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Thread: Official Short-term Investments Thread

  1. #31741
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    bought back a position in Jnug at 21.19
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    Sucks we are making money partially due to North Korea tensions but it is what it is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Disoblige View Post
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    Sucks we are making money partially due to North Korea tensions but it is what it is.
    gold needs to make a stand here and a strong reversal to close above 1325 for the week to maintain bullish outlook. otherwise, it will head towards the 1280-1300 for the next major support/backtesting. which imo is normal after such a run up.
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  4. #31744
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    despite US dollar is weak today, gold couldnt get any love from people perhaps fleeing the safe haven. After a false breakdown from the slopping wedge yesterday, and had a breakout to the upside instead would have typically signal the true direction. amid it is backtesting the breakout line, it appears to be struggling to turn around. If it breaks yesterdays low under 1315.49 then the move towards 1280-1300 for the major support will be next. until it does this I will hold on to the ever so slightly diminishing view that gold still has a chance to surprise everyone and make a move above 1375 before entering into an intermediate correction. I am hoping US dollar still has a capitulation move down to the 90 area before truly reversing for a month or two as a corrective counter trend move.

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  5. #31745
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    fcx

    fcx finally made that one more swing lower to hit below the prior wave (iv) under 13.82. now all is setup count wise for it to start making it's 5th wave above 15.70. need confirmation for price to find its way back above 14.54

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    mux

    mux never was not able to make it to 3.00 during this 5 wave move up. and wave 2 appears to be fully underway and may have even bottomed. the blue box is a very good buying area before the next move up which should be a very solid rise. The only question is did we just witness a sharp wave 2 pull back or will it require more side ways to lower grinding out a 5-3-5 wave count for the wave 2 bottom.

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    Update on Health Care/Cannabis Stocks -
    Organigram and Canopy Growth Both Sign
    Historic Supply MOUs With New Brunswick
    MT Newswires 09/15/17 07:50AM
    07:50 AM EDT, 09/15/2017 (MT Newswires) -- Organigram Holdings Inc. (OGI.V), a
    licensed producer of medical marijuana based in Moncton, New Brunswick, has
    entered into a memorandum of understanding with the New Brunswick provincial
    authority for the distribution of marijuana to the adult-use recreational market.
    Through the MOU, New Brunswick secures a supply of at least 5 million grams of
    recreational marijuana per year from Organigram, a statement said.
    Also on Friday, Canopy Growth Corporation (WEED.TO) and the Province of New
    Brunswick announced a "signicant
    milestone" in the history of Canadian cannabis,
    whereby the Government of New Brunswick, through a newly created provincial
    authority and Canopy Growth, a licensed producer of regulated cannabis, have
    entered into a supply Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to "guarantee a reliable
    and high-quality supply of cannabis products" into New Brunswick's retail stores that
    will ow
    from a crown corporation newly formed by the province of New Brunswick.
    Price: 2.27, Change: -0.03, Percent Change: -1.3
    Tap, Rack, BANG!

  8. #31748
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    bitcoin

    I dont trade bitcoin, the one time I was tempted was when it hit 700 a year ago but after discovering how much hassle it was to go thru with it I decided to opt out. No regret because the volatility is sickening. when btc was at 4800, it felt like head lines were coming out just like when gold hit 1900. I would expect a major top to have been in place and currently any bounce triggers sellers to lock in their profits. the only question is, using ccj an example of what happens during a major top. it is possible btc could still surprise everyone with one more leg up. but either scenario in the coming months or years imo should find its way back to the low 2000 area if not below it. Those trading btc should keep this in mind. I am quite surprise at how China is fighting this form of currency so openly After all, all government wants is full control of their citizens and their wealth and so btc go against that being a decentralizing currency. I do not believe btc will ever go away, and I do believe there are opportunities if one plans ahead and waits patiently.

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    gdx about to open the day near the key 23.68, with FOMC this week, prepare for some shenanigans.
    update: added a 2nd position on Jnug.

    natgas still looking good and so does fcx

    oil is still flirting with 50, need to convincingly break above this to kickstart energy share wave 3 up
    Last edited by SilverRex; 09-18-2017 at 09:01 AM.
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    locking in some profit here. selling 1 of 2 UGAZ position
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    oil

    quick look at oil chart. it does get pretty messy so I stop counting waves. all the overlaps will just drive you krazy. the obvious move came when oil broke the red channel neckline. After an initial false breakout, it finally punched thru follow by a successful back testing. the short term mini head and shoulder points to 51-52 next, price is current consolidating nicely. medium term I see a larger inverse head and shoulder target to retest the 55 area. I still expect oil to find its way to 60-65

    will continue to hold my energy shares for the next couple of months

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    fcx

    big picture count.

    again nothing has changed over all. fcx has a clear 1-2, 1-2 count. and we may even have another sub 1-2 completed. my own count I am leaning towards a scenario (orange) where fcx completes a 5th wave of i above 15.70 before a larger degree ABC correction. However there are currently two other scenarios. One is the extreme bullish count in green suggesting the wave ii bottom is in and we are at the beginning of wave iii advance. the other is that wave ii is relatively short in time, and has the potential for another wave lower meaning this rally could be a wave B of C rally.

    Even the worse scenario is a revisit of 13.00 to fill the gap left in July. However the bullish upper projection if the green path is on would be in the 28s.

    so the risk reward is definitely pretty darn good

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    mux

    thanks to the share dilution news which came out of left field. the count has been broken. it was perfectly setup 5 up off the low and was merely in correction. Now we have a new wave lower. perhaps a sub 3 down, with 1 more wave lower still. opening up the 1.6-2.09 area.

    Long term, this is still a great mining stock to own if you can hold for a couple years. High potential in the 35-57 range, low side in the 16 range. I will contemplate adding another position if it can break below 2.09
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverRex View Post
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    mux

    thanks to the share dilution news which came out of left field. the count has been broken. it was perfectly setup 5 up off the low and was merely in correction. Now we have a new wave lower. perhaps a sub 3 down, with 1 more wave lower still. opening up the 1.6-2.09 area.

    Long term, this is still a great mining stock to own if you can hold for a couple years. High potential in the 35-57 range, low side in the 16 range. I will contemplate adding another position if it can break below 2.09
    This is the kinda stuff I've been thinking would happen lately due to whats going on with the company. I was actually surprised it rallied back to 3.30ish, so that caught me out of left field. My crappy personal opinion (based off a few guestimates on what is going to happen) is still hold off until winter on this one. Low 2s I guess is possible, but I personally think their long term outlook is strong enough that it will be very surprising if it does hit that low. (Then again, I was proven wrong that pony would hit $3, figuring it would only dip under $4 and hover around there before eventually going up).

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    I also think my fav mining stock TV right now is a good buy again. A bunch of analysts recently published their revised opinions and they're all in the $2 range, some upgrading their previous opinions.

    1 month from now they'll have announced q3 production numbers and people are going to start doing the math based on average zinc prices over this quarter (record highs) and realize that TV's cashflow is starting to look retardedly good). A few weeks after that they'll release Q3 financials and they'll reflect the math people have been doing based off the production numbers, so we should slow upward movement over the next couple months from this point. any 1-2 day spikes in stock price will likely be followed by a correction IMO also, but still higher than before the spike.

    right now the things keeping the stock low are: our short term currency prices, someone dumped a lot of zinc on to the LME market in the last week freaking people out, but the drawdown is continuing to go down regardless, and china's economy being less than the best ever isn't helping.

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    oil

    here we go, oil breaking out of the bullish consolidation around the 50 area and onto the next important resistance zone of 51-52
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    I'm glad oil is finally moving my MEG stock back in the black.

    Rex do you have any opinion on silver? My research would point to GPL making some moves soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jacky4566 View Post
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    I'm glad oil is finally moving my MEG stock back in the black.

    Rex do you have any opinion on silver? My research would point to GPL making some moves soon.
    right now technically, there is a high possibility that gold is merely in a corrective rally. There is a H&S pattern on the US dollar, I am still waiting for the dollar to make one final capitulated low, this will enable gold to make a back test in the 1330-1340 area (not sure if it can muster enough to make a new high). Then as the US dollar finally makes a multi week/month counter trend rally out of an intermediate bottom, this should give the stock market a pause or sell off typical in this period then a Christmas rally into 2018.

    so while silver prices may not be going any where immediately, I am continuously looking for opportunity to add to my current holdings. GPL is one of my big 3 silver play. unless it makes a surprising move down 15-20%, I have enough invested to just wait and hold. (care to share some of your research on GPL?)

    My other one includes usa.to (USAS) some one who has closer ties with the company continue to confirm positive news and that the sell off recently was due to some silver fund manager changing their strategy and unloading all of there position. This is actually a good thing as it needed a good correction before the next move up. Looking to add more if it can make a 7-10% drop from current levels. and that is a big if.

    also the recent report suggesting a depletion of their reserve by 9% may have been negative to majority of investor but a closer look you will notice the measured/indicated increase by 16% and the inferred increased by 37% meaning the company will be spending more money to drill off the new zones and upgrade them to reserve classification. Newer report down the road will show a big increase.
    Last edited by SilverRex; 09-20-2017 at 10:35 AM.
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  19. #31759
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    here comes the FOMC shenanigans

    update: wasnt expecting such weakness in metals. was hoping it would push gold way higher before the collapse. unless things dramatically change by EOD, this hawkish dollar announcement will no doubt hamper any immediate upside momentum in the entire PM complex. we may have to wait until December just like 2015 and 2016 for a low to be in place.

    the over sold condition should yield some sort of counter bounce in the coming days. will slowly ease away my leverage and just put those funds into other opportunities as they come.
    Last edited by SilverRex; 09-20-2017 at 12:32 PM.
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    gold

    while gold did not formulate a rally out of the FOMC yesterday. but over all I have been eyeing the 1280-1300 area as a bottom. with the sharp pull back straight from 1357-1287, we may have a deeper low ahead in the 1260 area. The over sold condition should warrant a very good trade-able upside rally in the coming weeks before a final wave c drop. gold at the current area is a good convergence point meaning it should turn up regardless if it is in a bullish reversal or simple marking of a temp bottom follow by new lows. if gold turns around here and beings to take out all the over head resistance, then yes this could be viewed has a sharp wave 2 pull back then launch above 1357, however realistically with the US dollar gaining such a strong reversal and having been in decline thru all the whole year gold may need a longer pause before the next major rally resumes.

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