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Thread: Official Short-term Investments Thread

  1. #29481
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    Originally posted by littledan


    ... I highly recommend you guys at least look in to each of these...

    SL @ 1.40 and ACB @ 2.30
    i feel like it's a bubble right now and scared to get in.

    market cap on ACB is something like 300mm right now based on those stock prices. I am actually a client of Aurora and i do like them and see their potential, but at this point i don't think they are worth a third of a billion dollars.

  2. #29482
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    Back from vacation and crudes up above 51. Need to go away for 2 and a half weeks and forget about investments more often

  3. #29483
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    Originally posted by sabad66

    i feel like it's a bubble right now and scared to get in.

    market cap on ACB is something like 300mm right now based on those stock prices. I am actually a client of Aurora and i do like them and see their potential, but at this point i don't think they are worth a third of a billion dollars.
    then play the swings and set a stop loss. i went in on them last week and sold a bunch for 13%+ gain in about two trading days

  4. #29484
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    Originally posted by sabad66

    i feel like it's a bubble right now and scared to get in.

    market cap on ACB is something like 300mm right now based on those stock prices. I am actually a client of Aurora and i do like them and see their potential, but at this point i don't think they are worth a third of a billion dollars.
    I don't necessarily think this will bubble out. At current production rate of ~7000 kg / yr, they would gross around $50 million. With plans to expand their production facility by 10x that could grow to over $400 million by 2018.
    Tap, Rack, BANG!

  5. #29485
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    The biggest thing with the industry that has me on the sidelines is government... for any meaningful growth it is going to take having a recreational aspect to it, the medical side is relatively pretty small for the amount of LP's out there... with the promises from the liberals and Obama's stance on not policing on a federal level things look great... but that can all change really quickly, don't forget about all the international treaties the USA and us are apart of either.

    BLO is my only exposure to it, which is a policing play really, so legal or not testing will still exist

  6. #29486
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    Originally posted by SilverRex


    oil has now reached the last of resistance zone near 52. while it could still push higher, I sense that with the current SM finally breaking out to the down side to complete the wave C of 2, it has the potential to pull oil down.

    looking for oil to pull back to the 47-48 area and back test the previous breakout line.

    for gold, we have FOMC minutes being released at noon. If gold makes an under cut low, I expect very good recovery as gold still has not back tested the 1275 area or even the 1300 area. so a good bounce is still yet to come. (of course not unless the rally to 1275 has started this morning, gold failed to close below 1250 so no lower low just yet)
    Last edited by SilverRex; 10-12-2016 at 07:09 AM.

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    not much has changed. gold has been pretty boring in both direction. however it has a slight edge trying to breakout of a consolidation.

    so far it still has not closed below 1250, so I am continuing to expect some sort of rally back to the 1270 area as a bare minimum with the high side into the 1290s.

    If gold takes out 1250, then watch out below. the drop could bring gdx down to the 21-22 area which is another 10% drop or 30% drop in Jnug. be prepared. I will be buying with both feet if I see Jnug in the 7-8 range.

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    just wanting to add a chart on gdx miners.

    while majority of the EW community are still expecting any rally in the gold and miners to be a counter trend move follow by a lower low.

    There is still a very small possibility that the market can and may have bottomed. One scenario is the leading diagonal pattern that was developed with an upside breakout. Not to mention wave 5s are usually the most difficult to predict as it is an ending wave and price can be truncated or end early.

    if we have in fact marked the bottom, then we need to see 5 waves up, 3 waves down (in RED) then a new high.

    so while I will be taking advantage of any good bounce to reduce my leverage. I will be paying attention to this scenario.

    imo, as long as gdx does not close below 23, I think we can try to anticipate it. That is why I will continue to just let my core miners run in the event a lower low does not come to fruition. But if it does, I will be ready to add

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    it appears Natgas has reached it's upper target range in the 3.4-3.5 area. Price should be topping soon as it has completed a 5 major waves up. Now expecting a major 3 waves down for wave 2 correction to take place that could bring Natgas down to the 2.5 area

    Last edited by SilverRex; 10-13-2016 at 09:13 AM.
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  10. #29490
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    like I said, watch gdx at 23 closing below this means the targeted 21-22 is very much in play and the entire side way consolidation could just be a giant flat correctional wave 4.

    the lack of silver participation today is one warning sign
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    Miners showing strength over gold. Lets hope they're leading. The $USD can piss off and die any time now.

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    Originally posted by bspot
    Miners showing strength over gold. Lets hope they're leading. The $USD can piss off and die any time now.
    there are technical EW'ers calling USD to make a 5th wave to new highs. That could be scary for gold. Then again, gold can rise with the dollar as well.

    for the short term, I want USD to close below 97.25 to start damaging the bulls technically.

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    while I am leaning towards a bearish outlook on oil in the short term, that could change if oil can print a weekly close above 52.

    with the general stock market technically fulfill the wave C drop (current reversing) the big wave 3 move to higher highs could begin as early as this week or perhaps after the election. We shall see when the market decides to abort the correction to begin a new rally.
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  14. #29494
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    excuse the large charting

    here is a generational count (not mine) on natgas...

    with all these generational bottoms and lows occuring, can we say massive inflation straight ahead?

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  15. #29495
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    Whoa miners. I sold JNUG way too early

  16. #29496
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    ok

    lets play that guessing game again.

    while everyone calling this a head fake, dead cat or counter trend and expecting to see 1180-1200 gold prices still.

    one theory I continue to try and believe is that gold is following the late 70s run. where it never corrected more than 10%. If this continues to mirror or hold true, then gold cannot break 1237.5 (from the 1375 top)

    since gold got very close, the bottom may be in, unless there is an under cut low where price would bounce off between 1237.5-1341 which to me may be difficult to do.

    so let just say gold did bottom, then what we now need to see is gold to make an impulsive upside move and turn 1265 into support. If it can do these and in time recapture above 1305, then we may have a real take off..

    yes in that scenario we look back to this day and ask ourselves what the hack just happened, why didnt I buy lol

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  17. #29497
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    another angle on gdx, a perfect rounded bottom forming. if this is the case, I am expecting it to be topping soon follow by a 3 wave correctional handle.

    if breakout occurs, short term target is back above 25 with the possibility to fill the previous gap

    again the same technical warning doesnt change. if gdx closes below 23 which is more than 61% retracement of the 22.5-23.7 rally, then not only does it kill the cup and handle pattern, but it resumes the lower low lies ahead down to 21-22.

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  18. #29498
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    Scaling out of UGAZ / UWTI, hopefully get a chance to buy back for lower if there's another dip.
    Go Flames!

  19. #29499
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    reduced half of my Jnug at 11.9
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  20. #29500
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    Out of JNUG for +7%

    Good time to get in DGAZ?

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