Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

looking at Barrick gold today. we have two scenario that could unfold. with gold sitting on a key rising channel right now, the entire drop recently could be a deep wave 2 retrace since the 1240-1237 rise and so as long as it does not produce a lower low under 1240, there is a good chance it can bottom here.

which brings me to Barrick. I suspect we are close to a bounce soon, this bounce will either fulfill the reverse head and shoulder pattern which will target 28s in the coming weeks or (if gold heads lower and becomes more bearish) or this bounce will be simply a wave iv dead cat that will make one move lower towards the 18 in an expanding wedge formation.

either way I think is still bullish long term. I have bought back one abx position in the 21.50s, will add another if it hits the low 18s

then just hold until Feb/March 2017 for an intermediate cycle high/top

[Vanish3d]

nat gas cant seem to make up it's mind

[Disoblige]

Sell order JDST $31.00
Buy order JNUG $9.90.

Let's see if it hits.

Edit: Changed order as bears taking over; key signal for me was it hitting the new high of the day.

Ended up selling JDST at $32.64 as my stop loss was hit.
Back into JNUG @ $9.25.

[SilverRex]

any caught the breakout in cooper this week? it broke out from a 7 year decline. I was told this is the most sensitive commodity that is signaling inflation. we could be at the beginning of a coming bubble in something... equities? oil again? silver?

[Vanish3d]

damn.

I had an order for JNUG at 9.8 and another at 9.0. Both got filled.....

[Manhattan]

We're in some kinda market twilight zone. Extremely low/negative interest rates, richly overvalued equities with almost zero growth, yet banks are tightening up lending practices. Market is very unbalanced and heading towards a deflationary environment which is a lot worse than inflation. Printing money will be the government's only way to get out of the next mess.

EDIT: CAD closely follows copper so if it rises so will our dollar.

[SilverRex]

with gold closing below 1275 and 1268 and this morning it is still trading below this, it is increasingly warning that further drop lies ahead. if gold does not quickly recover these level within today and monday, then gold will likely target the next support level near 1200. a drop like this will no doubt bring miners down with it gdx to 20

the market has been hot and the scenario where gold benefit is to see it pull back significantly thereby bringing the US dollar down with it as both the US dollar and equities market is moving in tandem.

might be good to hedge one's position using dust if 1243 is broken to the downside

[Disoblige]

In JDST $32.75 to hedge against my $9.25 JNUG entry as I do expect gold to go down further. Will be adding more JNUG if it dips into low 8's/7's

[Disoblige]

Looks like we're headed to $1200 guys. Prepare yourselves. Mad gold dumpage.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige
In JDST $32.75 to hedge against my $9.25 JNUG entry as I do expect gold to go down further. Will be adding more JNUG if it dips into low 8's/7's

I don't understand this strategy. Would this not be the same as just selling your JNUG position? (Assuming the $ value of your JNUG is the same as $ value of your JDST position)

[Disoblige]

Not really. If I sold JNUG for a loss, bought JDST, and things reversed for whatever reason, I could be screwed there.

But premarket made me realize there is still more room for gold to drop, so I'm just protecting myself until I believe gold has bottomed.

My worry right now is gold going below $1200

[el_fefes]

Holy shit! This drop is intense! Holding the bag with Yamana.... at least i'm not in JNUG...

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Not really. If I sold JNUG for a loss, bought JDST, and things reversed for whatever reason, I could be screwed there.

But premarket made me realize there is still more room for gold to drop, so I'm just protecting myself until I believe gold has bottomed.

My worry right now is gold going below $1200

I meant if you sold JNUG and did nothing and when you are ready for re-entry you buy JNUG.

[degeneratetrader]

JNUG is taking a beating. geez...

[Disoblige]

Originally posted by Vanish3d

I meant if you sold JNUG and did nothing and when you are ready for re-entry you buy JNUG.

Yeah I guess it'd kinda be the same thing $ wise assuming I sell JDST when I think JNUG has bottomed for a buy-in. But having both gives me more flexibility. I personally think gold will bounce back, but I didn't want to regret not getting in JDST early for a good price.

[bjstare]

I am pretty happy right now about unloading YRI a couple days ago and not being in JNUG. A shame that I didn't stick with JDST though, and just flipped it a few times this week.

[SilverRex]

learned my own lesson many times over during the last few significant drop to not ever go over more than 25% in my portfolio using leverage. while I lost some money with this down move, I am also quite comfortable with my current holdings... finally added another position to my mainstay with kinross making a new low.

was also able to reenter jnug lower

now we watch. technically there should be a dead cat bounce follow by 1 more drop perhaps to 1190-1200.

however do watch the miners and while it suddenly is recovering strongly. if for what ever reason it can close green, then implication is that this was more like a real shake out before a big rally

[Disoblige]

Oversold bounce happening right now in bull miners. Healthy consolidation for bears before higher highs?

Stop loss in place for JDST to protect profits.

Edit: I strongly believe JDST will hit higher highs before the end of today. Although, it is Friday and there could be profit taking during the last hour of trading today. I'm planning to sell before the weekend to protect profits myself. I'll add +1000 shares into JNUG if it hits $6.25 with lots of ammo left over to average down if required (in 1000 share increments).

[Vanish3d]

fuck it. Cut my losses of JNUG and jumped into JDST at 37.5

let's see lower low just for today then i'll get out and watch for a couple days

[SilverRex]

gdxj has finally filled the june gap, never thought it was possible, but it did. with a confluence of support, it has so far bounced off the down channel line. one thing to note, when RSI gets into extreme oversold (green circles) when it begins to turn back up, it always puts in at least a good 10% run up, even if she falls again after.

therefore I conclude gdxj will find its way back to 37-38 even if she heads a bit lower in the next few days.

I have one jnug position in the 7s, will add one more if I see gdx hit 20 or below