Official Short-term Investments Thread

[ercchry]

I'll be freaking out of it hasn't recovered in a couple weeks... Till then there isn't much I can do, so why worry?

at least the miners are holding pretty well

[Disoblige]

For those interested in the topic of non-farm jobs numbers this Friday; some food for thought:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/31/why-t...rt-friday.html

[kaput]

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[Meback]

No kaput. Silver is using the strength of the usd to gauge future weakness in the dollar. We are betting on a bullish gold.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by kaput
Am I reading this thread correctly? You guys are gambling on junior gold miners with triple leverage, and in USD?

Nah, I'm way more crazy than that

Using dgc options to be bullish on gold

[kaput]

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[Meback]

Lol. Kaput. You miss understood. No one is placing bets on the american dollar.... we are analysing its strength and weakness to better determine the direction of gold. Essentially strong USD means weakness in gold. A weak USD would mean strong gold.

What silver believes is that the USD will be soon showing weakness and as a result it would support higher gold prices. He is betting on jnug as he also beleives that given golds recent weakness it is imbound for a strong reversal. Hence why he is in a 3x leveraged etf.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Agree with Manhattan...

I have some cash on the side so I may average down. If Friday's job numbers are good i'll be in the market.

When people are greedy get out, when people are bleeding get in?

look at gdxj. back in June when the sentiment became extremely bearish the market turned, same thing in late July. perhaps it is no different this time?

[KappaSigma]

I am going to start building a large position in baytex again. While i think there is more downside to come, i think mid 2017 will see higher prices again.

[SilverRex]

just want to give everyone a big picture perspective. corrections are normal.

I believe gold is in a new bull market. and as such any draw down will be corrective with time. Although it is riskier for leverage funds because of time decay so I tend to hold core miners and using leverage as a short term trade.

using one of the great performing mining company RIC.to

after an initial rise off the bottom (3.5x) it corrected -29% the wave 3 then produced a 450% after.

So I have to say, if you believe in this sector, be patient. scale in and hold. No one can time the perfect entry as I have said in early August. I sense a bit of market hesitation and the strategy is to scale down and have cash on hand in case it dropped. and so here we are.

[SilverRex]

US dollar just started to collapse, oil and gold getting the benefit

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
US dollar just started to collapse, oil and gold getting the benefit

Any news as to why? I still have the opportunity to avg down JNUG, but I'm afraid this isn't the official bounce/jobs info could really fuck with it.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair


Any news as to why? I still have the opportunity to avg down JNUG, but I'm afraid this isn't the official bounce/jobs info could really fuck with it.

personally I believe smart money has the insider information that perhaps the NFP tomorrow isnt so good and so they drive gold prices down as much as possible so they could cover their pre-Brexit short position before the release.

if you look back the last couple reports, it seems to be a trend change for gold. its funny how the NFP will usually go against the current trend in gold. If gold was rising, the NFP was positive, when gold was dropping the NFP was negative. it is like the price action leading up to the report appears to be driven from behind the scene.

anyways what do I know, I am just sticking to my own analysis and technically we are very much due for a bounce. even if the report tomorrow somehow drives the mining sector down initially, I think the recent price action may have been already baked in and so the buy on news sell on rumor group will come out to play.

edit: appears today's dollar weakness and rise in gold were the poor ISM numbers in the US

[SilverRex]

oil remains under pressure possibly due to the stock market finally giving a real pullback, been waiting for this pull back quite a while. in the end I do not think the Fed wants to see too big of a pull back in stocks as to create a panic leading up to the election as it will only fuel Trump's cause.

although I am still bullish on oil, im not liking how much it has retraced since peaking at 49. My position in energy is very small at 15%, I am scaling down to 10% for a chance to buy lower.

focus is on gold this month

[SilverRex]

very encouraging rally so far in the mining shares. it has broken out of the sloping wedge (which is usually a bottom ending pattern. many swing lows has been spotted across most mining shares which is a good sign a bottom 'may' be in. technical buyers will begin coming back on board.

count wise, it has met all the requirements for a 5 waves down for this C leg. unless it breaks above the previous sub wave i at 44.29, it is hard to say with certainty, as this bounce still has a chance to be a final wave iv of v of V. if that is the case then the final under cut low will most likely occur from tomorrow's report release.

Whether it bottomed today or tomorrow, my short term target will be a 50% bounce back towards the 46-48 area in the coming weeks.

then we will assess if the rally out of this drop has any grounds or we may be still in a larger correction.

[Vanish3d]

Just jumped into JDST for a quick ~$1 flip. put a sell order at 32 and seeing what happens.
Still holding my JNUG position tho

edit: got stopped out! oh well, at least JNUG is moving

[asp integra]

I was going to buy some JNUG at the end of the day yesterday, I should have!

[SilverRex]

final confirmation is to see gdx move strongly above 26.9 to seal the bottom. other wise risk remains on the table we could see one more wave lower.

[troyl]

WTI Off 3+%, but MEG + BTE and others in the green.

[KappaSigma]

Cynapsus Therapeutics

Looks to be a decent Potential arbitriage on this to hold until buyout closed.