Would you fold pocket aces here??

[Schwa]

Double or nothing game, right on the bubble. Do you fold knowing theres two micro stacks waiting to die?

PokerStars Game #39307933213: Tournament #240067292, $5.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2010/02/06 0:57:02 MT [2010/02/06 2:57:02 ET]
Table '240067292 1' 10-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: KingMaddin1 (2315 in chips)
Seat 5: SxyB18C1 (6640 in chips)
Seat 6: simba300 (900 in chips)
Seat 8: sparkie256 (570 in chips)
Seat 9: zorkiii (2635 in chips)
Seat 10: White-Fire01 (1940 in chips)
KingMaddin1: posts the ante 30
SxyB18C1: posts the ante 30
simba300: posts the ante 30
sparkie256: posts the ante 30
zorkiii: posts the ante 30
White-Fire01: posts the ante 30
sparkie256: posts small blind 150
zorkiii: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SxyB18C1 [4c As]
White-Fire01: folds
KingMaddin1: folds
SxyB18C1: raises 6310 to 6610 and is all-in
simba300: folds
sparkie256: folds
zorkiii: calls 2305 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (4005) returned to SxyB18C1
*** FLOP *** [7c 6s 3c]
*** TURN *** [7c 6s 3c] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [7c 6s 3c Qh] [5d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
zorkiii: shows [Ad Ac] (a pair of Aces)
SxyB18C1: shows [4c As] (a straight, Three to Seven)
SxyB18C1 collected 5540 from pot

[RX_EVOLV]

why would anyone NOT call.... Pocket Ace and he knows for sure he is going heads up.....

I think the better question is why were you going all in with A4 off suit...

[Kobe]

Yes it should be a fold on a double or nothing with AA there....

And no I am not kidding... he pretty much has a win in his hand, he should not be calling there....

[UndrgroundRider]

.

[Kobe]

Originally posted by UndrgroundRider
A fold would only be acceptable if you were on the bubble, in a very large tournament with a huge field left.

In this situation he would have no choice. If he didn't go for it, the winner of the hand will have a chip lead over him somewhere between 4:1 to 5:1. You're playing to win the tournament, not just money. That requires well timed aggression.

Against any of the other players in the hand, at the very worst he is a 3:1 favourite. At best 10:1. I don't see how he can fold those odds.

He has table texture telling him to call, and odds telling him to call. This is a no brainer.

You must not know how a double or nothing works...

A double or nothing consists of 10 people, then 5 people get paid equal amounts of money...

EX: $10.50 buyin... and the top 5 get $20...

This is why it is a fold, he has the money guarenteed for the most part, he should be layin it down, and in a satty on the bubble as well he should be laying it down...

EDIT: In a huge tournment a fold would not be acceptable, and would be HORRIBLE...

At worst only a 3:1 favorite? How do you get this math, but at worst he is a 5:1 favorite...

[UndrgroundRider]

Originally posted by Kobe


You must not know how a double or nothing works...

A double or nothing consists of 10 people, then 5 people get paid equal amounts of money...

EX: $10.50 buyin... and the top 5 get $20...

This is why it is a fold, he has the money guarenteed for the most part, he should be layin it down, and in a satty on the bubble as well he should be laying it down...

You're too fast, I already edited my post but I guess you were typing. I just skimmed the post, my bad.

A fold is right here, if you analyse the table. It might be a different story if there weren't two short stacks.

[UndrgroundRider]

Originally posted by Kobe

EDIT: In a huge tournment a fold would not be acceptable, and would be HORRIBLE...

At worst only a 3:1 favorite? How do you get this math, but at worst he is a 5:1 favorite...

So you're saying if you were playing in the WSOP, medium stack, a larger stack goes all-in in front of you, you're on the bubble and dealt AA, you call? $0 if you lose, $20,000 if you win or fold and wait for someone else to go out. Over the course of a few days, folding one set of bullets isn't nearly as significant as folding a set of bullets in a small field.

And AA against suited connectors is about 3.5:1.

I get my math from an odds calculator. You should too. http://www.pokerlistings.com/online-...dds-calculator

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by UndrgroundRider


So you're saying if you were playing in the WSOP, medium stack, a larger stack goes all-in in front of you, you're on the bubble and dealt AA, you call? $0 if you lose, $20,000 if you win or fold and wait for someone else to go out. Over the course of a few days, folding one set of bullets isn't nearly as significant as folding a set of bullets in a small field.

And AA against suited connectors is about 3.5:1.

I get my math from an odds calculator. You should too. http://www.pokerlistings.com/online-...dds-calculator

If you can't afford to bubble a standard WSOP event then you shouldn't have even bought into the tournament -- why even enter the tournament if you can't afford to lose the buyin? You ALWAYS call with AA preflop no matter how many others are in the pot. You will always have the best odds of winning preflop with AA, no matter what hand you're up against (except the other two aces, which should be even, although this is exceptionally rare). The whole point of poker is proper decision making, and getting your money in when you're the statitical favourite to win is always the right thing to do (e.g. AA preflop) if we're dealing with a standard tournament / payout structure.

[gqmw]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre


If you can't afford to bubble a standard WSOP event then you shouldn't have even bought into the tournament -- why even enter the tournament if you can't afford to lose the buyin? You ALWAYS call with AA preflop no matter how many others are in the pot. You will always have the best odds of winning preflop with AA, no matter what hand you're up against (except the other two aces, which should be even, although this is exceptionally rare). The whole point of poker is proper decision making, and getting your money in when you're the statitical favourite to win is always the right thing to do (e.g. AA preflop) if we're dealing with a standard tournament / payout structure.

I have to agree with this post. You can't compare a double to a wsop event. In a double you can fold AA because with short stacks and everyone gets paid equally it doesn't really matter who gets the chips. Especially if you're 1 away.

In a standard tournament there's absolutely no way I'm folding AA preflop when I know I have the best starting hand in the game and I rather get my money in right away than seeing me put my money in when I'm behind. But I guess some people play to be 1st, others play to cash. Imo if you never take the risk of getting your aces cracked when you clearly have the best hand, you may cash, but you're never going to finish first. Works the same with every other aspect in life.

[cancer man]

Lets set up a night and go to the elbow river casino and start our own table..

[Kobe]

Originally posted by UndrgroundRider


So you're saying if you were playing in the WSOP, medium stack, a larger stack goes all-in in front of you, you're on the bubble and dealt AA, you call? $0 if you lose, $20,000 if you win or fold and wait for someone else to go out. Over the course of a few days, folding one set of bullets isn't nearly as significant as folding a set of bullets in a small field.

And AA against suited connectors is about 3.5:1.

I get my math from an odds calculator. You should too. http://www.pokerlistings.com/online-...dds-calculator

Not sure how you are still getting 3.5:1


Preflop the best that could get is 22.87 which is

some kind of suited connectors such at 98suited which AA is exactly 4.372:1

In other terms AA is going to win 76.83% of the time and lose 22.87% of the time

Now if you start using suited connectors like KQSuited with one of the suits being covered by an ace is drops to 16.21% to win..


If you wanted to be 3.5:1 the hand would have to be winning 28.57% of the time...

[theken]

No

[UndrgroundRider]

Originally posted by Kobe


Not sure how you are still getting 3.5:1


Preflop the best that could get is 22.87 which is

some kind of suited connectors such at 98suited which AA is exactly 4.372:1

In other terms AA is going to win 76.83% of the time and lose 22.87% of the time22

Now if you start using suited connectors like KQSuited with one of the suits being covered by an ace is drops to 16.21% to win..


If you wanted to be 3.5:1 the hand would have to be winning 28.57% of the time...

Wow. This is epic.

I've heard of people calculating odds like this, but I've never seen it. No wonder there is so much dead money at the tables. I'm going to give you some information that is going to save you so much money that I should be getting paid for it. Odds are a ratio of possible wins to possible losses (or vice versa, depending on how you say it). Odds however ARE NOT a ratio of wins to total number of outcomes (as you have been calculating it). That's called probability.

Odds are used almost universally in poker, because they're much more natural and easier to use in calculations. Your pot odds calculations must've been way off if you have been using the flawed math.


Anyway, here's the math in the simplest of terms:

AA vs 89s (using your numbers) is 76.83% vs 22.87%, so that's like saying for every 100 hands, AA will win 76.83 times and 98s will win 22.87 times, or in odds form:

76.83:22.87

To reduce this to a form we can understand, divide both sides by 22.87.

76.83/22.87 = 3.36

22.87/22.87=1

The reduced odds are 3.36:1.

[ClearBluewater]

Okay lets see, we got 33.3%... repeating of course chance of survival and I....

LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEROY JENKINS

[calgarys_finest]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre


The whole point of poker is proper decision making, and getting your money in when you're the statitical favourite to win is always the right thing to do (e.g. AA preflop) if we're dealing with a standard tournament / payout structure.

I disagree a little bit not only do you play the cards but you also need to play the people, situation and in this spot the consequence. I have folded AA before and i will again if it means making or not making money.