New Natural Gas Fired Power Plants coming online in 2024 - Guess the Electricity Pric

[ExtraSlow]

Broke this out to a separate thread so I could do a poll. Previous discussion in the Enmax Thread.

New Electricity generating capacity is coming online in 2024.
Currently AESO shows total generating capacity of ~11,000 MW. An additional 2700 MW is supposed to come online in 2924, which is made up of Suncor Cogen (800 MW), Cascade near Edson (900MW), Genesee 1 and 2 (830 MW), which have been offline after switching away from coal previously.

This is a big addition to the market, and pundits are predicting ~10c/ kw/h by summer. Our own @pheoxs said under 10c easily by spring.

So, how low can we go? I'm going to use the regulated rate, because it's an independently published number that is a monthly average.

What will be the July Regulated rate? Guess in the poll.

[ThePenIsMightier]

Based on the pressure I've seen from power companies to lock in rates, I'd be tempted to guess pretty low.
There's a theory that no one is better at predicting future energy prices than the companies who generate power.

[ExtraSlow]

Wild theory.

[Darkane]

It will be very low.

Mind you - the grid is experiencing troubles with all the wind when that ramps up. It’s become constipated, and some thermal operators become constrained.

[Tik-Tok]

9-11.4c, because it's what the market will bear, while consumers feel like its a discount compared to the last year or so.

[ExtraSlow]

There is some thought that since Suncor and Cascade are "independent", they won't have the same incentives for "economic withholding" to drive up the price. I don't know how everyone makes those decisions, so hard for me to comment if that theory is valid. Frankly be nice if there's less of that stuff.

Also, as always, I love anyone who burns methane. Anyone done the math on how much natural gas these projects will burn?

[16hypen3sp]

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Based on the pressure I've seen from power companies to lock in rates, I'd be tempted to guess pretty low.
There's a theory that no one is better at predicting future energy prices than the companies who generate power.

But you can just exit those "locked in" contracts whenever you want without penalty, usually with 30 days notice. Maybe they count on people not knowing that?

[haggis88]

11.5-13.9 because I think the consumer will be ripped off like everything else in Canada

Genessee 1 & 2 are still Coal fired and have been running...3 has been upgraded to dual fuel though, you can watch the AB grid at www.dispatcho.app/assets

Natty gas power all coming back online in Ontario too, we're heading to sites that haven't been running for like 3 years to do inspections and upgrades

USA putting big investment into it too, Tennessee and South Carolina

[ThePenIsMightier]

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But you can just exit those "locked in" contracts whenever you want without penalty, usually with 30 days notice. Maybe they count on people not knowing that?

Maybe?

[pheoxs]

Yeah Genesee are still running, March 16th is when the first unit goes down. Only a small bit of nameplate capacity will be gained from the switch over to a combined cycle.

Pricing in AB feels like whose line is it anyways were the prices are made up and nothing matters. When you look at pool prices they are often in the 3-4 cent per kWh range yet the 30day price average stays around 9 cents. There's also random power spikes where the price goes up 10x with nothing going online or offline. Then even with the monthly pool price being at 9 cents the RRO still ends up being 15 cents to charge customers even with all the extra fees we pay separately on top of that.

So I think new capacity will make little difference. We'll still be in the 12-14 cent range.

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There is some thought that since Suncor and Cascade are "independent", they won't have the same incentives for "economic withholding" to drive up the price. I don't know how everyone makes those decisions, so hard for me to comment if that theory is valid. Frankly be nice if there's less of that stuff.

Also, as always, I love anyone who burns methane. Anyone done the math on how much natural gas these projects will burn?

Cascade Power: The 900MW CCGT Plant in Alberta – EnergyRates.ca

This says they'll be 50+% efficiency. Whatever that translates into for gas usage.

[M.alex]

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It will be very low.

Mind you - the grid is experiencing troubles with all the wind when that ramps up. It’s become constipated, and some thermal operators become constrained.

No it won't go to 'very low' - Battle River, Keephills, Sundance go bye-bye, price stabilizes and gets donkey punched by higher carbon taxes and TIER HPB going down - so we're not at the historic levels we were pegging the last 24 months, but still above where the market has averaged since de-regulation (~$60/MWh)

[Darkane]

Alberta pricing is dictated by wind. We have 3.5GW of it.

[M.alex]

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Alberta pricing is dictated by wind. We have 3.5GW of it.

4.5 GW; growing to 5.5 GW by 2025 once Buffalo Plains, Halkirk 2 and Wildrose 2 come to play

[pheoxs]

I wonder how much wind power we could generate if we threw some along the mountain ranges

[Darkane]

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4.5 GW; growing to 5.5 GW by 2025 once Buffalo Plains, Halkirk 2 and Wildrose 2 come to play

Crazy.

Without looking too deep, We may be a global leader for market demand to renewables ratio. probably more than California.

I mean shit, there's a 1 GW solar farm being put up just west of Brooks. These things are yyyuge.

[ExtraSlow]

Plus the Newell garbage burning plant. So green

[Darell_n]

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Crazy.

Without looking too deep, We may be a global leader for market demand to renewables ratio. probably more than California.

I mean shit, there's a 1 GW solar farm being put up just west of Brooks. These things are yyyuge.

I don’t think that’s for public consumption, just for Amazon.

[M.alex]

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I don’t think that’s for public consumption, just for Amazon.

Amazon is not building a 1 GW BTF solar facility. They have 2x400 MW virtual deals (Travers and Buffalo Plains) and a few months ago permitted something like 20 MW of on-site gas-fired generators

[ExtraSlow]

I did a little math, and it may be suspect, but seems that 11,000 MW woukd be about 2 bcf/d if they were running flat out.



So, if/when these plants are blasting away, that's a meaningful amount of added natural gas demand, however, given they may average out to 30-50 percent usage, that moderates the situation.

Anywhoo, burn baby burn, methane inferno.

[pheoxs]

Anyone know when Cascade comes online? I thought they were supposed to be done and online by the end of 2023?