Official Short-term Investments Thread

[riander5]

Originally posted by bball2


Haha no kidding, I first got into GoPro at around $75 and held it till it hit $20. Fortunately since then all my GoPro plays have been shorts and have come out to about even :P

We should have played the ups and downs.

QUestion is now do we get some calls for the next week or two before earnings which im guessing may get it out of this channel?

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5


We should have played the ups and downs.

QUestion is now do we get some calls for the next week or two before earnings which im guessing may get it out of this channel?

Yeah definitely should've played it differently, but didn't really do any active management back in the day, just buy and hold :P

I'm not very optimistic about Gopro at all going into the earnings report. I think they're going to tank much further and need something new, or some big positive news before the momentum starts going the other way. And right now their growth is stalling, they haven't come out with anything new or innovate in a long time, they haven't been able to realize increased profit despite increased revenue, and Chinese manufactures are coming out with products at 1/2 the price with similar or even better performance (ie) the Xiaomi Yi 2).

[SilverRex]

so far miners have made 5 waves to a lower low yet gold remains above mornings low.

we will now see if miners can bottom first before gold does to give us a divergence.

if gold has bottomed this morning, then we may have a potential wave 2 correction ending right now and it should make a wave 3 move before the end of the day and as long as it can do this and stay above 1321, then it is likely gold has bottomed.

however until it does that, it is likely in a final micro 5 waves down lower. Unless it wants to punch above 1321 for a higher degree wave iv counter trend rally then begin the 5 wave down possible ending over night or by tomorrow.

[SilverRex]

so anyone scared with today's selloff in gold? wave 'c' are almost always the most scary. that is how the average investor gets shaken out.

technically from a EW point of view. as long as gdx does not break below 27.71, this is still viewed as a correction. otherwise a bearish count will come into play.

so far expecting a lower low in gold over night and rallying into the open.

[bball2]

@SilverRex, me holding NUGT right now



But yeah, still optimistic about a reversal so I've been adding to my position today.

[SilverRex]

added one more tranche at 201 Jnug

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
[B]so anyone scared with today's selloff in gold? wave 'c' are almost always the most scary. that is how the average investor gets shaken out.

yes I'm shitting my pants right with a sizable position JNUG at 280 ish
This better snap back or I am not going to be a happy camper.

[bspot]

Was driving all day with a screaming baby in the car. Managed to pop a very small trade off on my phone during a Tim Horton's stop to get a little bit of JNUG at 230, but I really hope the rally waits for me.

Tomorrow I'm planning on turning 100% of my miners into JNUG.

Was pleasantly surprised to see LABU up today. I bought again at 33.40 to see if we had just finished a wave 2 correction and it wasn't looking good. I thought I'd be stopped out by the time I got home.

[bspot]

side question: How much of your portfolio are you guys comfortable holding in leveraged ETFs? I'm wondering if I've gotten a bit crazy with it. Lots tied up in UWTI and LABU right now, and a bunch of JNUG to come.

[riander5]

Yea you are crazy ^ I have never held more than 25% in a leveraged etf

that being said the rest was in baytex.. not much better lol

[bspot]

I'm 38% leveraged before I load up JNUG tomorrow lol

UWTI was supposed to be a short hold. Oil has been so flat since mid June. UWTI will be gone when oil hits 50.

LABU... I don't even know what my plan is. Probably just trail a stop up.

JNUG I'll just copy SilverRex

[bball2]

I'm at about 15% leveraged ETF's and 15% call / put options which I kind of combines leverage + time decay. Not too set in stone regarding allocation into leveraged ETF's but I try not to hold them more than a week.

Current portfolio breakdown is probably:

40% Canadian oil, 30% gold, 20% tech, 10% biotech / misc

Have sold off some tech / biotech this past week to go into gold.

[SilverRex]

Got my coffee, lets get down to work.

Yesterday was quite the day. just when everyone wishing to buy miners at a lower price, now that it feels like it is crashing, I bet most wish it was going up instead. If we have learned anything from how biotech moved this year. Buy at the very low and sell at the high seems to work like a charm.

Looking at gdx chart this morning. I have a couple of positives that goes well if you are long.

We got a very strong volume close which could be an early indication of a final exhaustion exchange between weak hands and strong buyers. RSI 5 day has finally hit oversold. Something that does not happen often in this 7 month rally and when it does it often tells us the correction is about to end.

So purely based on this, I have to admit, I am very much expecting a good bounce today if not tomorrow. Market sentiment in this sector is very bearish at the moment which is also good for a reversal.

however, for anyone who is over leveraged or exposed in this sector (which includes myself) it is extremely difficult to time the perfect bottom. So best approach has always been to scale in or average down over a period of time. (like how Warren Buffet does it by buying shares each month for a year instead of all in one single transaction)

From an EW (Elliot wave) point of view, most analyst is looking at the same count in this chart, and while gdx has not break below 27.71 to remain bullish. GDXJ has already over lapped its sub wave .i invalidating the count. So the next best count is a even more bullish 1-2, 1-2 count(the green) this still requires gdx to remain above 27 imo)

So the next few days and how the miners follow thru (if there is indeed a good bounce today) will be extremely important to the count and over all bullish structure.

As much as I wanted gdx to fully reverse course today and just stomp higher from here for the next 3 weeks (because past history says so from here until August) Which was another reason I did not have any problem holding a 100% invested portfolio for a bit longer.

I have to still expect the market can produce further decline. Market isnt going to just snap back completely just because I wanted it too. As someone once said, the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent. The key is to be able to anticipate surprises.

So because GDXJ has broken it's wave .i support. It may potentially warn that GDX too may break below 27.71, next big support is 27. With a rising channel and 50 DMA just under it, it wont be a surprise if price wants to first rally then drop towards a lower low and create some sort of divergence. Back in late May GDXJ did this, even though GDX did not.

Try not to get overly committed. If I see a strong bounce this week I will sell the few position I picked up yesterday in anticipation that further drop is possible.

Gold over night did make a lower low as expected but did not quite test the 1308 level which was the original target. Some EW analyst also calling for 1290-1300 as well. So keeping this in mind, I have to find ways to not get spooked if price falls again.

gold has a lot of work to do if it wants to technically look bullish again in the short term. it will need to first break and sustain above 1331 follow by 1338. GDX it needs to re-capture above 29. So until these happen. Stay flexible and assume downside pressure remains.

lastly, if gdx drops and breaks below 25, then something is very wrong that could warn a bearish count towards 22 and lower. As much as I personally do not see this happening, one has to keep this at the back of his mind.

[Vanish3d]

^ looks like the bounce is happening, at least for now.
I'm still a long ways away from break even, let alone profits

[SilverRex]

^

if I were you I would find a way trade a small position for the swings. in case price moves sideways or produces a lower low.

[SilverRex]

so far the bounce has been quite mild for gold. It would be nice to at least see gold break above 1322 to get some momentum going.

[troyl]

Break up or break down.....

image post

[SilverRex]

^ yup my bet is an upside breakout.

[SilverRex]

quick update on gold.

a bounce was much expected after being so heavily oversold. would like to see price at least reach for the down trend line and see if it produces a false breakout. If gold has bottomed, it needs to break the trendline and continue to trade above or sideways away from it.

As I was saying earlier, there is still risk with another wave down lower to create a divergence. so try not to get too excited just yet.

if gold moves 10-15 dollar higher, miners could backtest previous broken support which will turn into resistance with gdxj at around 47.5 and gdx slightly above 29. Those area could be a good swing trade exit in case market decides to move lower

[SilverRex]

now this is the type of bounce I was expecting.

it will get extremely interesting of how gold ends the week.

if uptrend resume (higher high to come) we need gold to break above 1338 and close the week above it as well.

otherwise, as much as I am very bullish on gold. keep in mind failure to break above 1338 = chance for a double bottom or lower low

I will take some profit just in case.