Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

right now it looks like gold is in a sub wave 3 off the bottom at 1310. wave 1 was 1323.

as long gold does not close below 1323 and silver under 19.50 I will continue to remain bullish

[bball2]

Good start for crude oil this morning, and now right back to below $45

[riander5]

Bad day for Netflix too

[bball2]

@riander5, did you go buy into GPRO at all? Up 5% today and my options are pretty much back to even. Still pessimistic about the earnings report but good play if you went LONG on them yesterday.

[SilverRex]

scaling down my Jnug 50% (just in case it drops for another low)

so far gold looking good. first big test is trying to breakout from the down trendline without being pushed back down.

biggest confirmation is to take out 1338 to seal the low at 1310

but i am still going to reduce my leveraged exposure and have cash on the sideline just in case it does the unthinkable... a full reverse back down or even a lower low.

I have to learn not be too greedy.

[riander5]

Originally posted by bball2
@riander5, did you go buy into GPRO at all? Up 5% today and my options are pretty much back to even. Still pessimistic about the earnings report but good play if you went LONG on them yesterday.

No as usual i dont listen to my own good advice and do other things which lose me money aka nflx calls haha

[SilverRex]

so gold was unable to remain above the down trendline and was not able to take out 1338 which I think is needed to seal the bottom at 1310.

unless it can aggressively move up this morning. the risk remains with one more lower low.

it is hard to tell where she may land considering there is plenty of support in various areas starting

38% fib level at 1308
previous wave low at 1305
50 DMA at 1301
50% fib level at 1287

With the FOMC next week. it is also possible gold could range bound until announcement.

if indeed a lower low drop, watch for the 5 day RSI on the daily chart to get even more oversold into the 20 or below.

silver chart looks a bit better at the moment still holding above 19.50, but gold is flirting with 1323 in the last couple of hours which is not encouraging.

[SilverRex]

lets look at oil this morning. it Definitely feels like oil is in it's final leg down. the bearish wedge finally produced a lower low breakdown. while it isnt powerful...yet. one could argue a mild ending following by an upside surge or we may only be in a final sub 1 of 5 that would point to a quick drop to 42 oil to end the correction.

a little bit more patience and we will soon know.

breakout confirmation requires (has always been) oil's inability to sustain above 46.10, and to seal the bottom by taking out 48 at this juncture.

[SilverRex]

I wanted to bring your attention to kinross. its one of my 30% holdings.

as you can see, a beautiful cup and handle pattern has been forming. a breakout could mean a 30% rally from the peak. Its only one stock, I cant say this is a sign that miners do have a higher high coming. Patterns are only 60% accurate. But I will take that chance over a bearish pattern any day.

[Vanish3d]

call me crazy but I sold all my JNUG shares at a loss and dropped them into JDST with stops at today's high. No point in chasing, might as well go with the trend of the daily market

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
call me crazy but I sold all my JNUG shares at a loss and dropped them into JDST with stops at today's high. No point in chasing, might as well go with the trend of the daily market

grads on picking the right side of the trade. experience tells me sitting tight often yields more profit than trying to swing trade. Not saying it doesnt work, but gold is in a bull market so you have to be careful. since your running full exposure on 3x leveraged play, thats a completely different beast

[SilverRex]

caution if your shorting miners.without stops

gdx looks like a reverse H&S setup. if gold suddenly reverses fully it could set off a wave 3 advance in the miners. miners were under performing yesterday and could explain the delayed action, but it is looking like it is trying to do the same thing gold/silver did yesterday

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex


grads on picking the right side of the trade. experience tells me sitting tight often yields more profit than trying to swing trade. Not saying it doesnt work, but gold is in a bull market so you have to be careful. since your running full exposure on 3x leveraged play, thats a completely different beast

I'm keeping tight stops and will get out by end of day regardless of outcome. As soon I'm up 5% I'll just do trailing stops up and cash out.

[bspot]

Dumped all my UWTI for a loss this week, but starting to scale in here. Am I nuts?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Dumped all my UWTI for a loss this week, but starting to scale in here. Am I nuts?

i want to see 42 oil. and re-buy a few energy shares for medium term hold.

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex


i want to see 42 oil. and re-buy a few energy shares for medium term hold.

For kicks, I'm going to call the bottom for the next couple months at 42.95.

Unless things get seriously real, then $38.40, but I just don't see that happening.


I'll try remember to come back and quote how wrong I was in a few weeks.

[KappaSigma]

Rolled the dice again. Put in what i thought was a stink hid at 6.81 baytex and was just filled.

[SilverRex]

so far gold is trying to reclose back above the trendline.

if gold can somehow find a way to break the top side of the channel (green circle) this would be an immense bullish signal. a false breakdown follow by breaking the trendline of the opposite side.

until then, gold remains bearish imo

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Rolled the dice again. Put in what i thought was a stink hid at 6.81 baytex and was just filled.

Dumped all by shares. 490 gain.

[Cooked Rice]

Originally posted by bspot
Dumped all my UWTI for a loss this week, but starting to scale in here. Am I nuts?

Holding onto mine over the weekend. Hoping to at least break even Monday, if not, I may dump them at a loss too.