a few more days or even close the week above this for a better confirmation.

the only caution is that this breakout isnt on huge volume and miners continues to lag which is a concern. if we see price dropping back below the trendline then this is an extremely reverse weakness at hand and the weak summer doldrums will begin.

however if this is 'the' signal, then i would like to see price continue to make higher highs and at least reach or challenge the peak of the election night before topping. We may still get our typical summer weakness but it will be in the form of an expected correction and the back test (blue arrows) will then become possibly one of the best buying areas for the coming 8-10 months.

example would be the DOW breakout back in early 2016 when it too broke a similar significant down trendline, backtest and never looked back.

update: gold is challenging or backtesting the breakout trendline now. if this is a real breakout price needs to hold and make a strong reversal otherwise this could be a pretty big bull trap.

personally I have a mental support at 1258.8 if gold breaks this then it will be an extremely bearish case for the coming months.

looks like gold was never able to confirm reversal to take out 1260, and gdx broke the critical 22 support. I will now just stick to the original expectation that gold is fully in summer weakness right down to a August low. I may even scale back my position a little during all bounces and wait for a better long entry.

[Magic8Ball]

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looks like gold was never able to confirm reversal to take out 1260, and gdx broke the critical 22 support. I will now just stick to the original expectation that gold is fully in summer weakness right down to a August low. I may even scale back my position a little during all bounces and wait for a better long entry.

In respect to FCX and Gold...they would likely be considered more of a Copper play, But would you consider scaling back your holdings with them in light of what you are anticipating for weakness in Gold?

[meeiu]

Should see a nice pop on crude with the API draw numbers.

[SilverRex]

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In respect to FCX and Gold...they would likely be considered more of a Copper play, But would you consider scaling back your holdings with them in light of what you are anticipating for weakness in Gold?

my holding in fcx is small compare to my gold holdings so I will not do anything. as for gold I did scale back about 30%. either gold completely reverses and start invalidating key areas to the upside or a drop under 1200 would have me start to re-enter.

[SilverRex]

bte

5 waves up and 3 waves down. I would like to think bte is ready to make a higher move hopefully the inventory will support this notion

update: inventory draw heldup, so far so good. I want to see oil support hold above 45.75 or momentum will dissipate and make this recent rally corrective

[SilverRex]

oil broke 45.75 and became a corrective rally with price making a move under previous low of 44.51. now I need to see oil make a bottom here at 44. continuous closing below 44 would be another indication something else isnt right for the entire 42-47 rally. as long as oil can make a stand here at 44. the recent rally remains valid for continuation

again 44 needs to hold if oil is to produce an A=C correction of the 42-47 rally

[SilverRex]

fcx

last chart I was expected fcx to come back and retest 11.70, it got pretty darn close. with price now breaking the down neckline and closing above 12.00, it is very possible wave 2 is done an wave 3 in progress.

[SilverRex]

ibb

biotech, ever since it hit a wave (iii) top and with an extreme bullish sentiment, the correction was imminent. I suspect the initial thrust down to 310 was only wave a down. wave b topped around 316. and we are now in the final wave c down. with a mini head and shoulder target pointing towards 304. I think a good risk/reward entry would be the 300-304 box. if it gets there I will be planning to try some leverage with a tight stop under 297. if price breaks 297 then technically a bigger consolidation pattern may be at play.

[SilverRex]

dollar

here is my dollar expectation. ever since it topped in the 103 range and started a declining wedge. I was expecting price to break down and so far so good. I want to see one more thrust lower into the 94-95 area due to the mini head and shoulder breakdown from inside the wedge. then we should see a multi-month dollar rally (stock market correction?) which should build into a massive right shoulder. this will be the final grind for gold which could scare many away. but I think the gold sector will have it's moment at the end of the year or early next year when everything will go up together.

[SilverRex]

gold

the sentiment on gold is pretty negative right now, the extreme is nearly at levels similar to the major low that occur back in late 2015, early 2016. COT has also finally turned bullish as large specs are throwing in the towel. would this cause a turn? regardless of a trend I think gold is ready for a good multi week bounce. a good solid green reversal hammer was formed on the daily along with a swing low. as long as the low inst broken to the down side I think next move is up