Official Short-term Investments Thread

[zhao]

you know what might be a tempting buy. HBC.tsx

11% drop today, mainly due to them saying they are going to lay off 2g people.

The company is basically half real estate owner/half retailer. Half the retail is shit imo, half the retail is ok, but it its not losing mega bucks. Retail is scary shit right now, but their stores aren't empty, they sell shit people want to buy, and generally have to or want to go to their stores to get. They aren't sears 2.0.

Price to book is pretty amazing when you factor in the property assets. They have some plans for the future. Not a total idiot at the helm. THey've been looking at other companies for how to develop a REIT. All-in-all i'd say at 8.60 i'd expect a real healthy rebound.

[max_boost]

Nice bump for Aphria over the last 2 days. Shoulda averaged down haha now might as well just wait for it to go back to 7? lol or not

[SilverRex]

gold

after gold appear to have broken out of the multi-year down trendline. it has since falling back under it. the 1259 key support I mention which is my land of the sand, held up so far. with price current staying above the multi year trendline. breakout or false breakout will be significant. If the breakout was real and the rise today was legit, gold needs to hold above 1269 and continue to move up.

the moment gold breaks down below 1269 and especially under 1259, I would then expect a multi month low to occur thru summer rather than a top.

[Manhattan]

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you know what might be a tempting buy. HBC.tsx

11% drop today, mainly due to them saying they are going to lay off 2g people.

The company is basically half real estate owner/half retailer. Half the retail is shit imo, half the retail is ok, but it its not losing mega bucks. Retail is scary shit right now, but their stores aren't empty, they sell shit people want to buy, and generally have to or want to go to their stores to get. They aren't sears 2.0.

Price to book is pretty amazing when you factor in the property assets. They have some plans for the future. Not a total idiot at the helm. THey've been looking at other companies for how to develop a REIT. All-in-all i'd say at 8.60 i'd expect a real healthy rebound.

You'll have to be real patient. They just slashed dividend by 75% which is never a good sign. Their retail in Canada is doing fine but the large majority of their sales comes from their brands and stores in the US which is tanking since its a MUCH more competitive environment. What you see locally at the HBC stores has very little effect on their overall results. It might be years before they can spin out a REIT and who knows what can happen in the time in between.

[kenny]

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You'll have to be real patient. They just slashed dividend by 75% which is never a good sign. Their retail in Canada is doing fine but the large majority of their sales comes from their brands and stores in the US which is tanking since its a MUCH more competitive environment. What you see locally at the HBC stores has very little effect on their overall results. It might be years before they can spin out a REIT and who knows what can happen in the time in between.

The whole Sears news is likely going to drag HBC down with it for a bit too

[SilverRex]

gold

after gold taking out the critical 1269 it became extremely bearish in the short term. miners are heavily oversold, cant rule out after initial gap down at the open price would give a relief rally.

looking at the daily chart. so far the false breakout appears to be holding. while nothing to get excited about, personally I dont hold any leverage play so I can wait this one out. infact I will be looking for opportunity to add during this pull back. I posted the 4 rate hike in blue arrow. while history doesnt always repeat itself, contrary to popular belief that rate hikes are bad for gold, one can clearly see how the first 3 hikes ended with gold going higher.

so with this 4th one adding to gold has also hit RSI oversold territory, and there is a key turn date of Jun 19th which I may have mention a while ago, there is still potentially a summer rally coming. However first we will see how gold reacts and wait for a daily cycle swing.

I am now going to watch how gold reacts if it can reach the 61% level of the 1214 to 1296 run up at around 1240-1245.

[SilverRex]

GDX / GLD ratio

another one can watch is the gdx to gld ratio. this ratio has been in consolidation ever since the sector bottomed late last year. in order for miners to start outperforming gold, this ratio needs to breakout would be another bullish sign if the summer rally (like last year) continues. it would now appear the ratio is trying to retest the rising neckline one last time making it a possible ideal spot for the bottom (within a week)

[SilverRex]

gdx

gdx was not able to make it to the 25-26 area as I first thought. for the time being it still looks like it is still in correction and working on wave c of ii. So long as price does not breach 20.89, this count remains valid and I am keeping the 25-26 area target at bay.

[SilverRex]

oil

hadnt posted an oil chart for a while. all these week to week swings must be killing alot of traders. I do not have any oil position. but if oil dives towards the bottom of the declining wedge in the 40-42 area I may just do given the risk/reward.

with all the global supply, there are talks that oil needs to head back to 20 or even lower before the real multi year bottom is in. I am now leaning towards this theory but still expect oil to make a run towards 60-70 oil before seeing a new low. then I expect the true inflationary cycle to begin where oil could then begin a secular bull market towards oil above 150.

the declining wedge to me looks corrective. I am not going to count the daily swings as it is pretty messy. the weakness in the producers are also confirming this notion imo. Even with this overall bearish case longer term, I think money can still be made by going long this year still then shorting the next.

[ickyflex]

markets are so crazy

BTE back at $3... oh the temptation

[zhao]

Markets are definitely fucked right now. I can't predict anything accurately right now.

Even my zinc stock (tv.to) I can't figure out right now and that stock was a no brainer before. Zinc fell a lot this week, so I figured the stock would go down like it always does when zinc falls, but it barely moved, so I didn't sell to cash in on my profits and rebuy lower. So zinc starts to recover yesterday and today nicely, and the stock falls like a brick today out of left field lol. Whatever, I bought more of it at a good price and it recovered a bit by the end of the day..... I haven't checked but my guess is some fund decided to lower their exposure in it; all I know is some jackoff decided to sell about 800000 shares right after lunch. Tomorrow if it doesn't go up I'm going to throw in the towel for trying to make sense of that stock lol, because zinc sure has rebounded in overseas markets right now. TV should go up about 5% tomorrow if zinc prices hold at their current price overnight.

As for energy..... what a trainwreck. NG has a huge rebound today, and yet pony.to still plummets. Makes me regret rebuying 2 weeks ago because what a hell of a deal that stock is becoming. Even if the NDP hang on to power in BC, I do not think they are going to do anything full retard with Natural Gas. Thank god I sold prior to that in the 5.6s when I assumed it would go down a bit... how wrong was I thought on what a 'bit' meant lol.

[zhao]

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You'll have to be real patient. They just slashed dividend by 75% which is never a good sign. Their retail in Canada is doing fine but the large majority of their sales comes from their brands and stores in the US which is tanking since its a MUCH more competitive environment. What you see locally at the HBC stores has very little effect on their overall results. It might be years before they can spin out a REIT and who knows what can happen in the time in between.

ya I dont want to buy it myself (except for quick in and outs), but i think if someone wants to go long, it could be a good stock to go in to. Slashing a dividend sure is shit for short term stock prices, but I see 2 angles that could be good for the future.

IMO sears is fucked, like fucked fucked. market cap of 80million, falling like a piano out of an airplane. Sears news is definitely dragging down HBC stock prices, because of 'reasons', probably more than HBC's own problems warrant. But when sears canada goes bust, that may be good for HBC. They'll have less competition, and that might translate into better sales. However, foot traffic may go down in malls by losing a big anchor store like sears....... but IMO sears isn't bringing a huge number of people to a mall anyway. My guess is there is a very good chance HBC will be back up to 11ish a share in 6-12 months.

Then there is the long term play where HBC may evolve in to something else entirely. I wouldn't worry too much about buying their stock unless they start selling off assets, or closing down departments, or shelves start getting sparse. I personally think HBC stock is pretty undervalued right now.

[SilverRex]

usa.to

the consolidation is real. I suspect big move is coming one way or the other. but so far nothing has change for me to invalidate this count. a wave of 1-2s. I have 2 position in the 2.88 and 1 in 3.6. The under performing silver junior miners would be a great sign in this complex if it can move ahead of the pack

[zhao]

Hbc was rocking it today. Instantly up 17% plus in the first 5 minutes of trading. Of course I own no shares lol

[cloud7]

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Hbc was rocking it today. Instantly up 17% plus in the first 5 minutes of trading. Of course I own no shares lol

It is always tough when you predicted something but don't have money riding on it. Good call though.

[zhao]

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It is always tough when you predicted something but don't have money riding on it. Good call though.

ya, even more painful because everything I've bought in the last 4 weeks is losing me money or going no where at the moment.

A month ago one of my picks was BBD.B. if it dropped to 2.05 i was going to buy. I bought something else over it (i think chr, which I made actually a bit on very quickly) but I could have gotten in on bombardier under 2.10 and now its currently at 2.59 lol.

APH/weed/acb I was watching and considering pulling the trigger on too. I could have gotten in APH close to 4.5, or acb close to 1.92, but I jumped back in pony as it was doing what i was expecting and totally misjudged the bc election... and well now pony is at 4.3 lol FML, while aph is 5.5 and acb is 2.1x.

Doesn't matter too much though. I picked pony because i think long term looks better. Bombardier is a fucking mess of a company and the only thing I like about it is its in quebec and because of that there is literally zero chance a Trudeau will let that company fail. APH/acb/weed are technically worth about as much as a fart in the wind and technically could be priced at anything at any time.

TV (pure zinc mining company) is my other limpdick pick, but technically it's done ok. It's had two solid rises of 10-15% and then two semi predictable falls since I bought it. If I was shorting it I'd be laughing now, but i'm fairly confident that stock should take off and I dont really want to sell it and get left behind. It's really confusing me now though sitting about 5-6% below what it 'should' be trading at right now. Random news out of China about one day the economy being down, and the next day it rock'n is about the only thing that makes sense for why this stock is down while zinc stockpiles continue to run out (the world mines about 12 million tons a year, and LME reserves are at about 310000tons (falling by 30000tons a month), the lowest they've been in forever. At some point you'd think zinc prices should skyrocket...

[bspot]

Time to load the boat on oil? It gets pretty scary if $43 breaks. Touching a down channel, oversold on all time-frames, and hitting major support at $43:

» Click image for larger version

[ercchry]

Why did I not get into HCG... $5 to $15+ in what? 6 weeks?

[ickyflex]

Still watching the market on oil. Hasn't stopped falling in a while

[SilverRex]

gdx

we nearly have 5 micro waves down which means we should get a bounce soon. right now gdx must remain above 20.89 in order to give any hope to a summer rally and on track to take out the 25.6 high. And it needs to do that soon. gold also needs to get back above 1260 to fend off technical damage. Until it does so, the risk remains to the down side. Gdx breaking below 20.89 would be first confirmation summer weakness underway for a possible low in August. which I have outlined in red wave (C) which will result in price taking out the Dec 2016 low.