Tesla Motors

[Sugarphreak]

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[supe]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


I can give you 3 reasons:

3) It will be a 70K eco-box when it finally hits the market
2) It won't actually be launched on time, it will be horribly late and in limited supply, like all Tesla's
1) Most important, it currently doesn't exist

And a bonus reason: Elon is a giant douchebag and the public is starting to finally realize it.


GM is going to roll over Tesla IMO

LOL are you upset about something?

[Sugarphreak]

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[VWEvo]

Originally posted by supe
I'll agree that timing has never been a strong point of Tesla, so what, the automotive industry moves slower than tortoise speed, look how long Porsches Tesla fighter will take to hit the road (also note how its referred to as the Tesla fighter).

But you're right the GF is there to make batteries cheaply, and probably a heck of a lot cheaper than what the competition will be sourcing their batteries for. As for scaling, its R&D. It takes time to design the car and to design and build the equipment to make the car.

I actually admire GM for creating a respectable EV. I'm just saying, given Tesla's track record of creating exceptional cars, I have a strong suspicion that the Model 3 will be hands down miles ahead of the Bolt.

Why do I think the Model 3 will be a success? Because the Model S has completely dominated in its class, in this case class being defined as similar priced 4 door sedans. From the earnings report, and note the decline for every other company:



I just haven't seen a compelling reason why the Model 3 won't do well.

One of my best friends owns a 90D and is the biggest Tesla fan boy. I noticed that your posts and his posts on our Whatsapp discussion group are almost identical. I guess its safe to assume all Tesla lovers hang out on the same forum and use the same arguments. Its like a propaganda army, lol.

[rage2]

Originally posted by supe
I'll agree that timing has never been a strong point of Tesla, so what, the automotive industry moves slower than tortoise speed

I think you're underestimating the automotive industry. Tesla announced the Model 3 way back in 2014, scheduled unveiling in 2016, with deliveries in 2018. The Bolt (I have to go by months here because it was so quick) was unveiled in prototype form in January 2015, green lit for production in February 2015, with a production model unveiled in January 2016, with deliveries by December 2016. Doesn't look like tortoise speed to me.

Originally posted by supe
I actually admire GM for creating a respectable EV. I'm just saying, given Tesla's track record of creating exceptional cars, I have a strong suspicion that the Model 3 will be hands down miles ahead of the Bolt.

So you're comparing a car that exists today to a car that's vapourware and concluded that it'll be miles ahead. OK then.

Originally posted by supe
Why do I think the Model 3 will be a success? Because the Model S has completely dominated in its class, in this case class being defined as similar priced 4 door sedans. From the earnings report, and note the decline for every other company:



I just haven't seen a compelling reason why the Model 3 won't do well.

Aside from price, there is nothing in common with those cars. Try comparing to the real competition, 5 series BMW, E class Mercedes. I mean if you go and cherry pick cars for comparison that aren't in the same segment, you might as well say that Tesla destroyed the McLaren P1, La Ferrari or Porsche 918.

Originally posted by supe
But you're right the GF is there to make batteries cheaply, and probably a heck of a lot cheaper than what the competition will be sourcing their batteries for.

About 30% cheaper to be exact, but there are rough times ahead for the gigafactory as I mentioned above with the lithium sourcing issues.

Originally posted by supe
As for scaling, its R&D. It takes time to design the car and to design and build the equipment to make the car.

But I thought Tesla was super fast paced compared to the tortoise pace of the traditional auto industry...

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by supe
I just haven't seen a compelling reason why the Model 3 won't do well.

Only if Model 3 is a Models S for $35K.

So far Tesla's delivery from concept to customers' hands is around 3 years. Applying the same concept and give Tesla another year of improvement, you are looking 2018 before you will ever see a 3.

By then, Chevy Bolt will already into mid model cycle refresh.

Need I remind you that Bolt is a 200 mile car available late this year for $40K. And the only reason Tesla say they can do it for $35K is probably because Fed credit are winding down so they need to make themselves look better at least on price.

Now I won't discount the Tesla brand factoring in. The got the Apple thing going for them.

Tesla didn't have R&D partners on battery and I have seen nothing from them of what next gen battery tech. Gigafactory is all about building last gen batteries whenever they can get it going.

BTW, I love electric cars. Chevy Volt was on my short list of daily drivers. Unfortunately, lease residual on them are just plain awful.

[JRSC00LUDE]

I've been laughing at the whole Tesla thing since day one and it continues to be a joke. A joke that many people have gotten rich off so that part's good I guess!

One day there'll be a documentary, "When arrogance tried to build a car company. No wait, a battery company.".

[ickyflex]

I think Tesla is just going to pave the way for other cars to succeed.

Love the company and product, just don't think the execution has ever been there to be a successful company.

They have a huge fanboy club though, so for sure the 3 will make some decent sales I presume.

[killramos]

Personally I think the company is destined for 2 things.

1 The battery factory will get spun off, potentially as a group effort for a bunch of other auto makers to share an interest in an arms length production facility that will supply them all.

2. Someone, likely a domestic, is going to swallow them up and "tesla" will become an electric trim line for their cars. Something like a Ford Focus Tesla or Lincoln Navigator Tesla. This will happen after they continually miss earnings once they are no longer the only player in the game. In this sense someone will buy up their debt for the brand and perhaps some technical talent.

In any case Musk is gone.

In terms of investing in tesla. Will their buy out price and spin off earnings be enough to justify the current stock price.? Considering their current stock price is shored up by people who think tesla is going to rule the world I think it's unlikely that a long term investment in Tesla pays dividends.

[Mibz]

Originally posted by killramos
2. Someone, likely a domestic, is going to swallow them up and "tesla" will become an electric trim line for their cars. Something like a Ford Focus Tesla or Lincoln Navigator Tesla.

This is a really interesting thought.

[rage2]

I don't see the gigafactory being spun off. Panasonic owns 1/2 the gigafactory even though all we hear is that it's Teslas.

[suntan]

Tesla's market cap is $22 billion, it would be a miracle if Ford ($44b) could take them over.

[Mibz]

Originally posted by suntan
Tesla's market cap is $22 billion

$19.77B at the moment. 2 months ago it was $31B.

But nobody's saying they'll be bought out soon anyway.

[killramos]

Teslas market cap is based on rainbows and pixie dust. Even after its heavy degradation in the last 12 months.

If they consistently miss financial targets they will lose market cap and will become a target. They aren't immune from banks any more than an oil company is.

I think the factory is asset that has a lot going for them right now. Which is why I think they will be inclined to sell interest in it after the model 3 flops (relative term) into to pull all their eggs into model 5 or whatever.

When 5 flops (hypothetical) that's when I see the whole thing getting absorbed.

Didn't know about Panasonic, I still think that the gigafactory concept only works if everyone uses it. And the most efficient way for that to happen is if a cartel of auto manufacturers buy into it and all source their batteries from it. Gigafactory only works on a mass scale. And for mass scale they need everyone to be sourcing from it.

25,000 batteries a year will not make the gigafactory economic.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by killramos
25,000 batteries a year will not make the gigafactory economic.

I think that's why they have that home battery system to hedge against car volume failure.

But right now, sounds like having enough raw material is the problem. Not demand.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a924a64-9...#axzz3zzmNAAcm

I wonder if we have any lithium in Alberta. This article make it sounds like it's the next gold rush.

[suntan]

Lithium is everywhere - it's atomic #3!

Anyhow their home battery system is nothing special - it's subject to all the problems of Lithium-ion batteries. Physics is a bitch.

[yellowGTS]

Originally posted by rage2

I think you're underestimating the automotive industry. Tesla announced the Model 3 way back in 2014, scheduled unveiling in 2016, with deliveries in 2018. The Bolt (I have to go by months here because it was so quick) was unveiled in prototype form in January 2015, green lit for production in February 2015, with a production model unveiled in January 2016, with deliveries by December 2016. Doesn't look like tortoise speed to me.


So you're comparing a car that exists today to a car that's vapourware and concluded that it'll be miles ahead. OK then.


Aside from price, there is nothing in common with those cars. Try comparing to the real competition, 5 series BMW, E class Mercedes. I mean if you go and cherry pick cars for comparison that aren't in the same segment, you might as well say that Tesla destroyed the McLaren P1, La Ferrari or Porsche 918.


About 30% cheaper to be exact, but there are rough times ahead for the gigafactory as I mentioned above with the lithium sourcing issues.


But I thought Tesla was super fast paced compared to the tortoise pace of the traditional auto industry...

As with any automotive manufacturing, there is a delay from concept phase to actual production, to first deliveries.

BMW is a great example. The new X5 was released in 2014, but they have already started work on prototypes for the next generation. This coming from a company who typically runs a 7 year life cycle, I don't see why there is so much hate for the Model 3.

The only difference between a major company like GM or BMW and Tesla is the way in which they release new models. Tesla needs the publicity and will do whatever it can to keep eyes on them as a growing company, while GM can produce a new model in secrecy for years.

[supe]

Model 3 orders at 180,000 in 24 hours. Selling price w avg option mix prob $42k, so ~$7.5B in a day. Future of electric cars looking bright!

[Sugarphreak]

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[suntan]

Revenue, earnings, they're all the same thing.