Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bspot]

Well that undid a lot of yesterday's damage. Out of DUST. I find my success booking profit is way higher getting in and out closer to the trend lines.

[SilverRex]

gold

so gold did produce a short term top around the 1258-1260 and met its inverted head and shoulder price target.

with price moving down initially to 1244 in a 3 wave fashion, I am going to say this is wave (a) of the correction.

over all, I am leaning towards gold completing 5 waves up and now moving into wave 2 correction targeting some where in the 1230s since the action today appears corrective so any bounce should be short lived.

the only alt count I have would be the orange count where as we are still in an extended wave iii of (i) up, if this is the case price would make another new high and what this simply means that the next buy area will be shifted from the 1230s up into the 1240s-1250s

not going to post miners gdx since it is in a similar pattern since the last chart. 5 waves up and wave 2 correction in progress

[SilverRex]

fcx

with copper price rebounding today. fcx has got some buying momentum going. while the reversal candle stick wasnt quite as bullish as I had hoped but it can still be a reversal bottom (similar to the bottom on wave iii at 11.91 on March 27

count wise we have completed all necessary count. now we just wait for confirmation for the first 5 waves up. so far we have 3 waves up and 11.45 must hold and give us the 5th wave up to begin a new intermediate degree rally.

then I would like price to close above 12.00 for the next sign

[SilverRex]

oil

ever since oil broke above 49, I had a suspicion the reversal at 44 may be our yearly and intermediate cycle low. (my own personal target was hoping to see price under 40)

and oil not only has some positive data backing up the recent move but technically it is also making a 5th wave up which is bullish

initially from my last count I mention the possibility of oil extending its move higher as long as price does not break 48. and true to it, oil never closed below 48. and I cant suggest the double bottom at 48 is wave 2 either since it never even corrected 38%. a typical wave 2 correction should normally correct between 38-61% of the previous rally.

with an obvious rising channel, 5th wave up in sequence it appears everything is lining up to move up together. stocks may have bottom or with a bit lower to go) with a falling USD (if one recalls the last time, it was continuously trying to break down from a neckline targeting 95, and so far that is on track.

only alt count is a even more uber bullish count with price now in wave iii of (iii) of (I) up. if this is so, then price should not break below 49.6, as soon as price closes below the 49.50 area about, I think wave 2 correction would have started.

[SilverRex]

gold vs dollar

just food for thought. when gold was in what appears to be a flag pattern at the time, turned out into some sort of consolidation which broke down and resulted in a pretty significant decline.

looking at the dollar, it is also in a similar consolidation follow by a break down recently, the h&s top suggest target down tot he 94 area.

also keep in mind, gold eventually found a bottom by backtesting the previous break out neckline

so will the dollar do the same thing? the 94 area looks like the perfect area to bottom

[zhao]

i sold ppy.to today at 5.56 after it gained 8% for a pretty tidy profit. i figured we'll see a end of day dip (long weekend people sell off, and we did see a bit of a down at end of the day), and after it skyrocketing so much today i'm expecting a possible drop next week. maybe not tuesday, but hopefully at some point so i can re-enter it. I cashed out all my other investments in my rrsp account today too for a nice profit so i'm ready to jump back in to ppy or cve big next week (preferably ppy, but whichever one dips). I did the math and I am sitting at a 28% gain for the last 60 days for my RRSP.

I did a quick in and out of HBC as well this week when it dipped just below $10 and sold at 10.12. I really dont like that stock's outlook, but I like the company and it's been good to me this year for profit because they've had so much shitty news that really doesn't matter. It seems to find a bottom as soon as it dips below $10, and slowly climbs back up. I can see it going back to $11 the next time they have half decent news, but i'm not holding my breath for any higher than that. retail is scary shit.



Tv.to had a nice 11% gain today too, but that stock I'm holding. Finally their big deal is done, shareholders voted it in (99% voted for it) and zinc prices rallied back to a decent price, meaning this stock should be back to trading at prices that are pretty predictable, and it is very possible this is the start of it's climb upwards.

I'll consider selling it if it breaks 1.20, but only if zinc prices remain in the 1.15-1.17s, and only so I can re-enter it when it dips. I see a lot of potential for this stock, and it's currently my favourite. I have most of my TFSA tied up in it right now.


What else i'm watching that i'm ready to jump on. bbd.b if it drops into the 2.00-2.05 range. ACQ at 20 is very tempting, but I feel dipping below 20 is a big mental barrier to some. RSI if it dips under 6.2 and CHR if it dips into the 7.20s (safe stocks with good dividends that fluctuate a few % here and there). FTG if it falls below 3.80 i'd view as a safe bet as well (this one will likely get close to $5 again this year, but I hate the volume it trades at).


What i'm watching and am somewhat interested in is APH and WEED. APH at 5.68 is peaking my interest and is probably due for another upward swing.

[SilverRex]

oil

oil has produced 5 waves up. possible one more microwave higher than we should get a 3 wave correction back down to 50-48 area for retest

fcx

also in a similar pattern. also 5 waves up off the low, possible bottom in place at 11.07

[zhao]

I held tv today. I dont think it'll go up again tomorrow, but I'm sticking to my plan to hold this until it at least gets to 1.25+. I'm not holding my breath its going to do better than 1.2x for june, maybe july, but I figure it may start going up after that as zinc stockpiles continue to dwindle. china continues to clamp down on its own zinc mining, as well as closures of a handful of mines without new ones replacing them is seeing a rapid reduction of zinc supply. I'm guessing that should really start affecting the price around sept + at the rate things are going.

Some analysts are predicting this stock could hit $3, but i doubt that. i'm thinking the low estimates of 1.70 are probably more realistic.


As for stocks i'm looking to buy, i'm currently watching cve, ppy, chr, aph, and acq on the tsx. Target prices that'll make me jump on them are as follows, in order of what i want to buy.

ppy @ 5.40ish
cve @ 12.6x
aph @ 5.5x
acq <19.50 (really unsure of this stock in the short term. my view is it could do anything right now, but if i buy under 19.50 i should be able to exit this stock over that price without too much worry)
chr @ 7.2x

Today the only one that hit my market was CHR.to after it dropped down to 7.25 (bought it at that). I figure its a pretty safe bet at that, as imo this stock is worth $8 to me. Solid sustainable 6.5% dividend at the price I bought it at means i wont mind holding this if it doesn't go up for awhile.

So for the rest of the week i'll be looking at entering in to one of the other 4... hopefully PPY again.

[max_boost]

I think I need to buy some more aph. I got some at 6.73

[SilverRex]

gdx

after a near perfect 5 waves up off the low of 20.89, the wave 2 correction is now in wave (c). it technically made a lower low under wave (a) so it can end here if that is all she wrote.

but looking at gold, it could still use one more wave to break the low under 1245 to fulfill the same pattern.

looking for gdx to find a bottom between the 22-22.5 area

[SilverRex]

oil

after another micro wave higher, I think oil has completed 5 waves and should be more than ready to roll over to back test the 47-49 area before a even more powerful move up

and yes there is an alt count which is even more bullish seeing oil could also be in a wave 3 move, if this is the count, then oil will either suddenly just punch upward and breakout of this rising channel or it can produce a mild correction without breaking below 50

[jacky4566]

What is everyone thoughts on the old ditch weeds?

ACB looks to be in a bit of a flat now and WEED is at an 8.0 low.

When are we expecting the next big announcement for legalization? Every little bit of news seems to send these guys flying on speculation.

I might grab some ACB for beer money.

[meeiu]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil

after another micro wave higher, I think oil has completed 5 waves and should be more than ready to roll over to back test the 47-49 area before a even more powerful move up

and yes there is an alt count which is even more bullish seeing oil could also be in a wave 3 move, if this is the count, then oil will either suddenly just punch upward and breakout of this rising channel or it can produce a mild correction without breaking below 50

OPEC news tonight will most likely play a significant role in determining the path of oil.

[ickyflex]

TSX oil sucks

[SilverRex]

fcx

after fcx achieve 5 waves off the low at 11.07, i am going to view the bottom being in and fcx like oil, gdx, (coincident?) are all looking for their abc wave 2 correction.

ideally I want to see fcx hit the 11.50 area. but a bullish alt count suggest price can certainly already put in an abc flat and could at any moment thrust upwards and begin wave 3

having price break above 12.00 slightly was very encouraging. now we need a follow thru

[SilverRex]

gdx/gdxj

5 waves off the low, certainly looks like wave (c) of 2 is in

[bspot]

I'm so curious what is going to happen to crude. I sort of expect a surprise dump. I don't think anyone will be surprised by the cuts getting extended, so upside seems limited.

On the other hand, we've had pretty steady draws.

[zhao]

Originally posted by jacky4566
What is everyone thoughts on the old ditch weeds?

ACB looks to be in a bit of a flat now and WEED is at an 8.0 low.

When are we expecting the next big announcement for legalization? Every little bit of news seems to send these guys flying on speculation.

I might grab some ACB for beer money.

Here is my views:

Annual revenue is shit, P/E is shit, profit is shit, everything is shit about these companies in relation to what their stock prices are, except for future growth potential. 'They' claim when weed is legal it is going to be a 100 billion dollar industry in Canada. Currently all the dope companies combined are sitting at what, around 5 (give or take a lot depending on the hype of the day) billion market cap?

My thoughts are some of these companies will grow and take over a significant portion of the market share, and some will do not much of anything. acb, weed, and aph will probably all go places though. IMO they're not going to go up a ton either. I'd say we're talking maybe 30% for a year from now. the 100-200% train left the station long ago and isn't likely to come back.


Weed/canopy growth is the biggest. They have the biggest sq footage space currently, but its not being utilized, and they're the most secretive with future production numbers once legalization happens (they're also using a old chocolate factory). They are the closet to making profit of the 3. They have the best revenue right now. blah blah blah, basically right now this minute they look better..... but these aren't 100 year old companies, so that means shit IMO. Who knows if that will hold true in a year, because things are changing fast and thats why these companies have market caps of 1 billionish while only doing 20-40 million in revenue lol.

Aurora is Albertan. They're building a massive green house at the edmonton airport, which is federal. Cities or provinces can't fuck with that lease from my understanding. Target of 100000kg of dope out of this place (they previously said 70000kg), with possible plans for 5000kg more out of another acquisition. That translates into about 900 million a year in product at $9ish a gram. This greenhouse should be completed septish. Also they're hte ones that are on the hype train for how many different seeds they are mucking with. THey also have some ties to the american market through Colorado from what I remember, so they shouldn't be figuring shit out as they go. aurora is still on venture though, and only one analyst on the reuters report has bothered to look at them.



Aphria is out of Ontario. THey plan to have a bigger greenhouse, but their projected numbers are actually worse than aurora. Aphria has a greenhouse active that is capable of 18000kg right now, or about 160 million worth. They're building another giant greenhouse (20% bigger than aurora) as well but i think targeted production is only around 80000kg or so, so about 20% less actually. A fair number of analysts are watching this one, and it moved off venture awhile ago. They also are trying to do things in the US. My number are a bit fuzzy now, but i believe Aphria had the lowest cost to produce of the big 3 too.

The thing is, right now, all these guys are doing mickeymouse level sales. they're talking customer bases of mere thousands, which is nothing. Everything hinges on the legalization going green next year and these companies leaving the gate with a running start.

They've also already built up the hype surrounding their stocks, so you'd be getting in a bit late, so IMO my decision of who to go with is based on which stock is trading at the best deal right now and I decided Aphria looks to be that stock.

I dont think acb would be a bad pick though, I like it better than WEED, and I think if you're looking for something that's volatile and going to move the most the next time there is big news, ACB is probably the stock to own.

[zhao]

i didn't buy anything today either. It looks like painted pony might be on a slow downward wave, so i'm holding my breath it's going to do what I want and i'll get back in.

ACQ went way under my target price, but it never flattened out or even slowed down, so I avoided it. It was just slow consistent downward motion all day. I was tempted to buy it at close but the bid/ask price volumes were shit. I'll be watching it tomorrow morning @ 730am to see what it does though. It feels like the most risky stock i'm looking at, but there is some good potential reward that might be worth rolling the dice on it.

APH and cve are so close to where i want to buy. With trump spamming WTS OIL in trade chat, that should continue to scare people out of companies like cve, so we'll see if it hits what I think it will be a good buy at.


CHR turned out to be a good buy, it's already up to 7.35

[SilverRex]

gold

after 5 waves up, the latestest action in gold looks very corrective, it only means gold has further upside once a bottom has been formed.

all lining up for further strength in this sector