Official Short-term Investments Thread

[themack89]

Commodity bubble anyone?

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
Must be patient. This can't keep going up, or can it.

I hate watching on the sidelines.

I've definitely missed out on these recent rallies too. A lot of indicators have been showing the market as overbought but it can't keep going up forever. At some point, reality has to kick in!

[troyl]

Originally posted by BigMass


Market is tracked in nominal dollars which really isn’t doing good at all in regards to dollar inflation and the price of gold. If the market is up %10 but the dollar is down %10 how much have you really made?

If you are trading domestically ie in your countries currency and market I would say you are up 10% less the inflation rate, which i think is around 2%. Going back about a year from today the TSX is up around 15%, so I would say it is doing good.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by troyl


If you are trading domestically ie in your countries currency and market I would say you are up 10% less the inflation rate, which i think is around 2%. Going back about a year from today the TSX is up around 15%, so I would say it is doing good.

Yeah... Inflation is only 2%

Maybe on useless consumer goods manufactured in other countries.

Try looking at things you actually need to live ie MOrtgage payments (house prices), gas, groceries, transit, clothing, utilities, commodities etc...

[SilverRex]

NG looking good this morning,

[bwling]

Anybody in Xcite Energy (XEL.V)? It's up around 130% in the past 3 weeks.

I must admit that I missed the boat on this one. I bought in twice and sold for quick gains too early both times. Wish I had stayed in.

[nobb]

WestFire Energy is also another one with high gains in the last few weeks. I wish I had held that one for longer. Bought at 5.00 and sold at 5.70 in 3 days, but never held it to 6.60

Im glad I entered HNU at 2.79 yesterday. From the last few weeks trends it seems that between thursday and friday is the high for HNU, then starts dropping when monday hits. Will see how it plays out and possibly let go of it before the market closes today.

[s_havinga]

Finally some green in my portfolio! Haha, set up a stop loss on my UNG at break even.

[skandalouz_08]

Don't let emotion into your investing. Be happy you took your gains and not losses and move on. Just my 2 cents. When you always look at how much you DIDN'T make it starts playing games with your investing and you tend to get greedy.

Anyone here play options?

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by bwling
Anybody in Xcite Energy (XEL.V)? It's up around 130% in the past 3 weeks.

I must admit that I missed the boat on this one. I bought in twice and sold for quick gains too early both times. Wish I had stayed in.

Same. Oh well.

[KappaSigma]

I still like Compton for a longer time hold. They came out and continue to cut costs and improve effeciencies. Any sort of price increase and these guys run hard.

[dawerks]

I have been a gold bug for a while now. The Fed is screwed and gold is on a tear.

I just bought some YRI or AUY (US) again. They are producing 700K ounces, doubled their dividend and are decreasing costs.

It's due for a pullback, but last year at this time it took off to 15.00 and it had worse fundamentals.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by dawerks
I have been a gold bug for a while now. The Fed is screwed and gold is on a tear.

I just bought some YRI or AUY (US) again. They are producing 700K ounces, doubled their dividend and are decreasing costs.

It's due for a pullback, but last year at this time it took off to 15.00 and it had worse fundamentals.

I expect gold to make another high this winter possibly towards 1500, then correct most of 2011 while all miner and jrs will rocket.

the fun begins after the next big correction after topping out similar to 2008 which could set gold back 40-61% shake out of the decade, then go parabolic

[Seanith]

So wtf is oil doing? I thought ~$87 would be a resistance level and got shares of HOD. It would have only been a wise move for a few hours today lol. It ended lower. Should I stick it out for a week or 2 or does oil have long term gains projected?

[max_boost]

It's due for a pullback. I think HOD is a good bet here.

[themack89]

Originally posted by max_boost
It's due for a pullback. I think HOD is a good bet here.

Don't ever ever trick yourself by saying this. It will kill you eventually

Look at the chart on Cotton if you don't believe me

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Seanith
So wtf is oil doing? I thought ~$87 would be a resistance level and got shares of HOD. It would have only been a wise move for a few hours today lol. It ended lower. Should I stick it out for a week or 2 or does oil have long term gains projected?

oil is reacting to the drop in USD.

If the dollar rallies, oil will drop. oil inventories are currently at the highest they have been in 2010.

[Proyecto2000]

Any one hear any chatter about Bowood Energy (BWD : TSX-V) lately? It's currently sitting at .40 cents and this past week I kept hearing from different, unrelated people that something good might happen in the next week or so and that it was a good time to buy for a decent flip

[dawerks]

The H^U and H^D's are for real gamblers!

If you have any inkling of where something is headed, buy the leader in that industry (safe) or an up and comer (risky), but I would never, ever gamble on the double/triple hedge ETF's.

[SilverRex]

after the unexpecting while swing as a result of the fed announcement, it kinda throw the charts a bit out of sync, but no matter, at the end of the day, price is more important than news, as it factors in the news accordingly.

with the dollar index our low came in the mid 75, if you compare the initial drop of the dollar from 88.70 to 80.08 and the second drop from 83.55 to 75.60 recent low is still less than the first drop, there fore if the dollar has entered into a new 5 waves decline, this current wave III is not finished at all. Target towards 74-75 remains on the table. unless of course the dollar has became bullish and we have further upside to consider.

So looking at the chart here, we can see a break out neckline is in place just under 78. and a immediate ressitance near 77.20, my take is that the dollar should resume its sell off after a bit of a rally here. however if price over takes 77.20, then bets are off and dollar is ready to test the 78 neckline. it is breaking the 78 neckline that will concern me somewhat, while over all trend remains bearish, I am looking to either 77.20 or 78 as a resumption of price to decline further. Higher level critical resistance still lies at 80.08, so bearish view remains solid




as for gold, throwing a higher level chart up here. count appears 5 wave near completion, however lower level remains extremely bullish. While I am still expecting a pull back to the 1262-82 area as a retest/correction. To confirm this move we need price to swing back down below 1365 and stay there for a few days, otherwise expect momentum remains on the upside and quite possible turning 1385 into support. Its having a hard time cracking 1400 which is quite a mental barrier. if you see 1400 gets broken and turn into support it could lift gold another 50 dollars higher yet again.



last but not least oil, finally the consolidation pattern which I suggested previously played out perfectly, the upside breakout of this pattern and a retest 87 has now come and gone. Question is, where are we? well given my experience watching this pattern, typically I see after a breakout it would then retrace, with a gap near 85 that needs to be filled. and 87 being a previous barrier, my view is for oil to retrace down to the 80-83 area as a min. with a rising neckline near 80. it would be a good support retest. anything lower could warrant a further low, however if oil can break 87 and turn that into support, then it will just mean we have a few dollars higher to go before entering a correction . Oil can easily go both ways as it is waiting for the dollar index to decide if it is ready to decent to new lows. So if you have been following the pattern for a target price to 87, nice its the time to take some profit and either wait for re-entry or until we see 87 can be broken, even so, you can expect 87 becoming a good support and we should have plenty of opportunity to re-enter after