Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bspot]

Ahhh feels so good to unwind most of my JNUG. Back to sitting 50% cash.

[Disoblige]

ISM data is poor, just released. 51.4 vs 55 forecast. Gold to go up now.

[SilverRex]

USD appears to be collapsing. Today's US data just sealed a no sept rate hike. Gold should have a test to 1350 soon to see if it can breakout. stand by. I may take some profit there instead

[el_fefes]

Picked up a little UGAZ this morning too.

[SilverRex]

miners are struggling at a critical area. gdxj is testing the reverse 61% retrace of the 52 to 41 drop. this is where shorts are trying to hold. gdx is at 29 which is not far. a pop higher would cause short covering imo. Normally I would take some profit here but looking at how weak USD is, I want to see if gold has any momentum to at least make it to 1350 before I start taking more leveraged position off the table.

Jnug has already surged 58% in less than a week which is very impressive

[SilverRex]

anyways im taking profit, cutting half of my Jnug here with gold at 1342. the rest at 1350.

[SilverRex]

after the quadruple resistance which I suspect the USD will have trouble holding, it has preceded into the strong sell off today. Coincident? My theory is that the US gov wants a weaker dollar so they can continue to inflate the market with their unlimited money printing, yet they do not want to cause a breakdown/crash either. So they will do what ever it takes to prop the dollar up then let it fall.

the trend is a slow grind making new lows but every significant drop will be met with buying perhaps intervention? or Euro/UK trying to keep their's from surging? what ever the reason.

technically it has formed the right shoulder that I warned about, and it would be a spectacle to watch if it can break below the current (red) neckline forcing many technical traders to flee.

a break down would and should coincide with gold breaking out upwards beyond 1350 and a chance for new highs.

Unless the US does not want to let the dollar slide yet and so the performance of gold at this time really hinges on the US dollar. the bearish count for gold and miners can still be possible, if something wants the USD to reverse and make another run into the 96-97 area delaying the inevitable but it will harm gold in the process.

nothing is guaranteed so I will only trade the leverage during gold near a cycle low (which we just had last week) and try to stay away from leverage play when gold is near 1350. I will let my core miners ride the breakout if it does happens.

cash is king, especially when market suddenly gifts us opportunities like what we just saw last week in the mining sector.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
whether you are on the short side of gold or the long side. the 3 counts I have all points to a convergence and rally back up.

even some extremely well disciplined traders that I am following are all jumping in both feet at the current levels due to some of the moving average, back test and gap filled areas.

They have a lot more flexibility and can easily withstand a bit more downside, I know everyone freaks out during these panic sell offs. I am still fully invested in this sector, just dialing up more leverage as it drops.

when market sentiment is extremely and severely bearish, thats when the turn happens. (remember biotech when it was near a breakout then it gave back all of the gains? then when it broken the bottom of channel looking like new lows ahead, it reversed and now it completely recovered?

just a reminder, the bounce is here between 28-30. we are at a very important cross road where bears will try to make a stand and push miners back into correction territory to keep the count to gdx at 22 alive. while bulls will want to pulse here then try to make a push to new highs.

personally I will be scaling back the higher it goes, the more I will take profit. this is everyone's best chance to re-balance your portfolio and make ready for the market now could go both ways.

[SilverRex]

i cant believe sil.v hit over 4.00 today I timed the perfect entry at 0.96 but sold too soon at 1.75, oh well better than taking a loss I am sure

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
i cant believe sil.v hit over 4.00 today I timed the perfect entry at 0.96 but sold too soon at 1.75, oh well better than taking a loss I am sure

Was in at 0.98 and out at 1.22. One of those profits that doesn't feel all that satisfying looking at where it headed.

High risk, high reward there for sure.

[SilverRex]

miners and gold are defying the law of gravity today except the USD

[GT.....O?]

Not sure if anyone follows MSTX, but they are due to release their results for a sickle cell treatment drug, up 25% today and has been climbing for the last week.

Results of their trial should be coming out on the 15th.

[Disoblige]

Safe better than sorry, but I dunno what kind of pullbacks we're going to get from now to 21st? Seems like the only pullback might be the panic sell before 21st, and then bam spike up.

Gold's going to hit $1350 now.

[SilverRex]

gold between 1350-1360 is the last resistance before a real breakout occurs

I am selling the rest of my Jnug here. I believe it should consolidate before the next rally as it is quite oversold in the short term.

I will buy back if it drops into a wave 4 correction. otherwise I am holding my newly positioned abx/yamana and kinross (core miners) for the breakout move.

[ercchry]

Looks like gold is still climbing, but the miners are slowing... Wish I had more ammo last week. I'm still stuck riding this for a bit longer. Hopefully miners can make another 6% by week's end. I'd be really happy with that. If not hopefully I can at least break even before I get too close to expiry

[SilverRex]

as you can see, gold previously had 4 attempts and was still unable to break above 1358. couple that with the last remaining down trendline. it should not be able to break out on first try without first consolidating and working off the overbought condition.

[bspot]

Kinross has seemed like a bit of a dog, and Integra is scary low volume. I'm going all ABX and Yamana this time around.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Kinross has seemed like a bit of a dog, and Integra is scary low volume. I'm going all ABX and Yamana this time around.

pending this time gold does really breakout and the correction is in fact over. one can look at gold corp. g.to it has been under performing the entire year relative to other mining company. I feel during the next big leg up, gold corp would do extremely well.

[bball2]

Any of you guys playing AAPL at all for tomorrow? I purchased a few Call options;

Jan 20'17 110 CALL @ averaged at $4.67/ea

Might be a huge quarter for apple if they can keep up with the demand especially on the heels of the Note 7 recall.

[Disoblige]

Wtf, crazy lol. JNUG closes at high of the day.