Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bball2]

Crude oil / UWTI rising up nicely this morning

[SilverRex]

gdx is very close to it's 50 day moving average near 29.03, 29.10 is also the 61% retracement of the 27.5-32 up move.

adding 1 tranche here on Jnug for a possibility of a short term bottom.

[Meback]

There should be zero chance of feds raising rates in sept. They wont throw a wrench in the system prior to an election. But i d be damn. YRI and K. Just cant catch a break. I could average down, but i feel that there is a lot of pressure on miners at this time.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Meback
There should be zero chance of feds raising rates in sept. They wont throw a wrench in the system prior to an election. But i d be damn. YRI and K. Just cant catch a break. I could average down, but i feel that there is a lot of pressure on miners at this time.

there is alot of pressure indeed, perhaps it is the case of the sector ran to fast and needed a break. I may scale back when I see important levels broken like gdx diving under 28.50-29.00 until then I have to play the upside and take advantage of each dip. once of these dip will no doubt turn into a much larger degree correction ultimately I do believe we are in a new bull market so any mistake will be corrected over time.

[el_fefes]

Are you guys planning on holding on to your miners into September? It sounds like there's a 50/50 chance that the Fed may increase rates.

Yellen is giving a talk this friday at Jackson Hole in which she may hint at the Fed's next interest rate decision...

[Meback]

Silver good move in the last half hour. You timed that really good.

There will be no hike in september. Thats pretty much a given. Friday we will see lots of volitility and hopefully see some strength emerge.

I

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Are you guys planning on holding on to your miners into September? It sounds like there's a 50/50 chance that the Fed may increase rates.

Yellen is giving a talk this friday at Jackson Hole in which she may hint at the Fed's next interest rate decision...

there could be opportunity in buying gold much lower down to the 1300-1310 area if negative news comes out.

I incline to ensure I have some ammo comes friday to try and scoop up any panic sell off

[SilverRex]

just wanted to focus on the miners today.

I have been expecting gdx to hit 29 for quite some time and yesterday we finally hit this area.

not only have we hit this expected buy zone, it has also tested the 50 day moving average, is near the bottom of a rising channel (which should hold on during the first attempt) and RSI is now very oversold relative to previous cycle lows.

count remains uber bullish in green with the current wave c low bottom nearly completed if not completed yesterday. the Uber bullish count because it looks something like a 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 setup

Even though technically we should be poised for a good rebound soon, please keep in mind the market can change with the wind so being flexible and ability to withstand or anticipate lower lows needs to be on your checklist.

The bearish EW count as I have heard and seen and may agree (in red) is that the entire structure since the rally began this year have completed 5 waves and is now due for a significant pull back. I will begin to favor this count only if we begin to see certain levels of support broken, but with gold coiling up and cycle wise is not due for a top until late sept/oct. Timing wise it does not make sense.

so I will continue to lean towards a bullish view on the metals until more evidence of technical weakness shows up.

[SilverRex]

daily down we can see gdx (miners) is in a descending wedge, which is bullish once it breaks out to the upside and it is currently trying to find a bottom. MACD positive divergence is showing up suggesting the same thing.

now we just wait for confirmation on a reversal to hopefully seal the wave c low.

will lower my must hold support down to 28.50 before I question the move and scale back due to technical damage.

[SilverRex]

things just got a whole lot interesting with gold opening down this morning and the sector will open low to begin the day.

gld fund is also testing the 50 day and miners pushing the envelope here at the open. Might be tempted to open another position at the open

[bball2]

God damn it NUGT, had a chance to sell at 165 last week -_-

[Vanish3d]

^ similar with JNUG.

I even made a comment about taking profits and running, but got greedy. Went from big profits to big loss.

[SilverRex]

Natgas is the only bright spot. selling that and converting it to one more tranche in jnug

[el_fefes]

Yup, in at JNUG at $294... sweating a little bit but I'll hold on. Down on USLV also.

[Vanish3d]

it's so oversold yet it doesnt seem to care. just keeps bleeding

[SilverRex]

great capitulation here in the miners. the weakness is much more than what I anticipate. While gold is still holding up. tested the 50MA today. I expected gold to try and test 1320, but the hard knock on miners is a bit concerning. if this does not shake out the average investor I dont know what is.

I do believe we are in a new bull market for this sector. the only question now is, perhaps we have to work thru some serious correctional period before the next major up tick.

I dont like selling at the low, but I may scale back my position on the next counter trend rally.

It may be better to wait for a breakout this time in case this sell of is only a wave A (a counter trend rally wave B) then an even lower low wave C to come.

[SilverRex]

for those feeling a bit of a panic, if miners are topping and much lower low ahead, I think we should see a lower high and a bounce from current levels to form a right shoulder with gdx back up to around 30ish (typical head and shoulder are usually the halmark of a top). So either take that as an opportunity to scale down or move your stop what ever it takes to ensure you can ride thru these seasonal volatility. I have no reason to unwind all my position, but definitely will try and lower my cost averages and maybe trade the bounces.

if gold still has a date with 1500 during this intermediate cycle, then we may look back today as being an opportunity rather than a sell signal.

[Disoblige]

Seems to be resistance for XBI $64.5? Could be decent LABD entry point.

NUGT, I'm more on the bullish side on this one. Just deciding if today or tomorrow is a good entry point for a medium sized position.

[riander5]

Remember back when JNUG was at 100 bucks

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by riander5
Remember back when JNUG was at 100 bucks

if you don't remember, then worry not, because it looks like it's gonna be 100's soon....