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Thread: Official Short-term Investments Thread

  1. #31241
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    gold

    as expecting, gold never was able to close above 1251 to initiate a breakout, hence it continued on down towards the 1240 target which was achieved over night.

    after testing the bottom of the channel, gold once again is trying another attempt at breaking out of this channel.

    so first sign is a close above 1247.59, but there are either hurdles with the same 1251 becoming a secondary resistance as well as 1254 since the projection for this correction is down to the 1217-1230 area, we are not quite there yet.

    miners did have a pretty good BoW yesterday which would or should cause a bounce today

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    fcx

    looks like sub wave 3 and 4 was done and sub 5 underway
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    Out of JNUG. Meager profits, but gold looks happy to retest the previous breakout a few more times which will just drag it down the above channel further.

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    looks like GDXJ just broke out. Is it real ??

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    gdx

    while my own personal expectation is to wait for the typical correctional target down to the 21-22 area. it is very interesting that miners are starting to have trouble selling off to new lows. I believe miners are now just waiting for gold's next big move.

    if gold decides to punch right thru above 1255, then miners will jump the gun the end the correction by breaking out of this wedge.

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    Well I blew that one. Oh well, blowing it for small gains beats how I've screwed it up in the past. Gold is still a bit in no-man's land, so I'm ok being tentative.

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    Closing the rest of my UWT. 16.60-19.80.

    4 green days has very often produced a lower open on day 5, so I may look for reentry Monday.

    BTE not moving was not part of the plan. That was supposed to be my vehicle to ride this longer term. I'm wondering if it's prudent to throw more $ at that hoping when it does break to the upside it is going to be a massive short squeeze, but I'm almost at 20% of my portfolio in BTE which is more than enough.

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    bte

    just as I thought, after 5 waves up, it was only logical that it started to correct and back down to the 3.33 level which is minimum. it will only be a concern if price closes below 3.21, if the bottom is in, bte should not close below 3.21

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    fcx

    fcx
    right now I suspect we may possibly have 5 waves up completed. if so, price should then find its way down to the 12.5-12.90_

    however wave v of (i) is sort of short so it is also very possible we are still in wave iv of (i) with wave v of (i) to come._

    either way, everything still looks very healthy. The only extreme bullish case would be the recent correction being wave 2 and wave 3 is about to launch. this will be confirmed if price suddenly breaks north of 14.00 impulsively.​​​​​​​

    and of course how can you go without a bearish alt count. give how alt A to alt B appears to be 3 waves down. cant rule out we are in some sort of larger wedge pattern. We will know this if and when price closes below 12.50 again.

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    Its a GOLD RUSH!
    Glad I bought some JNUG first thing.
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    Magical internet money for everyone!

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    gdx

    not much changed from last week. miners still waiting for either a breakout to the upside or a breakdown. although it has been outperforming gold lately which is a good sign if your long miners.

    if we see miners breakout impulsively, 23.11 needs to hold to confirm wave iiii in progress.

    a break below last week's low will no doubt resume the original target price down to the 21-22 area.

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    taking a stab at bte with stops below 3.20
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    Originally posted by SilverRex
    oil

    its great when I dont have to do any recount or reassessment. oil is playing out to the green path perfectly. final confirmation is to see oil recapture above the previous support at 51.64

    its amazing how oil at 47 was never broken because that was the line in the sand if I was to see a very bearish outlook on the medium term. with a strong seasonal heading from now until oct. Oil looks pretty good at this time hence I have opened a position in BTE at 3.29 during this wave 2 pull back.
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    gdx

    with a gap up this morning. GDX must hold above 23.17 unless it can produce 5 waves up from 22.78 as well as above 23.11 to confirm breakout
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    usa.to

    looking at the big picture, it would appear we have a 1-2, 1-2 setup as well. ive bought my first position pre reverse split at 2.88 and have increased my position size by 50% during this pull back in the 3.6x region

    now we wait. direction may depend on when gold/silver wants to move. as I am reading that there is some cycle low in the May/June and August time frame. so it is entirely possible gold/silver may actually drop off the cliff once an intermediate top is formed pushing out the miners for further correction or side way grind before a year end super rally.

    if this is the case the only other scenario I see is an extended running flat with price breaking or revisiting wave (c)

    I dont think price will ever break below 1.00 ever again.

    stocks correction looks like it is about to end and ready for a wave v of 3 sequence. this may damper any excitement in the gold sector.

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    Bought back UWT near yesterdays lows, partial position.

    Really wishing I loaded the boat in UWT for the last week instead of BTE. BTE is lagging badly. Hopefully some explosive upside there once the shorts get shaken off.

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    wow, anyone seeing SAN.VN ??
    Tap, Rack, BANG!

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    Originally posted by littledan
    wow, anyone seeing SAN.VN ??
    Cool. Maybe I will start looking at solar stocks.

  19. #31259
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    API:

    Crude: -1.83MM
    Gasoline: -2.56MM
    Cushing: +1.34MM

    Distillates were a build as well I believe.

    BTE with a nice pop into finish.

    This is continuing to play out like many of the recent moves up. 4 green days, a small red day, and the trend resumes. Unless the EAI numbers are way off the API data, should be a green day tomorrow.

    The bottom always looks so obvious in hindsight:

    click for larger version
    » Click image for larger version

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    with a strong ADP jobs report, gold is being tested heavily this morning.

    miners over all even though it is out performing gold, over all it remains weak relative to where they were with price. So the idea of a further weakness towards the summer period is not out of the question. the explosive rally may have to wait until towards the end of summer.

    watch gdx 23.11, if this gives away, it would spell more trouble ahead.

    for oil, oil has finally retaken above 51.67, will have to see if it can close above this to confirm a new intermediate advance has started.

    natgas, the longer it stays above 3.00, the longer this looks like wave 3 is underway. I am sure when natgas was in the 2.50s, how many would take the risk and hold on for a near 30% jump.
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