Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

just a quick post on gold.

even though gold did not close on or above 1221. it did produce a weekly swing and closed higher than the previous week which continues to add momentum and technical buying.

even removing the counts. the inverse h&s breakout on two a double pattern points to a target of 1240-1250 in the coming week.

the 1243 area is also a significant resistance, its the 200DMA on the daily so I suspect that would be the next major resistance area or profit taking zone.

some notables. gdxj is big on the SoS list friday, typically a early warning sign for weakness. but this is not always the case.

can gold suddenly drop under 1180? sure it can. but any significant drop is a good buying opportunity imo.

[SilverRex]

also I still consider miners are quite lack luster. perhaps it is still waiting for one more good sell off before really breaking loose.

one key element is tracking the US dollar, the big picture monthly chart here you see the obvious negative divergence on MACD and RSI.

dollar could very well be putting in a multi year top here. Even if it manages to make a new high in the coming weeks or months, I think the next big move is down.

the daily chart chart may suggest it could have produced a daily cycle low last week and may bounce in the coming weeks to form a right shoulder pattern. if this is the case, then gold/miners could continue to either move sideways or drop to a lower low.

I will be waiting for any good opportunity to jump back in if this scenario unfolds.

[SilverRex]

looking at fcx, failure to breakout has resulted in a larger flat ABC correction. as long as it continues to hold above the orange neckline breakout. if it begins to continuously close below this, a quick recovery even if it test the 200EMA is fine, but a weak to no recovery and trading below this neckline would warn the 12s (which was the original correctional target) will be back on the table.

there is also a rising channel line in the 12s. it is very possible. while I have two position in the 13s which I will not touch. I am swing trading with stops. re-entering my 3rd position after seeing a double bottom at 15.72, if it takes me out then I will try to catch a lower entry.

[Disoblige]

I feel like if there was a catalyst today, gold would have blown through 1230 no issues.

Also, it's interesting to see that GDXJ is over twice the % gains over GDX.

I was wrong about JDST it looks like haha. It's gone.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
I feel like if there was a catalyst today, gold would have blown through 1230 no issues.

Also, it's interesting to see that GDXJ is over twice the % gains over GDX.

I was wrong about JDST it looks like haha. It's gone.

gdx was first to breakout from it's multi month down trend channel, and I think gdxj didnt achieve the same breakout until last friday.

people are always hesitate around these major channel lines. by the time everyone realizes what is going on big percentage move has already been established.

jnug up 192% in around 6 weeks off the low in December.

Jnug is also outperforming gdxj even though that is what it tracks. gdxj has risen 47% yet Jnug has risen 192%

[secol]

Originally posted by secol
had a sell order on cgc (weed) this morning. didn't think it'd hit it, but in the last half hour it smashed through 10.3s and it executed. cgc/weed closed at 10.5s. guess i'll just sit on the sidelines and keep an eye out if it experiences a pullback. can't complain since i ended up with about a 15% gain over a month and a half

top keeps blowing up on cgc/weed.....up to 11.1s now

up to 11.4s

11.6s now

[ickyflex]

Canadian Energy getting punished again, surprise surprise.

These NAFTA/BAT talks couldn't come sooner

[Disoblige]

JNUG 12+

[riander5]

Get ready to swap it all to JDST or whatever equivilant

[Disoblige]

Was there a catalyst at all today for this, or just mainly technical?

JDST oversold, but this range is a bit scary because Asia can take this close to 1300 tonight potentially due to lack of time spent in this range to build the supports and resistances.

I can't believe JDST/JNUG are pretty much even now. What a crazy day.

[jacky4566]

Meanwhile in Canadian oil, BTE and MEG continue their rampage.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by jacky4566
Meanwhile in Canadian oil, BTE and MEG continue their rampage.

Yup technically the last major rally was damaged so I am waiting for lower prices

It has been a great day

GPL breaking out, fcx holding well, drys is making the move I suspected, and 70% of my entire portfolio is riding this gold wave. I think another 10% I will capture all my gains back that was lost during last years serious correction and gold/miner hasn't come close testing it's high yet.

[Kloubek]

Jnug now +22.5%. Crazy.

I actually had Jnug today, and rode it to 12%. Took it out and reinvested in something else for only an additional 2% gain on the day. Man am I kicking myself on that choice.

[asp integra]

Is this a peak for jnug or will it keep rising?

[SilverRex]

the move on miners look impulsive. this could be the wave 3 we have all been waiting for since last year. if that is the case no point trying to pick tops and bottom, just buy and hold.

if this is wave 3 then before you know it we could be knocking at last year's high

[ercchry]

^^that would be nice... just hit even today on my feb contracts, would be nice to recover from the jan ones, would only take another 5% from dgc, then it's all $$$$$

[Manhattan]

From a macro perspective is the idea that higher volatility & interest rates (i.e. inflation) will support higher gold prices?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Manhattan
From a macro perspective is the idea that higher volatility & interest rates (i.e. inflation) will support higher gold prices?

this is not my comment but i do agree

"Gold and interest rates sometimes move in opposite directions as expected... But they sometimes trade together, too. In fact, since 1969, the data show gold and interest rates have moved together nearly as often as they traded inversely.

For example, many investors know that gold soared in the 1970s. From the time President Richard Nixon closed the "gold window" in 1971 through the peak in 1980, gold rallied from less than $50 per ounce to $850 per ounce... a gain of more than 1,600%.

But what you may not realize is 10-year rates more than doubled over that same time, from less than 6% to more than 13.5%.

The same thing happened in the recent bull market. Ten-year rates rose from around 3.2% in 2003 – just over today's levels – to more than 5% in 2006. Yet as you can see from the chart below, gold doubled from $350 per ounce to more than $700 per ounce over the same time period...

In short, folks who argue that rising rates must be bearish for gold simply don't know history."

[Disoblige]

Awaiting consolidation for miners. Once this occurs, I'll be eyeing JNUG entry.

[SilverRex]

dont you just love it when things move according to plan. GPL/GPR indeed 3 pt flag consolidation breakout. I will be looking to take half my position off the table when it gets near or test the previous peak around 2.2.

The two position I planted back in Oct/Nov is looking pretty sweet. A typical strategy is to remove your initial investment and let your profit ride. this way you will always be ahead.