Official Short-term Investments Thread

[zhao]

I bought more tv this week on its big dip down to 1.40ish. That's exactly what I was waiting to happen with one of the stocks I was looking to buy, and in tv specifically it made no sense why it had a big sell off out of no where as zinc stockpiles continue to draw down, and zinc prices while they fell to 1.55ish, were still very high and should of had the stock trading in the 1.55ish range. That made it a no brainer to buy buy in at that price, so i'm back to having about 40g in this stock.

That paid off almost instantly as it rebounded by the end of the day, and while today on opening someone triggered a sell off and put it down to 1.46 or something again for about 3 seconds it tracked upwards all day and ended up sitting at around 1.59ish all afternoon, where it is still undervalued imo. zinc has also had a rebound back to its 10 year high over the last 48 hours, moving from 1.55ish back to 1.63+, so its possible we will see this stock move back in to the 1.60s tomorrow. I figure tomorrow will be somewhat stagnant for it, possibly seeing a small sell off of people taking profit from the move that just happened. if it moves in to the 1.60s without zinc going up more i'll probably liquidate and wait for another drop (although its getting close to q4 result time so I'll probably only liquidate half my shares)

we've also had about 10000 tons of zinc stock disappear from the LME in the last week, so wer'e now down to about 150,000, or still on a pace to zero that out for summer (although that is unlikely to happen). With that its possible we may see a new high for zinc by the end of the week as well, which may trigger a spike in the stock price pushing it back to 1.70ish. If zinc breaks in to a new high I wont sell unless the stock price hits near 1.70

[SilverRex]

Gold

US dollar just broke a neckline support and is hanging on barely trying to stay above it. The implication can be another big sell off (unless it was a false breakdown) another thrust down should give gold more fuel to continue it's rally.

pretty simple wave 3 top and wave 4 in progress (or may have completed) wave 5 to come. the more bullish scenario would be this is going to be an extended wave 3 orange count. personally I want to see an extended wave 3 simply because if this is the mother of all breakout (recognition phrase) then it needs to just keep stepping up with little to no pull back

[SilverRex]

Those who enjoy patterns,

did gold just printed a multi-month cup pattern with a handle breaking out? if proven successful, this is going to add another 100 dollars to the current level. 1450?

[SilverRex]

Sil.v

one of my smaller silver juniors. Got in at the 1.3x area when it first broke out of the descending wedge which I believed ended the year long correction. Surprisingly even with the entire mining complex on the verge of collapse last week this one held up very well. I think wave III has either started or we may get one more c of II under 1.80 before launch

[Disoblige]

3000 shares total JNUG in 3 different avg up positions. Will likely scale out tomorrow before weekend.

Slowly buying HMMJ as it dips lower. No position yet.

[SilverRex]

With the overnight news that the legalization of MJ being delayed, will see how this will affect the stocks as the sector is going to gap down at the open.

[SilverRex]

Gold

Gold

Negative divergence spotted this morning on gold. unless it can produce a new high above 1361.7 and turn it immediately bullish, this could mean gold still needs to drop below 1348 but needs to stay above 1336 to keep the uber bullish count alive.

[SilverRex]

US dollar

after what appear to be dollar breaking down it has now reversed and tries to recover all of yesterday's move down and on the verge of it's own divergence. for now I would say it will be a concern and will add pressure to gold if the index manages to break above 89 today. so one has to consider this key resistance

[Disoblige]

Selling all JNUG at open. Not worth risk based on US dollar bounce.

[SilverRex]

Gold bullish trigger

as I said, I think if gold can break above 1361.7 it could run away. From experience even with the negative divergence on radar, usually to my knowledge it isnt confirmed unless it breaks a nearby neckline support, so until then. one can still hold onto this count as a sub 1-2 in the works.

also Gold so far is holding up well despite dollar's strong recovery today.

edit: so far gold is reacting to the neckline found support. will see if this could translate into a bullish reversal

[SilverRex]

Natgas

no point in count natgas as this beast just goes after swings to the extreme in both directions. I have already mentioned once that it started a huge swing in late 2016 and slowly oscillating smaller and smaller until it got into a congested channel mess, then the swing started to reappear. If the same pattern continues, then the next good risk/reward setup might be down to the 2.3-2.5 area and I wonder if the next swing could generate an even bigger move between 2.3-3.8

I'll be watching this closely

[SilverRex]

Verdict is still out

gdx is in a bullish flag channel. either a breakdown or a breakout with another surge

[Red@8]

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ASFX

ive got another speculative suggestion. Not sure who played this one back in 2010-2012. was just a penny stock then. one of my failed trades and in 2012 it declared bankruptcy. So I thought it was dead weight. interestingly in the last few months I noticed pp action so I looked it up and apparently the short version was that the company was able to satisfied it's debt obligations and now tries to get out of bankruptcies. If you think about it, why would you do that? I think there may be some sort of value for a debt free shell company that could be acquired or reverse merger to take place. feels like the current price range is being accumulated. I have no crystal ball and not an expert for companies emerging from BK state. Maybe someone here can shed more teaching on this.

I think this makes another good speculative play. throw some beer money at it and see what happens. Be warn though if you are not prepare to lose it all, dont take my advice and jump in blindly with your life savings. this is not what this is about. No matter who is giving trading advice, always analyze for yourself the opportunity and make your own case.

I used to trade this as well. Unfortunately I no longer follow this one.

I do like GGI (Garibaldi resources) currently though.

[SilverRex]

MJ looks pretty weak right now. both ACB and WEED are trading beneath it's descending neckline which is the opposite of a breakout. if we dont see any type of impulsive move say weed back over 28.3 and ACB above 11, it may roll over to at least retest the previous low on Feb 2nd, and may even begin to target the low end of that prior wave 4. that is ACB in the 6s, WEED in the 16s and APH in the 10s. nearly having a similar footprint with bitcoin when it first looked like it bottomed only to form a 3 wave rally off a low and roll over to much lower prices

[SilverRex]

Negative divergence wins. Gold broke the neckline and is pretty bearish at least for the short term.

this neutralizes any immediate bullish momentum and back to the drawing board.

looking at gdx, the sell off is too steep to be marked as wave 4, so either we have a very bearish scenario unfolding 3 waves up and major selloff or 5 wave was completed between feb9-14 and we are in wave iii of c of (II)

[SilverRex]

gdx

miners is at a very interesting crossroad. but thanks to the steep drop on friday, as much as it is scary, it becomes more clear that the next move will tell us where she will go. initially was expecting the sell off to be some sort of wave 4 correction. But the sell off was too steep to be classify as one. (e.g. typical wave 4 should only retrace between .238-0.38 of the wave 3 move. .5 is a bit dangerous, and anything more usually entails something else different entirely. so I suspect we either have a very bullish 1-2, 1-2 setup which will require gdx to strongly breakout above 23.22 and trigger a significant rally (technicians will jump on board with a higher high because of the confirmation) or the double rally (as strong as it is) is only just a 3 wave. Remember that 5 waves is the trend and 3 waves mark a correction. That means we have lower lows to come. I dont expect an outright crash, rather a lower low to give us +divergence. the triple support under 21 has been tested so many times should give us confidence)

My personal strategy, since I did reduced my leverage position earlier in the week, I will plan to buy back or even add a bit more if I see price gives that new low under 20.84, or if the bullish breakout occurs, might add back my position above 23.22

in short, we will find out early next week one way or the other

[SilverRex]

Gold

gold looks much better than the miners and it can still be counted as wave 4 as long it holds above 1341 next week. the same 1-2, 1-2 count also applies if we see a higher high which again would trigger a lot of buyers. However if miners do see another wave lower under 20.84, then gold may also give us the same treatment. While I do not prefer this scenario because wave (c) are just scary to watch, I really hope it is already baked in when it hit 1306.8, and the outright strong reversal on feb 14th produced such an impulsive up move, you would think it now has wind sailing behind it. none the less, it is an alternate count that always has a possibility. Dialing down to the hourly chart I would say the first sign of trouble is under 1336

[SilverRex]

Icon

high risk / high reward play

my position is small about 2.5% of my portfolio. so far even with the strong pop it still only has 3 waves. initial thought would be to see a 5th wave breaking out of the down channel. failure to do this may still put this stock at risk of lower lows in some sort of ending 5 wave channel down. which is fine, as depending on if I have extra cash, might add a bit more each time a lower low presents itself. my avg price is 1.34, initial target that one can begin to take profit is to see the gap back fill in the 4s, long term would be a target of 10-15 dollars within 12-24 months and 100+ if you have the gut to hold it until you retire.

One key thing not on this chart, there is massive volume on this uptick, I seriously think something big is about to happen with this one. just dont loose sleep over it.

[SilverRex]

WEED

this sector looked bearish to end last week all having to close below the down trendline, but today it is trying to breakout. if this is a real breakout then MJ shares will run
ACB needs a move back above 11 to do the same

[riander5]

Oh its broken out. Lets see wave 3 here