Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Zewind]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
how about UUU CCO UEX or HAT

UUU will be back to its $6 a share. Might not be a Short Term, but it will get there. Im sitting with some right now, was in before the Japan earthquake just made me buy more

[FlamingC19]

UEX looks pretty solid i'm already pretty heavily invested in UUU just looking to throw a little more cash into something.

[djayz]

PTU-X for uranium, lots of JVs with the big boys and drill results coming soon. Should be good.

[bitteeinbit]

Damn I was waiting for TCK.B to dip under 50$ to load up on it and it just shot up 7%+ today...

[Sugarphreak]

...

[bitteeinbit]

What do you guys think about oil prices? I don't know much about commodities and have never tried to predict future prices (I'm guilty of just following trends that make sense as they happen ex: silver going up). Hopefully this guy is right because I think in the long-run high oil prices will have a bad effect on just about everything. I guess it all depends on the Middle-East.

Oil's pricey, but maybe not for long


BY JAY BRYAN, THE GAZETTE APRIL 5, 2011


With the price of oil now hovering around $108 U.S. per barrel - its highest point in 2½ years - there's growing uncertainty about the possibility energy costs could weaken an economic outlook that recently became more encouraging. The betting, however, is still for a decline in the price of oil, which would take pressure off consumer spending and financial markets, helping sustain economic growth. The problem is that "when and how much is a huge geopolitical uncertainty," warns Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets. His shop now predicts that oil will average $97 this year and just $90 in 2012. That reflects an expectation for a decline in the huge risk premium that has driven up its price by about $25 a barrel since uprisings in the oil-rich Middle East and North Africa region began early this year.

A risk premium is financial speak for the uncertainty markets face when it's not clear if enough oil will be produced to meet all the world's needs. When uncertainty is high, or even perceived to be high, prices rise as buyers hedge against potential shortages. "Actually, there's enough oil in the market to meet everybody's needs for the time being," says Earl Sweet, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets who specializes in petroleum. Sweet's forecast, like Shenfeld's, is for oil to fall considerably from its current level. His best estimate it that it will average $95 both this year and next. But here's the rub, he explains: without some inkling whether the violence playing out from Libya to Yemen will cool off or expand into other countries, "anything could happen to prices." That's why he and Shenfeld both warn that the longer the political uncertainty drags on, the less positive they can be that prices will begin falling soon enough to validate their most recent forecasts.

Still, the odds seem to be on the side of moderation. Any time the price of oil rises above about $90, "the temptation to sell more is hard to resist" for any producer that has spare capacity, says Shenfeld. The extra profit is just too tempting. And unlike mid-2007, when oil briefly hit $147, there's no particular supply bottleneck these days. Saudi Arabia alone has a good deal of spare production capacity. "Sustaining oil at $108 would require continued disruption, along with more economic growth than we're likely to get," Shenfeld says. Indeed, there are other analysts who are even more optimistic about an easing in the price of oil. Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics, a British consulting firm, yesterday cited several reasons why oil would more likely fall than rise much farther. Its gains in the past few days, he said in a note to clients, "probably owe more to optimism about the global economy than to increased nervousness about developments in the Middle East." In other words, speculators are betting on a tighter market down the road being driven by demand, not disruption to supply. It's no coincidence, he pointed out, that prices took another jump after Friday brought the news of unexpected strength in U.S. employment growth, a key sign of sustainable improvement in the world's biggest economy (and biggest oil consumer).

Nevertheless, Jessop sees four reasons why the factors that have propelled oil higher will likely reverse. First, there's the simple fact that economic growth in some important parts of the global economy could easily be slowed if oil remains high. That would take the pressure off prices. Particularly vulnerable would be most of Europe, where sharp government spending cuts are already putting a damper on economies. As well, China, a very big oil consumer, is making strenuous efforts to slow its growth in order to rein in inflation. Second, he notes, the price of oil is already well above the $90 ceiling targeted by the OPEC countries, creating pressure for big producers like Saudi Arabia to safeguard their longer-term interests by avoiding too harsh a squeeze on consuming nations. Third, Jessop thinks that however the political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East plays out, "the worst fears of contagion to other major producers (from Algeria all the way to Saudi Arabia) have not been proved right." Thus he expects the risk premium to diminish. And finally, U.S. monetary policy is about to become less easy, putting less downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Since oil is priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger currency would imply less need to boost the price of oil to sustain the incomes of oil producers.

jbryan@ montrealgazette.com

© Copyright (c) The Montreal Gazette

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
What do you guys think about oil prices? I don't know much about commodities and have never tried to predict future prices (I'm guilty of just following trends that make sense as they happen ex: silver going up). Hopefully this guy is right because I think in the long-run high oil prices will have a bad effect on just about everything. I guess it all depends on the Middle-East.

high oil prices will cause alberta to repeat 2007 boom,

however cant rule out oil to hit a medium term high 112-126 then correct and remain around the 9x area for some time, technically it makes sense.

[DUBBED]

What do you guys think of EWJ? iShares Japan index.

Looks like a good entry point right now.

Edit: Just bought a small position, think there's some upside once the reactors calm down and the rebuild begins.

[bitteeinbit]

Hmmmm, so I got out of TGL this morning because I was starting to get a bad feeling about it (I know, I know, I let my emotions get a hold of me!). I made a small gain but now I'm wondering if pulling out now was the right decision as it looks like it's finally breaking out. I'll wait a day or two to confirm and if it really does I might jump back in.

(Notice high volume at the beginning of the pennant, then it declines and now volume is going back up it seems)


I'm also looking at Husky, wondering if it's currently in a 'cup and handle" formation. I think the cup is too small for it to count but since it's down today, I think I might enter before markets close. Might also be headed for a double-top. Hmmmm.




In other news, looks like CGX is finally breaking out Sugar! (though I'm sure you noticed before I did) The past 6 trading days as well as Stoch and Rsi seem to confirm it's going back up. Are you aiming for the previous high or up and beyond?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
What do you guys think about oil prices? I don't know much about commodities and have never tried to predict future prices (I'm guilty of just following trends that make sense as they happen ex: silver going up). Hopefully this guy is right because I think in the long-run high oil prices will have a bad effect on just about everything. I guess it all depends on the Middle-East.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energy...7340MU20110405

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices could rocket to $200- $300 a barrel if the world's top crude exporter Saudi Arabia is hit by serious political unrest, former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani told Reuters on Tuesday.

And now we know why the USA has 2 carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf.


Also, oil, as priced in Euros is almost at it's all time high. The WTI price is very misleading, despite the fact that oil is only 108$ gas is still over 4$/gallon in the US. It was up around 4.50$ when oil was well over that price in 2008. WTI is an old benchmark, light sweet blends are being sold for over $120 in the gulf.



Meanwhile, Iran just opened up the 3rd Phase of the Oil Bourse on Kish Island. This may also be why there are 2 carrier battle groups in the region.


Explanation about KIsh & Effects to USA:
http://whatreallyhappened.wikia.com/...ian_Oil_Bourse

[bitteeinbit]

Good reads, but still...

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Good reads, but still...

Check out this prediction someone made in 2010:



EDIT:
Heres that other chart... Courtesy of www.zerohedge.com



The actual pump price has followed the dotted or predicted line almost exactly.


Check the other preditcion on peak oil made here:

http://www.trendlines.ca/free/peakoil/contents.htm

[Hi-Psi]

My girlfriend is making a killing in GoldCorp (g.wt.g), it's up 37% today alone...

Of course I'm on the sidelines for that one too... Eff my life haha

[Feruk]

Anyone follow SLI? Thinking of taking a position in this one. They're waiting on government approval to start coring.

[s_havinga]

How low you guys think NG is going to go this time? I have a bunch of HND I bought a while back that I am at break even right now. Would you hold or gtfo?

[997TT]

added a position of GPR at $3.91 just now.

of course as i type this is it now 3.88...haha

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by s_havinga
How low you guys think NG is going to go this time? I have a bunch of HND I bought a while back that I am at break even right now. Would you hold or gtfo?

actually NG is in a correction that should not break below 3.74. once correction is done, next short term target is 4.80 and medium term to 6.00+

[cloud7]

wow CMM.V dropped quite a bit the last few days. What's the reason for it? Time to buy?

[DUBBED]

Originally posted by cloud7
wow CMM.V dropped quite a bit the last few days. What's the reason for it? Time to buy?

There was a news release posted on their website this morning.

[s_havinga]

Originally posted by SilverRex


actually NG is in a correction that should not break below 3.74. once correction is done, next short term target is 4.80 and medium term to 6.00+

That's why I was asking, I don't think this jump in HND is going to last long I am trying to gauge when to get out and switch to HNU.