Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

US dollar

ever since it broke the head and shoulder neckline, the target of the 95-96 is fully underway. I was expecting a counter trend bounce but now dollar is much weaker than I first thought. which is fine, I wanted it to drop any ways to fuel goal.

the 200 EMA daily around 98.7 could offer initial support.

Gold

well what do you know, the breakout was real, despite a last minute sell off into the close on friday, it was really a quick shake out. it never broke the days low under 1240 to confirm the downtrend and my original bullish count remains intact.

now with dollar 200EMA just a little bit to go, I hope gold has enough momentum this week to at least make a new high above 1263.87, there is quite a significance in forming this new high due to the cycle counters. in order for gold to be in a new intermediate up trend with alot more upside to go, it needs to make a new high and not a lower high. so I will be watching the 1263 area

the 6.41 Jnug I repurchased last week was indeed a good position. with a big gap up this morning, if wave 3 is underway. these gap up needs to stay unfilled. The moment things look weak relative to gold's performance I may quickly exit all my leverage position. (considering miners have corrected enough in price but not in time so I will stay a bit cautious)

[SilverRex]

here is an alt count I have for gold. I am still leaning towards an uber bullish move for gold but miner needs to follow, gap up and remain up. wave 3 moves tends to leave gap behind.

if miner under performs, then I will begin to consider gold being in an extended 5th wave sequence which will soon still lead to a top follow by a big decline.

miners gdxj may look ok with an ABC correction but gdx still looks a bit short in time which is my concern.

[ickyflex]

Oil hovering around 47 again

[Vanish3d]

FCX taking a beating

[SilverRex]

jnug

if jnug breaks below 6.60 I am going to exit and just be content with a slight profit and wait for much lower prices.

fcx

looks like a final wave 3 of V of C underway. the lower low has been my alt count. final capitulation imo

[Disoblige]

Such a sad sight to see that gold is hitting 1260s and JNUG in the low 7s range.

[jacky4566]

No, what's sad to see is my MEG stock drop below 6 Im in it for the long game so I guess ill just twiddle my thumbs and wait for the summer oil hike.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Kloubek
So, on a total whim I cashed in all my shares of BNE to try to dump it into something to make me a quick 5%. (I use the term "cashed in" as light as possible, as we all know how oil has done lately).

I dropped the roughly 10g into GBR around 11am, when I saw it has a strong upward trend in the morning. I entered at $1.25, and it has already gained some 30% by that point.

Man, was that a good play. Spiked at $1.95, and I took 8g of it out at $1.85. (Almost sold at $1.92 but I got greedy.) I'm leaving 2g in there to see what happens next week - though it is more likely than not investors will realize this was a momentum increase as opposed to one based on fundamentals.

Still, 50% gain in one day ain't too bad. If I can do that one more time I'll actually be even in my stock market attempts.

Looks like you should've held more lol

[SilverRex]

setting a stop under Jnug at 6.75, not liking the action in the miners. and if miner is to pop it needs to make a move now.

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


Looks like you should've held more lol

Yes, apparently!

No, I don't want to advertise what I am doing with my stocks all the time. Fact is, I am way down overall so nobody should be taking my advice. I just got real lucky here.

I had 2g left, which I cashed in for another 75% gain today. (It was actually well over 100% but I had too many things to do at work before I had the opportunity to cash out.)

[bspot]

Oil is testing the crap out of the uptrend line. If there wasn't such good opportunity here, I'd likely cut loose my BTE and UWT positions, but instead I'll hope that the gasoline draws of the last couple reports are in fact showing future supply drawdown on the way:

[bspot]

Gold broke out over the first downtrend line I was watching, so after exiting JDST and waiting for a direction, I opened a position in JNUG at 6.87.

I'm hoping for a retest of this breakout to add more:

[SilverRex]

Stopped out of JUNG 6.75, goibg to wait for lower prices

[SilverRex]

with my stop being knocked out. miners are clearly corrective with the recent move up. I had my suspicion that the correction was too shallow and needed to correct further in time.

so the original idea of gdx making a 3 wave move down to the 22 area is back on the table. or has always been on the table.

wave (c) down is underway. will be looking to buy back as it gets into the 22s.

there is also a h&s which could also target under 22. I expect there will be a bounce when price hits the neckline then breaking down shortly after

[jacky4566]

EDIT: I am retarded and will go back to read investopedia.

[SilverRex]

fcx

fcx never confirmed the bottom by taking out 13.15, and so the count which one more lower low was possible. now that it has produced this low. the probability of a low is near. even if price was to break the low under 12, it should be very mild. we are either in a wave iv of v of (c) or v of v (c) finished and i of 5 being started.

strong Positive divergence has appeared. again, I am still leaning towards the 1-2, 1-2 setup with fcx hitting 20-24 in the coming months.

[bspot]

There goes GDXJ.

I'm out of JNUG for a loss, miners look like there is lots of downside if gold retests its breakout. I'll rejoin the party then.

[SilverRex]

fcx

fcx has overlapped its previous wave low and hence we now have two scenario unfolding. either the low is in, which then we should see another wave higher and perhaps even breaking out of the down neckline for 5 sub waves up, correct then launch

or we may have some sort of ending diagonal if price cannot breakout and forms wave b of a 5 pt descending wedge down that could still produce a slightly lower low.

either scenario is encouraging

confirmation still requires price to break above 13.14-13.15

[SilverRex]

gdx

well interesting development. while miner continues to under perform_a sign of weakness it is also made things alittle interesting by getting back above the neckline (orange)_

at this point I am still leaning towards a bearish sell off into the 21-22 area to complete wave (c).

yet one has to adjust if things change on a dime. considering this correction has met the minimum objective of correcting both in price (38% fib) as well as time. nothing says it cant suddenly breakout in a wave (3).

you can count 5 waves down from (b) so this is a possibility and we will know if and when gdx crosses above 23.17 to fully negate the bearish hand and shoulder.

all in all one cannot rule out the performance_of this sector of late is trying to deceive as many as possible and throw everyone off it's back even the most seasonal traders could be in for a surprise if the big movement is to the upside than the expected continuation of the correction or perhaps even a new low.

[SilverRex]

natgas

looks like it is in a wave 3 advance. as long as price does not close below 3