Official Short-term Investments Thread

[jacky4566]

Originally posted by Disoblige
More pain for gold, and higher DXY. Thanks to Japan.

What am i missing here? Why thanks to Japan?

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by jacky4566


What am i missing here? Why thanks to Japan?

Bank of Japan left rates unchanged. Weakened yen and dollar continued upward, resulting in weaker gold.

[anarchy]

Originally posted by secol
what a red day for the green guys.....got in on CGC/APH and thought i had a decent position

Yup. I got out of CGC at $10 last week but stayed in APH. Was contemplating getting out of APH yesterday at $5 but decided to stick to it. Then it dropped like a rock, and down 11% today (recovered to about 6% but still).

Brutal - gotta just wait it out I guess. Looking for a buying opportunity but I'm not going to try and catch this falling knife.

[secol]

bouncing back up a bit

[SilverRex]

so close adding another tranche in jnug. did not quite hit my next buy limit order.

fcx so far acting like yesterday was in deed the bottom.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
so close adding another tranche in jnug. did not quite hit my next buy limit order.

fcx so far acting like yesterday was in deed the bottom.

Any updates on le Oil

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ickyflex


Any updates on le Oil

i havent pay much attention to oil since i no longer have any position.

just a simple approach. looks like ever since oil has broken out and have so far successfully backtested the previous breakout area in the 51.x. as long as oil does not close below 50 which will mean a h&s pattern obj down to 46. then the path to 60 oil should still be on radar.

in the short term, it looks like oil does have 5 waves off the recent low at 50 or nearly a completion of 5 waves. ideally oil may need to dive under 51.5 one last time before a strong move up.

perhaps this week's inventory report is the catalyst for either direction. under 50 towards 46 or retest 51.5 then new highs

only worry is that seasonally oil is typically looking for a bottom this time. so if one has no position in this sector, i would rather wait for the under 50 scenario.

[SilverRex]

silver has 5 waves off the bottom today. it is impulsive, and pending no complete reversal. we could be looking at a very nice bullish reversal hammer on the daily.

this is a very strong first sign potentially the bottom in this sector could be in.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex


i havent pay much attention to oil since i no longer have any position.

just a simple approach. looks like ever since oil has broken out and have so far successfully backtested the previous breakout area in the 51.x. as long as oil does not close below 50 which will mean a h&s pattern obj down to 46. then the path to 60 oil should still be on radar.

in the short term, it looks like oil does have 5 waves off the recent low at 50 or nearly a completion of 5 waves. ideally oil may need to dive under 51.5 one last time before a strong move up.

perhaps this week's inventory report is the catalyst for either direction. under 50 towards 46 or retest 51.5 then new highs

only worry is that seasonally oil is typically looking for a bottom this time. so if one has no position in this sector, i would rather wait for the under 50 scenario.

Thanks!!

Anyone have any ideas why BTE has been such a lagger lately. Meanwhile Meg almost 9.50

[Disoblige]

Miners close green, barely. Meh, I'll take it.

[sputnik]

CCL Industries position had a great day today.

Almost dumped it a couple of days ago.

[SilverRex]

after the mini 5 waves off the low with gold today. follow by a text book wave 2 correction. sub wave 3 appears to be happening right now.

in order to seal the low at 1122 to be the bottom. gold must impulsively and aggressively break above 1142 and remain above it.

one last bearish scenario is that it will have trouble in the 1140-1144 area which can turn the last couple of days in a flat abc correction with one more low ahead.

similarly, silver needs to convincingly break above 16 and hold above it. for a similar stance

[SilverRex]

just to add to the previous post on oil.

as you can see, oil has not only broken the neckline but also successfully backtested it.

so long oil remains above 50, i expect it will find its way towards the 60-70 area. then neckline breakout is a reversal h&s pattern. just like how gold broken down from its own h&s pattern and resulted in a water decline towards the 1100 area. oil is in a similar pattern but in reverse.

of course nothing is ever 100%, it is just more likely scenario. nothing can stop oil from crashing and this breakout being a head fake. so the line in the sand imo is 50.00. with a surging oil, the stock market will continue to push upwards

[Disoblige]

I'd love to see SPY rally with gold, that really will pop the miners up. I'm thinking if we pass 1144, there isn't much resistance from there back to pre-FOMC levels.

I would be very surprised if that happened before year end though.

If I get out of my JNUG bag profitably, I'm getting my dream watch :P

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I'd love to see SPY rally with gold, that really will pop the miners up. I'm thinking if we pass 1144, there isn't much resistance from there back to pre-FOMC levels.

I would be very surprised if that happened before year end though.

If I get out of my JNUG bag profitably, I'm getting my dream watch :P

well forgot to mention, there are some stiff resistance for gold right now. denoted in R1 and R2. gold is testing R1 now as we speak..

of course the counter thinking is that if gold can break above these two resistance zones which is the same as breaking above 1142 tomorrow and produce a swing low by taking out 1145.

that would be bullish confirmation

[Disoblige]

Still early I guess, but not looking so good this morning for gold. So little volume even with USD down.

And home sales numbers just released and it's more sales than expected.

[riander5]

Golds going down down down. Trumps ushering in a new era of productivity and wealth. The USD is going through the roof!

[riander5]

I can sympathize to all your gold plights as I made the same mistake with oil. Dont try to catch the falling knife - the trend is your friend no matter how many wave theorys silver rex posts (I still love you silverex)

I thought I caught the bottom of oil the first time it hit 35, then sold at 30, then it hit 27 or w/e and climbed to 40. Wont make that mistake again

[SilverRex]

right now all things are waiting on the performance of the US dollar, it is looking for it's wave 5 top. until it does, gold probably would continue to grind side ways or lower.

gold still cant break above R1 (last chart), silver looks a lot better. if there is anything for gold by Christmas it needs to show its hand soon or this could very well be a January thing just like in 2015.

oil is coming back down to test under 51.5 as i have suspected. now key moment. it has retraced enough and also needs to make a move without breaking below 50.00

fcx after 5 waves off the recent low, is looking like a wave 2 correction with wave 3 to come. fcx is pretty text book Elliot wave.its nice when things move according to plan.

for biotech, i wonder if xbi does want to fill the gap down to the 58 level.

[Disoblige]

Personally, one fundamental reason that is keeping me holding is how long can this dollar and market rally last? Is Trump going to deliver all his promises? I say no. When will reality set in and people start getting back into gold?