Official Short-term Investments Thread

[jacky4566]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Any thoughts on PONY? Getting absolutely wrecked, looking at short and long term picture here

Wow those guys really bit the dirt.

Peter A. Williams recently quit as a Director of the Corporation so that could be the reason for the recent dump.

Production numbers and finances looks ok from this page: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paint...html?.tsrc=rss

Wonder if anyone in the biz can give better rational?

[zhao]

my take on pony updated for today. i'm not in the biz but its one of the few companies I follow:

compared to every other natural gas company in canada their graph over the last 5 years pretty much looks exactly the same. same movement up at the same time as everyone, same movement down, etc etc. So what its doing this year doesnt mean there is a big problem with this specific company, more Canadian NG in general.

However, its far more violent so there is a bit of a stinky taint to pony, mainly because of their deal; throwing away a solid balance sheet position for a shitty position to gaindouble the production. I continue to hold a small amount because i think long term its outlook is good. I am also very close to buying a big chunk of it for short term gains as well because I think it is due to rebound starting in the next couple weeks. Last night i re-evaluated what i think of this company and i came to the conclusion it was going down more still. I was thinking we didn't see the bottom quite yet, and after today think there is still room for it to go down..... but we should be pretty damn close to the bottom at this point. What i dont like about it's future is Canada hates it's energy sector, and almost all of NG production comes from alberta and BC, and at least one of those provinces our federal government wished north korea would just nuke into a parking lot. The rest of the world is also not wanting to invest in Canada's energy sector, which is why we are seeing shitty stock prices imo. If there is any half decent change or news, we could see foreigners start to load up heavily again, and that will really rebound prices of these stocks.

People are also watching insider trading, and at these record low prices...... no one is buying. so that turns us off. Ward bought something retarded like $20g worth a month ago... which imo is worse than not buying anything at all. It's like he admitted he had to buy, but was only willing to commit pocket change lol. I also think changing of management is what a fair number of people are waiting for, so i dont think someone stepping down tanked the stock at all. You have people in this stock that bought at $10 in january and are looking at a 75% loss. Heads should be rolling in management for that in a lot of people's eyes.

My opinion is i'd say odds are its going up shortly, possibly back to $4 as long as natural gas prices stay decent and there isn't any major problems with getting their product unloaded. It has a good chance of hitting $6 this winter if things go well. I dont buy in to it hitting $9 or $12 like some analysts think. I think those analysts are sleeping at the helm from before the NDP took power in BC.

There is a small chance it will continue to be pony and just keep going down and down...... and down..................... and down.

[zhao]

I doubled my stake in pony today at 2.85. Rebought in to tv at 1.47

[SilverRex]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

I doubled my stake in pony today at 2.85. Rebought in to tv at 1.47

took a quick look at Pony. Interesting chart looking for a major bottom. an obvious ending diagonal 5 waves down and we are in the final 5th wave and even a micro 5 waves sequence with the potential to bottom right here. if there is any capitulation, downside could be another 10% down to the 2.5 area, otherwise it reminds me of Meg.to when it punch down to a new 52 week low bottomed then jumped nearly 100% after 2 months.

I see potential here. taking a stab here with you at 2.88

as for tv, it looks toppy to me, in a 5th wave up, maybe one more sub 5 up to a slightly higher high. Not fan of those overlapping waves on these moves up

[SilverRex]

oil

oil has been difficult to count. so to make it simple, I think multiple 3 waves works better. Conservatively I believe oil has a date with 60. the high side is 70-75 if you take into account the potential of a cup pattern with a depth of 25 dollars, hence breakout would give you another 25 dollar move 50+25=75

can oil make another daily cycle low under 50? sure it can. so I would expect a good pullback to be a great opportunity to go long MT.

[jacky4566]

Ill put a bet on that Pony. Lets go Papas got a brand new bag!

[Mostwanted]

Took a position on PONY as well, 52 week low and on its 5th wave down. ECS & PGF has been my main play for day trades lately

[s_havinga]

Any comments on PD? Also bouncing its 52 week low. I took 2 positions last week- a little early it seems but to me it seems like there is a lot of upside.

[zhao]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

as for tv, it looks toppy to me, in a 5th wave up, maybe one more sub 5 up to a slightly higher high. Not fan of those overlapping waves on these moves up

It is kinda toppy for short term trading. Not just because of waves trends either. It's running out of a bit of steam with the speculators buying it solely off of what zinc is doing (zinc is currently higher than anyone expected and stockpiles aren't going down fast anymore so i'm not sure how much higher zinc can really go to cause spikes in this stock's price. I'm not expecting any crazy increases from now on in zinc pricing, but we could still see some surprises if the stockpile drawdown continues). However, the long term outlook is quite good because this company should have nice cashflow quarter after quarter for awhile so I viewed it as pretty low risk at 1.47.

I originally planned to get out around 1.70, and I probably still am. I exited the last wave in full expecting a big drop, and while i'm not sure if its over or not, I'm figuring it will go back up within the next month or so to mid/high 1.60s. I'll be exiting again in full around that price and may not re-enter. If the stock price falls a lot after that I'll probably jump back in. Everyone and thier dog thinks this stock is going to $2+ within the next year, and it probably will. I just think after it changes from a stock where people primarily are speculating on zinc to a stock more focused on the balance sheet and cash flow, it's not going to see as predictable or as profitable of swings as we have seen since I bought in at 1.09.

I dont think this thing is a no brainer anymore. Not something i'd recommend to anyone not prepared to lose, but its been good to me and i think it'll still perform decent for myself.

[jacky4566]

Got stopped out of UGAZ at 10. Pitty Natgas just cant seem to take off.

[SilverRex]

This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

Got stopped out of UGAZ at 10. Pitty Natgas just cant seem to take off.

I will get out if it breaks 2.759

[Mostwanted]

Lithuim stocks had a very nice early pump, LAC & NMX hit 52 Week high

[SilverRex]

natgas

seasonal natgas does show a typical low in November so cant rule out further weakness ahead. for the moment it is pennies away from breaking 2.759, unless it can reverse aggressively, I think it is creating larger swings and the multimonth consolidation as morphed into a widening megaphone pattern. this will eat both longs and shorts alive as it continues to take out your stops then reverse aggressively in the other direction after the same thing. It may be better to range trade this with the expectation it can break a support and recover. if price does not recover back above 2.93, it would also put the mega head and shoulder pattern at play which is extremely bearish.

if I continue to play this sector I may have buy on the low (the red lowering channel line) and sell a portion near the top and let the rest run if a true breakout occurs. I will switch over to this widening swing theory if 2.759 breaks.

[SilverRex]

what a great reversal on natgas. still holding onto UGAZ, 2.759 never broke. the sentiment on natgas is so bearish, that alone would turn things around

[SilverRex]

meg.to

even though I see oil hitting 60-70 in the coming months, looking at meg.to and even bte.to they dont look impressive to me, and the recent rise appears to be corrective. which I now lean towards a wave C drop to prior lows. I have already exited all my energy shares a few weeks ago with a good 20-25% profit. will only be buying back in again if I see meg hit the blue box area.

[SilverRex]

natgas

a strong reversal yesterday. it came with a penny from breaking a critical support. but with how volatile Natgas is, even if it breaks it can still recover. I believe sentiment is so extremely bearish, this alone is enough to exhaust all sellers and turn to the upside. if yesterday's reversal was a major low. then I expect natgas is now tracing out a wave c of (ii) bottom. alt count is one more wave lower down to low 2.8s, the next rally above 2.9 could be a good one

[SilverRex]

gold/miners

was hoping a dead cat bounce was stronger. but with gold in the green yesterday, miners again was underwhelming. Im not going to attempt to try and catch any short term bounce here. even if it still make another good runup. will wait until gold backtest that breakout trendline (as previously posted) then will assess and re-enter leverage

[SilverRex]

bte

bte was not able to hold above prior wave highs, these overlapping structure is looking bearish as a pattern. a flag channel on the down side. I am also leaning towards a bearish case and that bte is also in some sort of ending diagonal looking for a major bottom. remember, meg made a new 52 week low, while bte has not, perhaps it is still trying to do this. any pattern is not guarantee and yes if oil explodes, who knows bte could invalidate the channel and break above wave (d) and the pattern becomes a 1-2, 1-2. energy isnt my focus so I will be patient and wait if wave (e) develops, then it would be a very good bargain

[SilverRex]

right now natgas looks ready to breakout, I would only consider the wave C low to remain on the table if price breaks 2.88

[SilverRex]

mux

mux has not given me the sub wave 3 up move. if it does not do this in short order (green count), we may be looking at one more wave lower hitting the next target zone of 1.6-1.7 area (red count). if this happens I may add another position.

with gold outlook remaining on the weak side for a couple of more weeks. this certainly does not help it's cause.