Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

silver

silver has produced a swing low (while gold hasnt) I think we are extremely close to a bottom here. worse case silver may have 1 more lower low and imo silver under 16 is a screaming buy

[SilverRex]

with gdx punching thru 22.28 I have to just take it what I see and believe the bottom is in a 20.89

with this trying to count 5 waves up. so either we are in wave 3 of (i) or wave 5 of (i) both bullish at the moment.

since I have not seen any negative divergence on RSI or MACD, I am expecting any correction to be mild (wave 4) follow by another thrust upwards to complete 5 waves.

and depending on what gold does as it still has not able to break above 1228 to confirm a swing low which would bring in more technical buying from cycle counters

if gold still has more weakness coming and isnt quite ready to move in a new cycle, then miners to me can be counted 5 waves with the current top being an extended 5th wave off the low at 21.23

then once is to expect price to hunt or fill the gap in the 21.50-60 area then begin the next impulse move up

[JudasJimmy]

Originally posted by max_boost
got ripped on APH. bought at 6.73 and now 5.54 one week later lol some things never change haha

I bought some yesterday after you complained, cashed out for a cool %10 today. It was a good tip. thanks...

[SilverRex]

kgc

i cant recall if I mentioned this, but kgc had a Ro4 breakout on monday and ever since it held above it, price is now beginning to move impulsively to the upside and now it is trying to breakout from the final inverse h&s neckline which if confirmed can target the 2016 high

one driver for the strong showing in kgc (kinross gold) is the increase weighting on gdxj ever since the fund got an asset rebalancing couple that with a surprise upside earnings. you now have ever reason to lean heavily into this stock

[SilverRex]

gdx

awhile back was expecting gdx_to hit the red box with price falling under wave A below 21.

it dipped to 20.89 and that is all she wrote. wasnt able to get my ideal entry in the 20.3-20.5 area but it did technically achieve the requirement for this bottom. Sure I should have at least open 1 leverage position when price was under 21. then again I have enough invested, I rather stick to my own game plan.


now that price moved strongly above the 21.75 and 22.28 area, it does appear a new daily cycle has emerged.

so as long as 21.75 holds, I think price should imo find its way back to retesting the a high above 25.

The June 19 turn date from Armstrong could also signal a potential top in mid to late June (just like 2016) so I want to anticipate a turn here also for a wave 1 of 3 top or a bearish alt C top._how we play this I guess we will just have to wait and see

[SilverRex]

oil

ever since oil rallied off the low of 44, price has made quite a rebound. the 47 area was suppose to become resistance, and the previous rising neckline in the 48s as well. however price has closed above this as well as the 200EMA on the daily which to me now suggest the entire drop from 55 to 44 remains in a corrective pattern.

so in short, the entire move from 26 to 55 is wave (A), the move from 55 to 44 could possibly be wave (B) and we still have wave (C) producing new highs.

now was the 44 area wave (B) bottom? we will have to see how oil corrects.

we have 5 waves up and potentially oil is ready to correct back down to the 46-47 area. I'll say wave 2 has started only if price can close below 48.

similarly last week I mention the importance of 47, that breaking it would imply bearish continuation, the fact that it did not break this and made another wave higher forming a completed 5 wave structure off the low, we can now begin to entertain the possibility the trend in oil could be changing. thats how the market worse, things change. what ever is coming is showing up technically. further Opec cut? war? who knows. big money will first react and reflects it in the price.

if 48 does not get broken to the downside, oil can certainly form an extended 5th wave up higher. no point in chasing but waiting for the correction.

[SilverRex]

gdx

looking at the macro count, so far we have 3 waves up. initial drop could be wave (iv) but very possibly still in a correction with one more lower low down to the low 22s

key is to see gdx make a higher high to complete 5 waves to maintain bullish momentum.

if gdx fails to make a higher high and breaks 21.75 support, this would be bearish imo

[SilverRex]

fcx

while count wise, still waiting for that lower low under 11.43 to complete the final 5th wave.

I did notice we had an ending diagonal 5 waves down to 11.50 which potentially could mark the low as a truncated ending diagonal 5th wave.

if so, then we need to see fcx take out 12 follow by 12.50 as confirmation.

looking at the move this morning, it appears we have a 1-2, 1-2 setup, so this scenario is possible

[SilverRex]

gold

ever since gold was able to produce a swing low by closing and breaking above 1228, it has drawn in plenty of technical buying. the invert h&s pattern also suggest a price target in the area of 1258-1260.

gold is also about to retest the upper channel of the declining wedge and the previous breakdown neckline which should act as resistance.

this will mark a very good area for a short term top in gold imo.

so gold bottomed at 1214 and we are in wave 1 of 3 which is suppose to be the most powerful leg up? I certainly can only hope. but both cycles and time wise suggest price still needs to push lower for another 1-2 months.

this rise up in gold could also just be a counter wave (b) with (c) yet to come. If so, then be prepare for an even better buying opportunity to come.

in the mean time, if 1214 is actually the ICL (intermediate cycle low and yearly low) then we will watch for confirmation.

[SilverRex]

gdx

gdx has made a higher high and now has 5 waves up. whether it extends or not doesnt matter. miners are bullish.

[SilverRex]

ccj

still waiting for that wave v of (c) under 9.34 to complete the bottom.

turns out wave iv was a 5pt abcde bear rising wedge bear flag rather than an 3 waves ABC. either way bearish for a lower low

[b_t]

JNUG green today when hardly anything else was.

miners technical side looked good as per SilverRex's stuff here, then add the Trump news in. gold up 2% in one day is craziness. I expect a strong end to the week for JNUG

[KO22]

Does FCX ever stop bleeding

[bspot]

Originally posted by KO22
Does FCX ever stop bleeding

Bailing on that before I was in the red is one of the best decisions I made this year.. haha.

I've been playing NUGT and DUST at the tops and bottoms of this channel and it's worked out alright.


» Click image for larger version

I'm also in LABU, since the 45's, hoping yesterday was a shakeout and all my gainzzz aren't gone.

[KO22]

Hello darkness my old friend

[Kloubek]

Wow to the last couple of days. Rare to see red virtually across my entire portfolio.

[b_t]

hah miners did well yesterday so I thought they'd be fine today, and keep going up while everything else went down... nope

I would have sold JNUG yesterday at $21 if I wasn't in a meeting. I might be too busy to actually play this stock properly because it needs babysat

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by b_t
hah miners did well yesterday so I thought they'd be fine today, and keep going up while everything else went down... nope

I would have sold JNUG yesterday at $21 if I wasn't in a meeting. I might be too busy to actually play this stock properly because it needs babysat

was expecting gold to top around 1258-1260 which in turn capped miners. also miners was in the final 5th wave up, it was ready to roll over for a wave 2 correction.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KO22
Does FCX ever stop bleeding

been expecting a break below 11.43 for the final wave v of C also. got a bit excited 2 days ago but price never was able to confirm reversal and take out 12.00

but today
it has none the less produced a very interesting reversal candle on the 1 hour. the same confirmation still requires price to break above 12 then I would say the bottom most likely being in.

[Marsh]

How do you guys have so much time to follow markets during the day lol. Your work must be slow...