Official Short-term Investments Thread

[997TT]

Mfkr ... i'm already down $4k on HNU.

SR you paint a pretty nasty picture .... gut check time as to whether i want to stomach a potential $8-$10k loss by holding.

[guessboi]

I still have a small position in HNU so I am going to ride it out. only lost 900ish at this moment. should have sold this for a smaller loss earlier.

[Dinan]

Damn, only a hurricane can save us now

[Super_Geo]

How is NG getting sold off so badly? 8 consecutive days of losses? I can't find another spot in the NG charts where the price drops for 8+ consecutive days... there must be a bounce of some sort coming up, even if it's just a dead cat bounce.

I got 1,000 shares of HNU at $3.35... going to watch this one closely, hopefully flip it for a quick couple hundred bucks. I have to say though, SR's charts scares the living shit out of me! I've set a tight stop in case it keeps bleeding down...

[SilverRex]

well if I had a choice I rather the world has recovered from the recession and on its way to new highs.

unforunately that would mean I have to forget everything I ever learn analyzing the market. so I dont know which is better.

But so far technically, the market is some what moving to our expecation doesnt it?



However to make it simple to understand. the recent rally in the dollar is only in a sub wave III of 1 up move. Meaning when the dollar begins a sub wave 1 of 3 up move that will be the longest and most painful to bare for all sectors.

so what does it mean? while I expect the dollar this week to advance further, once it finds a top, we should be met with a larger correction namely a wave 2 correction of the entre run up from the bottom of the dollar a week ago.

And it would be during this correction that I view the market namely DOW may regain its momentum and quite possibly make a move higher than 9422. it would be ideal that it puts in a divergence here for a final top.

Now depending on how much oil and gold and or NG will drop at its current pace. we should see a pretty strong rally but the rally should not take out the highs we established a week ago.

My gut feel is we could see some further nasty drop this week which would be in perfect harmony when the market makes a higher move and the rest of the sectors simply a retracement of the recent decline.

Remember in 2008 gold dipped hard in July, only the equities followed in september? I think if we are to see some substantial decline coming this winter, gold will lead us down first. so I anticipate gold to trip to low 900s and as the market rallies after this week, gold will simply just race itself back to 940-960 simply to retest the broken up trendline as I posted this morning.

I dont know where NG price will land, but I think new lows are coming. and it too will swing pretty hard once it hits a certain low. Therefore if NG was to suddenly swing 20-30 cent higher this week I think I will open a small short position.

[SilverRex]

here look at the US dollar chart, we are simply in a small wave 3 heading higher than the small wave 1 in blue. Once this entire up leg completes it will be a larger (wave I) and thre will be a wave (II) correction that should give the market a precieved strong rally, but the worse night mare will be when we begin wave (III) that would be the strongest of them all.

[SilverRex]

now the above chart is what I believe is going to happen, but I am no trading god and until the market proves me wrong, what I say by this is there can still be an alternate count, if dollar some hows come crashing down respringing the rally back to life in all sectors, then we have to look at two other possible scenarios, one is that the ABC correction was not finished, and the recent low for the dollar at 78.24 was merely an A, and price will want to come down and make a bit of a lower low to complete the correction, then finally embark on the real sub wave iii rally. This of course will just give us a fantastic opporunity to short everything once again.

but, the other path which I do not like to see but yet can always happen is if the dollar takes out 78.12, which will invalidate our entire count and that would mean the recent rise is only an ABC correction and the dollar hasnt quite bottomed yet. if this ever ahppens we will analyze it when it does, until then. I am sticking with the initial count that we are and should be headed further up from here.

[Dinan]

so are you going to get into HOU and HGU for the bounce up or just going to wait for a better shorting opportunity ?


so 69-70 oil is good short?

960 gold is good short?

[997TT]

HNU has fought gallantly back to $3.42.

Horay you pos stock.

Now, stop tanking 5% each day.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
HNU has fought gallantly back to $3.42.

Horay you pos stock.

Now, stop tanking 5% each day.

hahahah, did you buy any more?

[guessboi]

I regret not taking a position in HND 2 weeks ago.

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan



hahahah, did you buy any more?

No, while i am looking for an exit strategy and averaging down is an option, HNU has not shown that "averaging down" is effective as most of you beyonders have averaged down ...and ended up downright selling.

Its not like CNQ, TCK or some other stock that if you had to average down it has proven time and time again that it can support certain prices.

HNU is just straight south. Serves me right for buying a commodity that i was super bearish on ... just b/c i thought i could play it for a pop.

Hahaha ... lesson learnt the hard way.
Thank you investing gods.

[Dinan]

oh man, am i the only one still holding in the upper 5's

[997TT]

i think you, z_fan and me are the only ones left brotha.

haha....we're doomed.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
i think you, z_fan and me are the only ones left brotha.

haha....we're doomed.

hahah, well at least you don't have in the upper 5$ HNU ..... damn who knows when we see the 5's again!!!


was tempted to buy more today and try and get out, but i'll wait and see... this averaging down hasn't been working with HNU

[doudou]

Hi SilverRex,

I sold HOD at $12.02. When do you think I should buy again?

[Bisklimpkit]

Has anyone ever dabbled in HDU or HDD? I'm trying to figure out when a good time might be to get into HDU if the USD is supposed to be getting stronger.

[Z_Fan]

I am completely out of HNU now 997TT.

Last time I was down, I averaged down, bought more in the low 4's and it popped to $5.40...but I exited at $5.17 or something around there...

Then made the mistake of buying back. Averaged down once. Then bailed. Fuck HNU.

Overall I think I am close to break-even on HNU. Probably I am down a few hundred bucks. Haven't figured it out. Don't care. Fuck HNU.

[Dinan]

looks like i'm the only dumb ass holding...

[tylere]

Originally posted by Dinan
looks like i'm the only dumb ass holding...

Sadly I'm still holding the ball on this stupid thing.... My average is 4.94 so hoping for a little rebound so I can take a smaller loss