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Thread: 2012 Stock Picks Contest

  1. #81
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    Originally posted by troyl
    So you think because you chose to select futures as a couple of your picks you should be able to use leverage? How is that fair for any of the other picks? Sorry this is cash only no margin/leverage. You are short 1 barrel of Dec 2012 WTI and you are long 1 barrel of Dec 2013 WTI. No contracts, margin, leverage, or margin calls
    It's completely fair; in a sense you have allowed for leverage because penny stocks by intrinsic nature of their low valuation will move 10's and 100's of percent per day. Thats leveraging percentage moves. So if you allow that ridiculous risk apetite with no margin calls, why not mine? It's speaking the same language in a different dialect.

    According to CME Exchange I would, with 100k capital, be able to purchase 200 spread contracts according to their margin requirements (more actually, they post $250, I'm calculating with $500 just for reasonable sake). It's akin to buying 10,000,000 shares of a 0.10 stock using 100k bp (think elasticity of a stock... there's a reason Google doesnt move 20% every day).

    Why do you penalize me for utilizing the same free public information that nobody else chose to utilize?

    PS. Standard margin on stocks is 150%. If you want to recalculate. But it doesn't make a big difference to anyone else in the competition since everyone chose stocks.

    If you don't want to do it then say so. What I am proposing is not unreasonable, so like I said, I will post and calculate my own gains if you are unwilling.

    Put this formula in:

    (H57+H45)*(200*1000)/(100000) and convert to percent.

    Use this link for quotes

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...eet-crude.html

    According to the weekend quotes (which sometimes cannot be trusted) the spread is at -1.97 now, which puts me at 1.14 gain, which is 1.14 * 200 * 1000 / 100000 to percent = 228%

    *Edit. Or you can disqualify me from the contest and save frusturation.
    Last edited by themack89; 02-11-2012 at 03:10 PM.
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  2. #82
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    Yes I do realize that 1 contract is for 1,000 bbls of oil, but let me say this again. IT IS A CASH ONLY CONTEST.

    No use of margin. How would it be fair to let you use margin on your oil contracts and no one else? IE for the individual who chose a venture stock trading at 0.15, which would not be eligible for margin. This is why we chose CASH ONLY.

    "So if you allow that ridiculous risk apetite with no margin calls, why not mine?"

    Let me say it again, no one is getting margin calls because they paid CASH for the full transaction.

    Dont be frustrated because you are dead last. The year is young lots of time left.

    Every time I read one of your posts I think my blood pressure rises 10 fold.

    So again, here will be the math for the year on the your crude contracts:

    You are short Dec 2012 WTI at 101.97. You are long Dec 2013 WTI at 98.86.

    So on your Long Crude it will look like this:
    (END Price - Beg Price)/Beg Price.

    Sorry you think this contest is so shitty, but I think it is kinda fun to monitor everyone's picks over the course of the year.


    Again CASH TRANSACTIONS ONLY!!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. #83
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    Originally posted by troyl
    Every time I read one of your posts I think my blood pressure rises 10 fold.
    Everytime I read your posts I laugh. You are a funny guy troyl. Funny guy.

    The calculations you are doing are wrong. Plain and simple.

    Why you will use real world calculations for stocks, but not futures?

    Maybe the person who is in charge of hosting a contest based in reality should actually have some knowledge of how reality functions.

    Do you honestly think I would have picked this futures position if I knew you were going to butt rape the calculations? No. I made a terrible assumption thinking you knew how to properly value the securities. Sorry for raising such a commotion. lol

    Do you want me to take over the spreadsheet for you because you can't do it properly? If you let me do it, it would change the score sheet around quite a bit, and from an empirical glance rage2 would be in first place (just my best guess). If it makes you feel any better, it wouldn't vault me to the top (because the variance on a 12 month spread is pretty high), but if you switch to proper percent calculations it certainly would (as return on capital).

    Originally posted by troyl
    Sorry you think this contest is so shitty, but I think it is kinda fun to monitor everyone's picks over the course of the year.


    Again CASH TRANSACTIONS ONLY!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I do not think the contest is shitty... I just think you are running it in a way that a 4th grader would (akin to my dad could beat up your dad). I think it would be fun as well, but would be much funner if done properly.

    And PS... The way I was describing my position (if you even read and understood my posts), with 100k cash I could open that position (with room for drawdowns might I add).
    Last edited by themack89; 02-12-2012 at 02:25 PM.
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  4. #84
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    Here are the rules:
    1)Pick Three stocks
    2)No Warrants, options, or futures
    3)Must be traded on North American exchanges
    4)Physical commodities can be selected as well
    5)No duplicate picks if one member has selected a stock before you then move on to your next favorite

    I guess if you read the rules we wouldn't be having this little discussion now.

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    Please go ahead and make your own calculations for your your crude contracts. Just let me know your returns.

    On your Dec 2013 contracts you are up $0.56

    On your Short Dec 2012 contracts you are down $0.21

    Net 0.35 gain.

    0.35*200*1000/100000

    =70% woooo you are the winner! Way to go man!!!

    Am I doing your option calculation correct?

    (Current Price - Beg Price)/(Beg Price)

    Just let me know how else i can facilitate this contest for you.

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    Originally posted by troyl
    I guess if you read the rules we wouldn't be having this little discussion now.
    I guess if you read the rules I wouldn't be in this competition.

    I am getting a very angry and upset vibe from you troyl.

    If you want I can run sharpe ratios on the picks to see who is generating the highest returns relative to risk parameters. This would be a more accurate account of best performer in real world terms.
    Last edited by themack89; 02-12-2012 at 06:21 PM.
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    This is so hilarious. Seriously...if you're trying to get all strategic about this goofy competition then ask yourself, would you invest 100% of your portfolio in 3 picks on the same day? I for one was in a cash position on the day this competition started and would never have bought my 3 picks on Jan. 9th or whatever it was because their prices weren't good value on that day. For example, I could pick up RPT at $.065 or $0.07 in the weeks leading uo to the competition commencement but it was at $.09 when our picks were actually bought. So there is a 38% return that's not showing up in my portfolio. I'm waiting to buy at $.07 with real cash so there ya go.

    End of the day, this is just for fun. My cash portfolio does not have ownership of any of the 3 stocks I picked for this contest at the moment. Maybe next year we can find a site that allows you to paper-trade a portfolio for a year and run the competition that way if some people want to get overly complex about it.
    Last edited by davidI; 02-14-2012 at 03:35 AM.

  8. #88
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    Originally posted by themack89


    I guess if you read the rules I wouldn't be in this competition.

    I am getting a very angry and upset vibe from you troyl.

    If you want I can run sharpe ratios on the picks to see who is generating the highest returns relative to risk parameters. This would be a more accurate account of best performer in real world terms.
    It's cool that you are passionate about what you are taking in school, but you are taking this competition a little too seriously.

  9. #89
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    Originally posted by Euro_Trash

    It's cool that you are passionate about what you are taking in school, but you are taking this competition a little too seriously.
    I'm not taking this in school.

    I think my frustration is being mistaken as seriousness.. Take something you know a reasonable amount about and have a level of passion; say European Trash which is actually a delicacy. Imagine reading a publication on European Trash which is really really misleading and the comments about this publication go along the lines of "Oh wow! I didn't think European trash was equivelant to rat shit!!" and "I didn't know Europeans were so disgusting!" and "This is 100% truth!".

    If you tried to tell them the publication is wrong by explaining why, and they told you to fuck off, would you be frusturated? Yeah, you would be... You are passionate, you care about it, and due to this you would defend your position.

    Originally posted by davidI
    This is so hilarious. Seriously...if you're trying to get all strategic about this goofy competition then ask yourself, would you invest 100% of your portfolio in 3 picks on the same day? I for one was in a cash position on the day this competition started and would never have bought my 3 picks on Jan. 9th or whatever it was because their prices weren't good value on that day. For example, I could pick up RPT at $.065 or $0.07 in the weeks leading uo to the competition commencement but it was at $.09 when our picks were actually bought. So there is a 38% return that's not showing up in my portfolio. I'm waiting to buy at $.07 with real cash so there ya go.
    You raise a good point. This is how it should be done.
    Last edited by themack89; 02-14-2012 at 11:53 AM.
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  10. #90
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    lol, some of my stocks are up... some of them are down, I am averaging a whopping 0.000533% gain so far! lol

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    Originally posted by Sugarphreak
    lol, some of my stocks are up... some of them are down, I am averaging a whopping 0.000533% gain so far! lol
    RIM is negative
    Its not only about money. Its about freedom, friends and family too.

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    26.7% average so far in this competition for me.

    My real portfolio is up around 38% YTD, thanks to NML & TLM. Unfortunately still has a ways to go to make up for the beating I took last year...

  13. #93
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    i did list on here, but my URS is up 53%

  14. #94
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    Silver
    Gold
    Zinc
    Last edited by JDMsomething; 03-01-2012 at 02:44 AM.

  15. #95
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    are you buying silver or silver mining stocks. This is something I am watching closely, and have put a good chunk of change into silver mines and silver. If looking at mining company's, which ones?

  16. #96
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    I buy only physical, not much control over stocks. Obviously because there is 3 choices, I don't buy Zinc, but It is a good industrial metal to invest in.

  17. #97
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    Where are you buying physical metal or what through?
    Follow me on Instagram and Facebook!

  18. #98
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    Some good sites are:

    Bordergold.com or .ca they are out of Vancouver
    APMEX.com
    goldsilver.com (they are more expensive but have lots of good articles from time to time)

    And if I just buy under 100 oz at a time I will buy at a local shop.

  19. #99
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    update?
    Its not only about money. Its about freedom, friends and family too.

  20. #100
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    I am doing pretty decent so far... I really need to trust my instincts more, how is it I am doing so poorly in real life this year!?!?!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...1VmF2R2c#gid=0

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