Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, I agree. I actually got burned twice recently on setting stops too closely. Actually 3 times in fact. And lost money because of it. Basically in all cases the stock just barely hit my stop, and then rebounded. In all cases, those stocks are now well up over where I initially bought them, forget about where my stop was at.

Careful careful.

On the other hand, ensuring you have a stop is critical. I don't think I'm ever gonna buy another stock and not set one. Had I always been setting stops since I began trading, I'm sure I'd be down still, but no where near as much as I am.

[max_boost]

Looking at HOD specifically, every time it sets a new high, it pulls back an average of 25% before going even higher.

Case in point on HOD, check this:

Sept 2: $5.30
Sept 16: $7.33
Sept 23: $5.37

Oct 28: $13.25
Nov 4: $10.28

Nov 20: $20.50
Nov 28: $15.30

Dec 05: $25.00
Dec 15: $20.55

Dec 24: $31.36
Jan 06: $16.18

Jan 20: $29.75
Jan 26: $23.13

Feb 18: $47.19
Feb 25: $34.89



There you have it. This chart is scary, the numbers are scary. Anyone else catch it?

With the exception of the run from Dec 24 to Jan 06, HOD has pulled back by its average of 25% and in 1 week too which is the average length of an HOU/Oil rally.

Tomorrow we will find out. Next stop for HOD based on these numbers is back to $47.

ORLY?!

All I know is, oil better not rally forcing me to get stopped out and then pull a quick reversal. I absolutely fucking hate it when that happens.

[civic_rida]

i really hope your right lol.

[Generic]

Originally posted by civic_rida
i really hope your right lol.

x2

[Z_Fan]

Oil at $43.21 right now.

I think at close of the market, not NYMEX...it was $42.40.

So, that's bad for HOD!

Fawk.

[bigbadboss101]

Oil prices up 0.85 or so from close and gold is way down. Both bad for me.

[SilverRex]

^
ive said yesterday take your pick oil and market up and gold down or oil and market down gold up

however i am happy that gold is dipping, the more it dip the better but that could only mean the market is on a come back.

oil had a few key resistance one at 42.8 and one at 43.50, but I guess a few of us jumped the gun and went HOD when oil is at 42.8, and now that it is at 43.50 it will be interesting and the line has to hold here otherwise oil is bullish towards 50

there is a few things that it could play out, it could push for a false breakout then complete shit the bed and move lower is my hope. if it does break up then I have to get out and turn from short on rallies to buy on dips.

right now if market was to open it 43.50 oil is about 33.2 in HOD down about 3.5% if it crosses 44 oil i will get out. 43.50 is also the upper channel of 40.2 and 41.50, then 43.50.

gold resume its down trend yesterday after retesting its 50% retracement from the fall, it goto the low of 936, now first stage magic number is 930 so basically we are there. I do believe it should be volatile around this area because this is the breakout of the oct high and was a signal that caused gold to go from 930 to 1006. while my ideal target entry is around 900 and 875 I believe we will see some support around 930 first.

getting ready to buy more HGU if it dips into the 9s

[bigbadboss101]

Whoa, oil went from 0.85 up to about 0.17 for a while, but now it's at 1.32 up. Ouch for bears

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

Stopped out of HOD at open.

[civic_rida]

[Z_Fan]

Glad I bought some BAC at close.

Covers my loss on HOD.

Very surprised at oil price...it's gonna tank tomorrow or perhaps late today IMO. Up too much too fast...

[bigbadboss101]

At what point r u guys gonna sell BAC? It tends to pick up just before close.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
At what point r u guys gonna sell BAC? It tends to pick up just before close.

$20.00. Just like that guy says...the one who said $30 oil when it was in the hundreds...he says $20 BAC...so there you go.

[civic_rida]

when do you think one should get into hod.

[bigbadboss101]

We might see sub 30 HOD. When is safe to buy more who knows. I have 4 positions already.

[SilverRex]

Ok

market is going for a rally, but from everything that I read, it still calling for a lower low before a bigger advance

they are calling S&P to hit 600 and would that mean dow in the 6000? it is possbility.

but once do, the stock market will begin a multi month rally.

GOLD ALERT

weekly chart is forming a huge perfert reversal and 1006 happens to be the upper trend channel trendline, the bottom on the multi year channel low is situated at around 817 currently. It was also this line that gold bounced off 800 and began a huge rally.

if you zoom in we get alot of different supports drawn all over the place from 900, 870, 850 etc.

all I can say is, I dont think we will see a new gold high until the next major gold rally which wont begin until some in september/october. And gold will most likely consolidate and bottom out some where between 825-875 area from now until year end.

That is not to say it wont suddenly rally because if the market were to dive, gold will no doubt surge again.

I think we have enter a bear cycle for gold which means you will see alot off sell pressure on rallies all the way until year end. and logically speaking I'm putting out a target for a 50% retracement from the 618-1006 gold price and that is around 850.

so for gold bulls, get ready to load up gold, gold shares or what ever it may be when gold hits around that area. then hold it for 6-12 months.

[civic_rida]

i just picked up some hod at 30.89 call me an idiot please.

[Z_Fan]

Wow, 3 days ago if you would have told me $45 oil by the end of the week I would have thought you were a little crazy.

Very unpredictable I guess. Hmmm, I wonder if it will hit $50.

GTFO of HOD at $32.65 this morning is looking great now.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
i just picked up some hod at 30.89 call me an idiot please.

Idiot.