Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

as i mentioned yesterday, I am now leaning towards miners dropping into a larger wave 2 correction pull back after seeing that it completed 5 waves off the low since the FOMC news.

the expectation is a pull back down to the 22 area in the coming days or 1-2 week time frame.

alt count, cant rule out there can still be one more smaller wave towards a higher high (orange)

I have since scaled back and taken my profit on 2/3 positions in Jnug. will attempt to either do nothing or buy back when gdx hits the low 22s

edit: I also suggested the gold needs to break below 1244 to begin a similar sell off, however over night it rallied off 1244.10 to remain bullish in the short term. if gold doesnt crack soon, this may still hold miners up (bull trap?)

not expecting miners will make any leaps to the upside, due to the count I posted.

[SilverRex]

gold

not much changed from the last count I posted yesterday. even with a higher high I think gold can still be on the verge of closing a wave v of (v), expecting a pull back into the 1217-1230 region in the coming days or weeks.

gold technically needed to break below 1244 yesterday to confirm down trend, it rallied off 1244.1 overnight and remained bullish. but we will see if this breaks today

miners have been showing some underlying weakness of late. reminds me of the mid Feb this year where gold was continuously making new highs but miners did not follow and collapsed shortly after. we could be seeing a deja vu but in a minor scale.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil

for those following oil, just a reminder from this I posted on March 09. key support is at 47. was expecting consolidation between 47-49 and so far so good.

if price remains above 47 (without closing below 47) green path remains valid. otherwise it does not look good.

[SilverRex]

looks like a sub 4 bounce underway for miners. if it makes a lower low I will re-buy a 2nd position in Jnug

also increased my position size by 50% on usa.to

[SilverRex]

gpl

ever since I anticipated a big drop when price was testing the 2.25 top and even played a perfect sell and re-buy at lower prices. price remains weak and is overshooting my downside target.

while it has fully fulfilled the requirement of a correction it has yet to give any signs of a change in trend. with a sharp wedge pushing lower, from my last charting I was expecting price to go after the 1.56 61% fib support. so far it has rallied off that area this morning. we will see if this will translate to some sort of bottom.

looking at h&s patterns. it has always be a 60% probability, but looking at how gpl in the in last 2 years. you can see clearly that h&s breakdowns never hit their low target and in fact the reverse and breakout to the upside confirmed the change in trend.

will gpl continue this? we will know when price recloses above 1.80

I have big enough position size that I do not need to do anything. I may however be tempted if price reaches down to the 78% fib level and 200EMA between 1.38-1.45

[SilverRex]

looks like a larger wave 2 is indeed underway. I was expecting gdxj_rise this week to be a wave (B) top and the correction began on the 16th of March to make sense of the wave being overlapping._

now gold still has not broken the 1244 support to confirm the same wave 2 correction, and there is a slight change that if gold does not break 1244, it still remains in the bullish count I had a few days back. after all, for cycle counters, gold really needs to produce a new high above 1264 to keep the cycle bullish

does this mean miners could be bottoming this week and gold continues to grind higher? perhaps.

while it is nice to see both miners and gold move together. still cant rule out miners bottoming and gold just taking a breather.

looking at gdxj, a possible A=C scenario, waiting for one more wave lower to test the rising neckline and create a +div and will be rebuying_my 2nd Jnug position

[SilverRex]

close enough to the rising neckline. buying back my 2nd position in Jnug at 6.41, leaving a 3rd order in the mid 5s.

[bspot]

Out of JDST. JNUG looking like it may have legs. Went 12.83 - 14.40.

Edit: Now I'm wishing I didn't, but I'll stay out. Profit is profit, and I really don't like being stuck in too long on bear trades.

[SilverRex]

Here is my uber bullish count if gold refuses to drop down to the 1217-1230 area. price can still be in this count (imo) as long as it remains above 1235.5

this would line up well for miners to find a bottom today or tomorrow

[SilverRex]

gdx

ever since gdx made a perfect 5 wave off the low of 21.14 I was expecting a wave 2 pull back which has obviously started. selling the 2 leverage position near the top was a nice move but that was all based on the counts. and counts can certainly change really quickly, we just try to make the best probable guesses based on this, and often this so call EW counts are driven by market sentiment and technical cycles and patterns where they all intercede each other on multiple time frames. I feel it gives off enough truth of what is to come and as long as it is correct >60% of the time I will use it.

anyways looking at the recent sell off. gdx has rallied off the 38% fib level which imo can be A bottom if gold decides to act impulsively to the upside. but if it doesnt, I suspect gdx still has to trace out a lower price target zone some where between 22-22.5 but not closing below 22 which would imply a more bearish tone.

if gdx manages to recapture above 23.14, then one could begin to get excited again for the potential correction ending breakout move.

otherwise as long as we stay below 23.14, a typical correction in time would suggest more side way or lower price movement ahead.

[SilverRex]

gold

as I posted yesterday, am leaning towards a bullish 1-2, 1-2 setup as long as it holds above 1235.5 otherwise it is a typical 3 wave correction down to the 1217-1230 area.

but with price just hanging on the breakout line with a descending wedge pattern (bullish) my main count is a breakout but if price comes down and takes out today's low unde 1240 it will be an early warning signal of a false breakout move and the larger correction would have begun

[urbannomad]

Can someone take a look at NXO on the venture? Shit is wild.

[jacky4566]

Originally posted by urbannomad
Can someone take a look at NXO on the venture? Shit is wild.

Can confirm. Shit is getting wild. Haha.

A Circuit Breaker was issued but im not sure why. They claim to have some crazy optics breakthrough but it might just be vapourware.

[SilverRex]

gdx was rejected by 23.14 this morning. jury is still out and has not confirmed gold's move.

[SilverRex]

fcx has been coiling for many days, watch for the release of this tension and confirmation with breakout above 13.15 follow by 14.00

[ickyflex]

BTE and MEG so sad today haha

[Kloubek]

So, on a total whim I cashed in all my shares of BNE to try to dump it into something to make me a quick 5%. (I use the term "cashed in" as light as possible, as we all know how oil has done lately).

I dropped the roughly 10g into GBR around 11am, when I saw it has a strong upward trend in the morning. I entered at $1.25, and it has already gained some 30% by that point.

Man, was that a good play. Spiked at $1.95, and I took 8g of it out at $1.85. (Almost sold at $1.92 but I got greedy.) I'm leaving 2g in there to see what happens next week - though it is more likely than not investors will realize this was a momentum increase as opposed to one based on fundamentals.

Still, 50% gain in one day ain't too bad. If I can do that one more time I'll actually be even in my stock market attempts.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Kloubek
So, on a total whim I cashed in all my shares of BNE to try to dump it into something to make me a quick 5%. (I use the term "cashed in" as light as possible, as we all know how oil has done lately).

I dropped the roughly 10g into GBR around 11am, when I saw it has a strong upward trend in the morning. I entered at $1.25, and it has already gained some 30% by that point.

Man, was that a good play. Spiked at $1.95, and I took 8g of it out at $1.85. (Almost sold at $1.92 but I got greedy.) I'm leaving 2g in there to see what happens next week - though it is more likely than not investors will realize this was a momentum increase as opposed to one based on fundamentals.

Still, 50% gain in one day ain't too bad. If I can do that one more time I'll actually be even in my stock market attempts.

you're supposed to tell us before (or during) you pull the trigger so we can evaluate and follow

[b_t]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


you're supposed to tell us before (or during) you pull the trigger so we can evaluate and follow

bingo

that way we can all be a support group for each other when we take a bad position... like me holding a bunch of JNUG at 7.56 right now

[jdmXSI]

Wow, thats quite the move for gold! Hopefully it will stay up over 1254 and miners actually react postively to this!