Tesla Motors

[supe]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Not really... they are running their multi-billion dollar business like a kickstarter startup

Also... didn't they just take 1000$ deposits. they would actually have to deliver cars to earn 7.5b. That is going to take them 5 years and 10 billion dollars to do

And the problem with the kickstarter like plan is?? The way I see it they just got a 180M interest free loan.

But more importantly thats 180k people who put up real money to support Tesla. So you can hate from the sidelines all you want.

The thought that blows my mind is that they got all these reservations without a drop of advertising.

[supe]

This picture here sums up what Tesla is to the car world as what another company did to their industry.

https://twitter.com/chris75sf/status/715478332695928832

[rage2]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Also... didn't they just take 1000$ deposits. they would actually have to deliver cars to earn 7.5b. That is going to take them 5 years and 10 billion dollars to do

Unless they can figure out how to scale effectively. Maybe they have figured it out and keeping it on the downlow haha.

Originally posted by supe
This picture here sums up what Tesla is to the car world as what another company did to their industry.

https://twitter.com/chris75sf/status/715478332695928832

The difference is that every person in line at Apple nets Apple a profit, where as every person in line at Tesla nets Tesla a loss.

[suntan]

Originally posted by supe
This picture here sums up what Tesla is to the car world as what another company did to their industry.

https://twitter.com/chris75sf/status/715478332695928832

So Tesla's going be in the shitter for about 15 years before they come out with a flying car or something?

[supe]

Originally posted by rage2


The difference is that every person in line at Apple nets Apple a profit, where as every person in line at Tesla nets Tesla a loss.

Flawed logic.

Tesla makes money/car sold with healthy margins. The only reason why they lose money is because they are in a growth phase. Example, doubling the number of superchargers by the end of next year. These kinds of expenses will only drive more customers.

Regarding those superchargers, mark my word, another car company will sign onto the SC network which will justify and validate its model.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[suntan]

Originally posted by supe


Flawed logic.

Tesla makes money/car sold with healthy margins. The only reason why they lose money is because they are in a growth phase. Example, doubling the number of superchargers by the end of next year. These kinds of expenses will only drive more customers.

Holy shit, that's so fucking wrong, you make ZenOps look sane.

[ickyflex]

Biggest Tesla Bandwagon Jumper ever holy lol.

Like are people not allowed to appreciate the company but understand it's flaws.

[killramos]

lol is this the first time you guys have experienced supe?

So bud how many model 3's did you pre order? You must have deluded yourself into thinking they are going to be appreciating collectors items by now haven't you?

[rage2]

So let's take a look at scaling up again. Tesla needs to sell 500,000 cars a year to become profitable. Today, Tesla is putting out 50k cars a year, and they claim that it's not limited by demand. It's also not limited by battery inventory, as Panasonic has stated that's not the limiting factor. So if we assume that Tesla is lying and there's not more than 50k demand, they can have the factory churn out more than 50k vehicles.

A little history on the Tesla factory. This was originally a manufacturing plant owned by GM and Toyota, aka NUMMI plant. When that partnership ended, they sold it off cheap to Tesla. At it's peak prior to shutdown, it was producing roughly 300k vehicles per year, and that's purely manufacturing/assembly. The Tesla factory as it sits today not only manufacturer vehicles, but manufacturers key components such as battery, motors, as well as house most of their staff.

Batteries, that's easy, that's moving away to the gigafactory. Motor assembly and staffing, let's assume they move it to an offsite location and not a factor. Let's also assume that manufacturing a Tesla is as easy as a Corolla (it's not if you've ever seen the process. Check it out here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_lfxPI5ObM ). Even with all these assumptions, you're looking at a shortfall of 200k cars.

So supe, can you answer me this, how is Tesla going to ramp up manufacturing targets to actually produce 500k cars per year to hit their break even point?

[supe]

Originally posted by rage2
So let's take a look at scaling up again. Tesla needs to sell 500,000 cars a year to become profitable. Today, Tesla is putting out 50k cars a year, and they claim that it's not limited by demand. It's also not limited by battery inventory, as Panasonic has stated that's not the limiting factor. So if we assume that Tesla is lying and there's not more than 50k demand, they can have the factory churn out more than 50k vehicles.

A little history on the Tesla factory. This was originally a manufacturing plant owned by GM and Toyota, aka NUMMI plant. When that partnership ended, they sold it off cheap to Tesla. At it's peak prior to shutdown, it was producing roughly 300k vehicles per year, and that's purely manufacturing/assembly. The Tesla factory as it sits today not only manufacturer vehicles, but manufacturers key components such as battery, motors, as well as house most of their staff.

Batteries, that's easy, that's moving away to the gigafactory. Motor assembly and staffing, let's assume they move it to an offsite location and not a factor. Let's also assume that manufacturing a Tesla is as easy as a Corolla (it's not if you've ever seen the process. Check it out here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_lfxPI5ObM ). Even with all these assumptions, you're looking at a shortfall of 200k cars.

So supe, can you answer me this, how is Tesla going to ramp up manufacturing targets to actually produce 500k cars per year to hit their break even point?

First of all where are you getting the fact that it needs to make 500k cars to make a profit. I bet you in the next few quarters we will see tesla make a profit. I think the wording is more like, tesla needs to make 500k cars a year to justify its current valuation.

Second check your stats. The factory is capable of producing 500k cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fremont_Assembly

Daily total: 1,072 vehicles

So to answer your question, Tesla needs to finalize the design for the Model 3, finish production of the gigafactory then finish the assembly lines at the Tesla Factory.

I love history lessons.

[rage2]

Originally posted by supe
First of all where are you getting the fact that it needs to make 500k cars to make a profit. I bet you in the next few quarters we will see tesla make a profit. I think the wording is more like, tesla needs to make 500k cars a year to justify its current valuation.

Second check your stats. The factory is capable of producing 500k cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fremont_Assembly

Daily total: 1,072 vehicles

So to answer your question, Tesla needs to finalize the design for the Model 3, finish production of the gigafactory then finish the assembly lines at the Tesla Factory.

I love history lessons.

Your messiah told me that number.

http://www.inc.com/associated-press/...t-in-2020.html

Also, your marth is strong. 1072 * 365 = 391,280. Let's assume 400k AT BEST, still a 100k shortfall.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by killramos
lol is this the first time you guys have experienced supe?

So bud how many model 3's did you pre order? You must have deluded yourself into thinking they are going to be appreciating collectors items by now haven't you?

I mean I know a lead engineer of design at Tesla, and not even he is that naive about the challenges the company faces

[killramos]

Originally posted by supe

Second check your stats. The factory is capable of producing 500k cars.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fremont_Assembly

Daily total: 1,072 vehicles

As per usual Supe's own link's screwing him in the buthole

"Partially demolished (south end and water tower), the remaining plant was refurbished as the NUMMI joint-venture with Toyota and later became the Tesla Factory, Tesla Motors' automobile plant."

The plant you quoted no longer exists as it was partially demolished.

The real plant, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI, could only ever produce 312,000 a year.

Read a book.

[supe]

Ok but rage's 500k number is also BS. No one ever said they need to make this number of cars to be profitable. So the whole premise of his argument is flawed.

Remember if Tesla cut expenses on things like R&D and things like the SC's they would be profitable today.

[killramos]

Originally posted by supe
Ok but rage's 500k number is also BS. No one ever said they need to make this number of cars to be profitable. So the whole premise of his argument is flawed.

Um Elon did

CEO Elon Musk, speaking Tuesday at an automotive conference, said Tesla needs to show a profit, and will when it's selling 500,000 cars per year. He predicted that sales milestone will be reached in 2020, when its lower-cost car--the Model 3--is in full production.

Did you even look at the link Rage posted?

wtf is wrong with you

[rage2]

Originally posted by supe
Ok but rage's 500k number is also BS. No one ever said they need to make this number of cars to be profitable. So the whole premise of his argument is flawed.

I'll quote it just because...

[supe]

Tesla expects to become profitable in 2016, shares rise

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/2/10/Tes...erly-loss.aspx

[Sugarphreak]

....

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by supe
Tesla expects to become profitable in 2016, shares rise

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/2/10/Tes...erly-loss.aspx

While I believe in Tesla, Model 3 has to be out by fall of 2017 or Tesla will be out of cash again. Their burn rate is accelerating.

The other issue is EV subsidy is ending for a lot of jurisdictions. So I expect 1/4 to 1/3 of pre-order will drop if they don't release it by fall 2017.

Tesla will build 80-90k (S and X) in 2016. Say they got the process down and able to double the output to 200K per year, they only leave about 110K for Model 3, more if 3 eat into the more profitable S and X sales.

So their factory need to double output every 18 months to meet the 500K by 2020 figure. Tall order.

Also don't forget that the are pressure from both end for Tesla from real car manufacturers. Bolt and Leaf will come from the low end and Porsche and other Germans will start to look serious in 5 years time.

So far Tesla has spent all the cash to get things running while real car manufacturers are spending on R&D. Tesla has not been looking at what's next because they are preoccupied with what they got which is a 10 year old tech at this point.