Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Red@8]

^ I just looked at Bloomberg and at CME and both are showing 4.73 right now. Not sure what you are seeing.

[SilverRex]

Ok folks its a new week let see if we can get some good plays here.

its october last week the DOW finally made some headwind headed alot lower since months to my own analysis I expect further weakness ahead.

looking at oil, while oil is in lock steps making lower lows and lower highs. it isnt crashing the way I expected it too. however this morning oil is still confined under its previous uptrend line which is now a resistance.

if you guys are short since day one from 75 or 73. I suggest to use those as your stops and hold on to shorts as long as possible because if 75 is indeed a top. then its only a matter of time until we see oil hit the 60s and even the 50s inthe coming weeks.

but if you are planning to short this morning I suggest stops to be above 71.50, if this level does not hold then obviously oil is still in a flat correction. until this level breaks I am fully favor the short on rally on this one.



gold is also playing out similar to oil having its own down trend line limiting its own move last week, therefore I Expect this area is a good short. you may attampt to short here with stops just above mornings high above 1007. Again same situation expecting any rally in gold to be limited and is a shorting opportunity. with target at least back to the 960-970 area on initial target.




The dollar has been quite messy of late. but the double bottom at 75.9 remains to hold, for the time being I still expect it to break thru the down trend line which was the reason for the last week's rejection and as long as 76.55 area holds. this EW count will be intact and am expecting we should break thru the down trendline above 77.2 this week and onto retest of the critical 78 area.




on the cyclist front, next turn date is oct 13, he expects we will see a low in the dow on oct 13 then a strong short covering rally that will produce a lower high. then its continue to drift lower until mid november.

he calls for next low in gold to be in 3rd week of november, then inflation for 2 years kicks in.

he calls for a low in the canadian dollar on 1st week of december.

US real estate low in june 2010.

he also is shorting NG until november. and advise NG could either making a higher low or a lower low but either way we have seen the top. therefore for those stock in NG short. do your best to hold out for at least one more month.

[SilverRex]

with NG, the strong rise and price remains above 4.57 could indicate we may have a bottom in NG at 2.41

but that is not to say price wont fall. and I think we will see NG fall which lines up well with the cyclist calling for a low in november.

my bearish bias for NG remains for it to hit at least 3.6-3.8 in the coming weeks. if the 2.41 is the bottom and the recent rise is a start of a new trend. I still expect price to fall because wave II retracement often are steep. potentially we could see NG retest 3 dollars so your options if you are one of the few remaining that still have the guts to bet on NG, I would short around here until november kicks in and if price hits 3.8-4 dollar range I would take some profit and let the rest ride lower

[cosmok]

^I did a double take when I saw the price was up another 17¢ this morning

[Dinan]

why is the gap in the NG chart filled now?

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Dinan
why is the gap in the NG chart filled now?

I think it depends where you look, this chart from oilngold shows the gap still



I just don't understand why the price is continuing to push higher; inventories are at record highs, consumption is way below 5 year averages and there's a huge gap between the spot and futures price.

[crxboi]

I'm new to the investing thing so I have a newbie question here,

I understand that whatever profits you make (in a regular investing account, not TFSA) is considered more income and is subject to tax. Does your bank send you a statement of some sort that shows how much you gained/lost when tax season comes?
or do you just put in a number yourself when doing your taxes and its up to revenue canada if they wanna audit and verify that?

Thanks in advance

[civic_rida]

wamuq is starting to climb again maybe we will be able to pass the 44 cent mark this week.

[Vanish3d]

Hey Dinan,

were you at bestbuy in the NE this weekend? haha
saw a car with DINAN on the back (330ci)

[KleanCord]

Can someone help me out. I am at work and initial inspection looks like Gold is looking to breakout.

Any insight right now to what Gold is doing and prices it is at.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Can someone help me out. I am at work and initial inspection looks like Gold is looking to breakout.

Any insight right now to what Gold is doing and prices it is at.

yes intraday it looks like it wants to move higher but medium term I think all we will see is a lower high at most. the next low in gold to reload should be in november.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by SilverRex


yes intraday it looks like it wants to move higher but medium term I think all we will see is a lower high at most. the next low in gold to reload should be in november.

Thanks Rex. Helpful as usual.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Hey Dinan,

were you at bestbuy in the NE this weekend? haha
saw a car with DINAN on the back (330ci)

nah, i don't have a Dinan on my car and i'm in toronto



how are you guys planning on playing gold?



damn NG is on the move, yet again!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KleanCord


Thanks Rex. Helpful as usual.

mind you I meant the high will be lower than 1033 but could be higher than the 1023 with the way its trying to move today.

but that just sets up a divergence imo.

[KleanCord]

Unfortunately I added to my short too soon. I initially was short around 1028 and then added more at about 1005.

I was looking for a 960 but I have to admit I am a little surprised by Golds response when it broke 1000. Immediate buying in spite of a rising USD.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by crxboi
I'm new to the investing thing so I have a newbie question here,

I understand that whatever profits you make (in a regular investing account, not TFSA) is considered more income and is subject to tax. Does your bank send you a statement of some sort that shows how much you gained/lost when tax season comes?
or do you just put in a number yourself when doing your taxes and its up to revenue canada if they wanna audit and verify that?

Thanks in advance

i would also like to know
input anyone?

[max_boost]

Yeah they'll send you a T5 summary that lists all your gains and losses from all the transactions you made during the year.

[Canmorite]

Definitely liking the move in Gold. Looks good.

[civic_rida]

Interested in seeing that T5 lol.

[djayz]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Definitely liking the move in Gold. Looks good.

Yah nice little jump however sold out of 2/3 positions and took up 2 positions on the short side. Hope we see a nice bounce so I can get out of my 12.75 HGU position and then a nice big correction so I can make some money on HGD