Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Marsh]

Oil seems really wonky these last few days...Like it wants to move up, but basically all data and sentiment is for it to move down. Lets see how the next few days go.

SItting on cash atm..

[SilverRex]

gold's near term critical support is 1340. it tested this over night and must hold and begin to rise if this sector is ready to challenge new highs towards 1375-1430.

similarly miners also needs to move up now if yesterday's drop was a wave 2 correction. the entire mining complex is on the cusp of a major breakout towards 37-40 but it needs to hold above 30.64-30.95 follow by above 29.00 to maintain this bullish count in the short term.

was expecting oil to drop to at least 42, it sold down further to 41. I am now trading oil like 39 was the bottom. But I did post up a chart comparing a similar scenario whereby oil has a shot a creating an undercut low like it did back in Feb. driver behind this may be the general stock market is ready to move into a 5-10 day weakness that could potentially drag oil down.

a healthy scenario would be to see oil maintain above 39, yet move sideways as it forms a base. once the stock market bottoms and begins its next leg higher, everything will go up together.

[SilverRex]

for gold as you can see, inverted head and shoulder as well as cup and handle patterns are showing up. while patterns are never 100% accurate but it does give us some hints the consequence of an-upside break out above 1363 that could trigger a rapid surge towards 1430

[SilverRex]

the resistance for oil at 46 is very obvious. I think it is very possible regardless of direction oil will soon test this area. I do not believe it can break thru this on first try so I will set this area and take some profit off the table on initial test.

but before we talk about 46 oil will first have to close back and sustain above 42.

so long oil does not break below 39, I think energy stocks have completed wave 1 and in a wave 2 correction. the next thrust will be strong

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
[B

[/B]

this chart I posted a few days ago is so far looking pretty good

[SilverRex]

gold on the move...

if gold doesnt sustain any up move today could get negative quick.

moving up my stop loss on all Jnug positions

[bball2]

Still holding nugt and uwti :-D

[SilverRex]

if gold closes below 1346 I may sell half of my Jnug position. as that is the first sign that the latest rally begins to look corrective.

[Kloubek]

I just wanted to say, SilverRex, that I really appreciate you sharing your insights with us.

I've already stated my position in oil was long term, so I'm not really swayed either way. However, I believe this provides valuable insight for some of our forum folk. Obviously, they utilize the information at their own peril as they would with anything they find on the internet. But from what I can tell, your assessments have appeared to be more accurate than not, so particularly for green investors such as myself, seeing a strong opinion backed by the graphs really helps.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Kloubek
I just wanted to say, SilverRex, that I really appreciate you sharing your insights with us.

I've already stated my position in oil was long term, so I'm not really swayed either way. However, I believe this provides valuable insight for some of our forum folk. Obviously, they utilize the information at their own peril as they would with anything they find on the internet. But from what I can tell, your assessments have appeared to be more accurate than not, so particularly for green investors such as myself, seeing a strong opinion backed by the graphs really helps.

thanks for your kind words. I am glad things are moving more predictably than not. I hope the market continues to move favorably for all of our sake.

[secol]

yeah thanks for sharing. i'm starting to learn and get more understanding with how you are using technical analysis albeit at a beginners level

[Neil4Speed]

Same SilverRex, I have been following you for 5+ years now, really appreciate your insight. Thank you!

[bball2]

I do mostly fundamental analysis for my investments but always interesting to see some technical analysis behind the the trends. Another props to SilverRex

[SilverRex]

not sure who here is playing natgas, I havent not been following this much but have taken notice it's currently in a wave c down correction. looks good risk/reward wise.

opening a small position here to test waters for UGAZ @ 29.67

nat gas looks like a text book correctional wave 4.

cant rule out it can drop further. So I am keeping my initial position small

[bspot]

^Is there any CDN equivalent to UGAZ? I'm trying more and more to move to CDN ETFs expecting US $ weakness.

Considering HGU for the same reason, but not sure that's valid as it has US holdings as well.

[troyl]

^HNU is 2x levered on the CAN side.

[bball2]

Damn gold back down to 1347, going to exit a few of my leveraged positions and hopefully get a chance to buy in lower

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
Damn gold back down to 1347, going to exit a few of my leveraged positions and hopefully get a chance to buy in lower

I sliced my Jnug in half when gold closed below 1346. Looks like this sector isnt ready to breakout just yet. Most likely waiting for the stock market to top out first.

One area I am eyeing is the 50DMA for gold on the daily chart at 1320.

recalling gold is very much still can potentially move in the triangle pattern I first talked about. and 1320 happens to be near the bottom of the triangle as well as the 50DMA which it likes to retest every few months

[bspot]

Anyone still in for LABD? Interesting day, hoping for a decent close, ideally XBI < 62 and tomorrow to continue the down trend. Daily swings on LABU/LABD have gotten a lot smaller recently.

[94CoRd]

Originally posted by bspot
Anyone still in for LABD? Interesting day, hoping for a decent close, ideally XBI &lt; 62 and tomorrow to continue the down trend. Daily swings on LABU/LABD have gotten a lot smaller recently.

Got out of LABU at $40 yesterday. Only 8 shares bought at $26 - but you have to start somewhere

I'll be watching LABD to see if there's a good entry in the next few days.