Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Vanish3d]

Perhaps NatGas bottomed and is about to run up. Got into UGAZ at ~55

[SilverRex]

gdx

i mention how critical 21.84 this week for GDX is, and price hit exactly 21.84, and now breaking up from the Fed announcement. I added a position in the 13s Jnug hoping this is the current count. 5 up 3 down to 21.84.

moving my mental stop to 21.99 which I will exit all my leverage if this is broken which means we should see a lower low under 20.84

edit: im actually exiting all my leverage right now. dollar looks too strong, completely recover the breakdown.

[SilverRex]

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Gold

gold looks much better than the miners and it can still be counted as wave 4 as long it holds above 1341 next week. the same 1-2, 1-2 count also applies if we see a higher high which again would trigger a lot of buyers. However if miners do see another wave lower under 20.84, then gold may also give us the same treatment. While I do not prefer this scenario because wave (c) are just scary to watch, I really hope it is already baked in when it hit 1306.8, and the outright strong reversal on feb 14th produced such an impulsive up move, you would think it now has wind sailing behind it. none the less, it is an alternate count that always has a possibility. Dialing down to the hourly chart I would say the first sign of trouble is under 1336

right now with yesterdays action I am leaning towards gold making a lower wave (c) low. However I do have to be weary that gold despite dollar's strength, is unable to break the Feb 14 major reversal low at 1317. So that can still remain the ultimate line in the sand.

[SilverRex]

Gold

so far gold only has 3 wave up. Cheering for a 5th wave breakout? of course it can fail but I want gold to surprise to the upside.

edit: so gold did produce a 5th wave up but very much still struggling to breakout from the trendline. Seeing how weak the miners are despite gold being up 5-6 bucks may be all the signs we need to wait for lower prices.

[300havoc]

Hey All,

What kinds of thoughts do you have on ADZ.V? (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADZ.V?p=ADZ.V)

I know it's isn't big dollars, but seeing it's growth is moving up again in line with a similar period last year. It's a Mineral / Mining company. I have money in it already, I'm just thinking of adding a little more to ride what seems to be an upward momentum.

[SilverRex]

gdx

interesting gold down miners up. can this divergence mean anything? the next move is key, I cant help but still holding onto this count for gdx 5 and it tagged 21.68. could be fooling everyone here at the begining stage of another rally. Going to try this again, in Jnug and will be holding this unless gdx takes out 21.68

[SilverRex]

BLOC / BLKCF

when it had 5 waves up I sold my position at 1.39 and had bought back at 1.11 because I expected a 3 wave correction. So it is moving pretty good to the latest count. now unless we get some sort of extended 5th wave down which at this level might as well make it a double bottom, I would guess wave 2 should be done.

edit: alt count larger degree the 5 up can still be a sub 4 pointing to 1 more lower low ahead. If price can break above wave (I) here then it should confirm the bottom is in.

using BLKCF charting since BLOC doesnt show up

[SilverRex]

Gold

everyday gold does not break down and give us that lower low under 1306 will begin to morph into some sort of holding, consolidation or flagging pattern. T1? similar to the previous ABC drop but a reversal move pointing to a upside breakout instead.

Im a risk taker sure, jumped back into the miners last week and so far it is holding up well. gdx at 21.68 is my ultimate support follow by a smaller one at 22

[taemo]

any thoughts on the recent announcement by Dash about going Proof-of-stake?

[SilverRex]

Gold 2018 outlook

this is my current guess. I think gold is in a triangle as mentioned earlier which is a terminal move towards an upside breakout that should get to 1375 but not break above 1386 as this count (black) wave 3 cannot be the smallest in order to remain valid.

I do expect the US dollar to mount a multi month intermediate rally and expect one more lower low to flush all the longs who got in too early. during US dollar's intermediate rally, gold should begin to show underlying strength and simply grind out a correctional structure holding above the ih&s neckline above 1320 at this time. the real breakout should occur after summer or late autumn imo

[zhao]

i'm about a month away from where i reset my personal end of year for investment tracking. This last month has been pretty brutal wiping out a lot of profit, so I did a quick assessment of what sectors were the best and worst for me.

Top 3 in order are:
Mining
Retail (surprised at this. I hate retail lol)
MJ

losses (actually only lost in 2 sectors):
Tech (we'll see how this plays out in a month after HS releases some news)
Energy (oil and gas)

[SilverRex]

got out of my Jnug at break even. back to the drawing board. looks like gold wants to give us that wave C under 1306 after all.

[SilverRex]

Hive.v

the bounce in Feb was just another wave 3/4 counter trend. looking for the major bottom somewhere in the 1.5x. Reduce my position and sold at 2.16 last week in anticipation of a lower low

[SilverRex]

Bloc / Blkcf

so after it tagged the 61% level during this correction, this 5 up and 3 down is looking good so far.

the alt would be a higher high above 1.16 to form a much larger wave 3/4, dont want to see this happen, I think the entire correction for this sector has gone on long enough.

[SilverRex]

Weed

looks weak short term, despite the breakout, it has since fallen back and is currently backtesting the breakout line ACB got under theirs but is trying to recover above it. This is the last support that needs to hold and give a good reversal if there is hope for a higher high in the coming months, not that price couldnt drop lower to the next trading range but the lower and longer this correction drags out the longer it will take to make new highs. the delay in legalization has certainly slow down the hype but over all I am still leaning towards one more higher high this year. APH is quite weak, it never even got up high enough to produce a breakout like ACB and WEED did. the under performance may be a good thing if the sector lights on fire again.

[SilverRex]

ICON

well I think it is safe to say we can rule out wave 4 isnt happening, the drop is too steep and so we either have a 1-2, 1-2 (about to breakout) or orange count another large 3/4 and down she goes.

Spec play for me, like 2% of my portfolio so doesnt matter where she goes in the short term, only interested where she will be 12-24 months from now.

[SilverRex]

bte

I dont hold any position at the moment but those that still do or care. what ever that mess is from 2.8-4.4 last year, lets just say we had our 5 wave up follow by a major wave 2 down which I think is probably completed. I still expect higher oil places after the current correction is in or may be in. perhaps energy shares will finally move big, a count like this projects to about 7 dollars for wave (III) and about 14 dollars when wave (v) hits. of course it is only a projection if all stars align.

[civicHB]

what do the technicals say on FB vs AMZN for the the next 6 -12 months?

[SilverRex]

acb

showing this instead of Weed this time, so far a double backtest is holding. now MJ shares are on another attempt to breakout from this multi week funk

[SilverRex]

ABX

one reason why gdx is suffering is partly to due with the under performance in abx, while it isnt all about this company alone none the less it is still a pretty good gauge . I firmly believe that once this one gets going the entire sector will look much different. This final C wave down to 11 is what majority of the wave counters are waiting for.

Those wishing to hold long term or want exposure into this sector, we are coming up with very good entry point.