Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

well I think the wave 4 correction in oil has certainly confirmed to be completed. it is moving towards wave 5 > 49 oil.

my lower order for silver did not trigger, but I am glad at least I have a position at 18.5 silver to ride this wave.

hopefully the strength in gold today is real. gold has traded sideways for way too long and would be nice to finally see it give us a nice run in the coming weeks.

[Meback]

Same old circle jerking bs. Question is do what are you doing silver rex?

[Meback]

Double post.

[bjstare]

I don't get it. I thought rate hike news might be bad news for gold. Or maybe I'm confused, someone want to try and bring me up to speed?

[SilverRex]

sorry for the long post

but here is some read on the speech

Yellen push back at hawks creates confusion

Patti Domm | @pattidomm
Tuesday, 29 Mar 2016 | 7:28 PM ET
CNBC.com
312
SHARES
361
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Yellen: Global developments pose ongoing risks Yellen: Global developments pose ongoing risks
Tuesday, 29 Mar 2016 | 12:40 PM ET
‹
Yellen: Global developments pose ongoing risks
Yellen: Global developments pose ongoing risks
03/29/16 12:40 PM ET
Yellen: Inflation expectations may have drifted down
Yellen: Inflation expectations may have drifted down
03/29/16 12:43 PM ET
Yellen: Appropriate for FOMC to proceed cautiously
Yellen: Appropriate for FOMC to proceed cautiously
03/29/16 12:49 PM ET
Yellen on risks to U.S. economy
Yellen on risks to US economy
03/29/16 12:56 PM ET
›
Fed Chair Janet Yellen attempted to reassure markets that the U.S. central bank will move cautiously with further rate hikes, pushing back at recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials. But the Fed chair also managed to unleash a backlash from some of Wall Street’s more often staid economists.

Yellen, speaking to The Economic Club of New York, said that it is appropriate to proceed with caution in moving policy, and that economic and financial conditions are somewhat less favorable than in December when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nine years.
But some Fed watchers thought Yellen’s message was murkier than usual and raised doubts about the central bank’s forecasts and monetary path.

“Janet Yellen gave her audience limited lip service to ‘baseline’ projections and expectations for dual mandate improvement and rate normalization, but carpet-bombed her audience with possible downside caveats. In so doing, she created the distinct impression that she had little confidence in the Fed’s baseline outlook,” wrote Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, in a note.

Read MoreYellen: Economic readings mixed, appropriate to be cautious

Citigroup economists cut back on their rate hike expectations after the speech and now expect just one rise this year, in either September or December. And Amherst Pierpont’s chief economist, Stephen Stanley, said the chair’s speech revealed herself to be a “radical dove,” in a note he titled “Janet Yellen jumped the shark.”

“In the past, she and I might have looked at a glass of water and disagreed about whether it was half full or half empty,” wrote Stanley. “Today she took the partially full glass and dumped most of the water out and defiantly declared the glass mostly empty. Her assessment of the economic and policy outlooks is well out of step with most of her colleagues on the FOMC as well as most private sector economists.”

Yellen’s appearance was the first since several Fed officials suggested last week that the central bank should start to move more quickly to raise rates, even as early as April.

Those comments were viewed as surprising and a sign of disagreement within Yellen’s Fed, particularly after the FOMC issued a dovish statement after its March meeting.

“There really wasn’t any new direct information content. We know they’re going slowly. We know they’re being cautious. We know they’re being flexible. What was new was the weight of risks,” said McCarthy. “She heaped them on. She came off as being uncertain about the outlook for growth, inflation and therefore monetary policy. … If the price of everything goes up then she’ll be convinced they’ve finally beaten back deflation.”

Markets took her words as dovish and stocks rose, the dollar weakened and bond yields fell, particularly the Fed-sensitive two-year note yield. That note slipped to 0.78 percent from 0.84 percent before her speech. Bank stocks fell with declining yields.

“Curiously, for a central bank presumably in the middle of a tightening cycle, Yellen’s speech focused more on downside risks that those to the upside,” wrote Dana Saporta, director of economic research at Credit Suisse. Saporta said she expects Yellen would have been just as dovish had the other Fed officials not called for rate hikes.

Traders also focused on her comments that progress has been made in inflation measures, but that she sees inflation remaining low this year and the prospect of down readings concerns her.
“The major thing that changed since December and March that affects the baseline outlook is the slightly weaker-than-expected pace of global growth,” Yellen said in response to a question after her speech.

Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics said the Fed chair “caged the hawks” on the FOMC and she ultimately is the most important vote on the committee.

“We see her desire to really experiment and let the unemployment rate fall further. She’s given herself wiggle room with the data. Obviously, data dependent means something else. It means ‘subjective data dependence.’ … Glacial is now an overstatement for Fed rate hikes. We’ll probably get one in June but I also think we’ll get two dissents in April. This is going to be confusing for markets over this tug of war to raise rates or not.”

“I don’t think she meant to pull back markets as much as she did. … I think the reaction to it is because it stands in such bold contrast to: ‘Let’s go, let’s go, let’s go,'” said Swonk

She said Yellen believes that there could be persistently low inflation even in a lower unemployment environment where employers do not increase wages, sparking inflation.

Markets also priced out a full rate hike for 2016 immediately following Yellen’s comments, and according to RBS, the odds for a rate rise fell to 25 percent for June from 32 percent. The expectation for a full rate hike by December dropped to a 90 percent chance.
“One of the challenges of transparency is when you’re transparent during a period where policy is in flux, and new things are being tested. In being transparent, you’re also exposing vulnerability and that’s what we’re seeing here,” said Saporta.
Read MoreShock cuts to Q1 GDP show economy could be faltering

John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas at RBS, said Yellen was not so much countering the hawkish comments but reinforcing the March FOMC statement.
“How much of this is keeping markets on your side to gain time for overseas concerns? The Fed gets very involved in the markets so it’s hard to tell,” said Briggs. “Either way, her comments are conducive for easier financial conditions for the United States.”

Yellen did say the U.S. economy and labor situation in particular are making progress, but her concerns suggest a very slow path of rate hikes. She also said the Fed has the ability to be accommodative. Recent data have been mixed and economists cut the median first-quarter GDP growth tracking estimate to just 0.9 percent Monday after weaker consumer spending data and a wider trade gap.

“I think it depends on all of the things she’s really focusing on — inflation expectations, overseas and whether the U.S. economy holds up. Certainly what she’s doing is helping weaken the dollar which helps out the overseas side, keeps rates low and stocks higher,” said Briggs.

[SilverRex]

based on the currency movements, I think the news is very mixed. perhaps a couple of days as we will see a better direction

gold barely hanging on to slight gain on the hourly chart.

[Disoblige]

Because she pretty much said nothing new, I think it works out ok. Won't be a spike in gold, but just a gradual grind into the coming weeks. September hikes pretty much off the table IMO.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Because she pretty much said nothing new, I think it works out ok. Won't be a spike in gold, but just a gradual grind into the coming weeks. September hikes pretty much off the table IMO.

agreed, usually too strong a move results in instant profit taking and reversal. a slow grind over multiple week is actually the better.

look at what happen when they raised the rate last year, a 20%+ drop to begin 2016 in the stock market. I doubt they will allow it to repeat during election.

also again, the India gold buying spree will begin soon and a strong September seasonal strength for gold will be perfect.

[ercchry]

So I've been trying to watch the commodity report on bnn everyday... And I'm a little confused. They had someone on talking about gold and he said end of August/ early September is usually weak for gold?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ercchry
So I've been trying to watch the commodity report on bnn everyday... And I'm a little confused. They had someone on talking about gold and he said end of August/ early September is usually weak for gold?

there are different charts depending on how far you want to go back.

but here is one

[SilverRex]

well so much for the gold rally. more test.

talk about volatility

it feels like all the bulls and bears are fighting this out and is down to within 10 dollars of gold prices.

[Disoblige]

Fischer talking, that's why lol!

[Meback]

Fuk these trolls.

[SilverRex]

it just completely amazes me how someone's speech can change the market this much.

at the end of the day, there is no substance, I can see payroll figures being more impactful (manipulated or not)

it almost appears traders are not investors but momentum traders. its time to evolve and follow..

Christmas came early as my entire portolio keeps flashing green and red every few minutes.

[SilverRex]

Yellen mention buying asset in her speech.

so she tells Fischer, "say something dollar positive so we can start buying these asset prices near today's low"

Fischer "Your the boss, what ever"


market took out every longs who had stops today. and now they will take out every shorts who had stops.. the madness continues,, bank wins from all the trading fees today. my bet is on them instead j/k

[bspot]

I'm semi committed to the idea of holding my current energy and JNUG for the rest of the year and doing absolutely nothing. Any massive upside between now and then and maybe scale back. Too many losses lately dicking around trying to catch swings.

[el_fefes]

^ I'm on the same boat.

[SilverRex]

looks like miners are indeed moving into a 5th wave down (lower low) considering gdx was unable to sustain the breakout over 27.86 today

[bjstare]

Got stopped out of JNUG @ 20 this aft (which is ok, cause my avg cost was like 19.3 or something). Will look for another entry next week, hope to see this weakness silverrex is thinking about.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok lets look at gdx today.

not much to comment to start the week. But to remind you the chart I posted last week on the two possible paths for miners.

personally I am still leaning towards this is a medium term correction that should bottom this week if not last friday for the next up leg. But do keep the bearish red path in mind as it can turn into a more severe correction which is really a fantastic buying opportunity however one has to be able to have a plan for both scenario, this way you will not be stressed out