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  1. #2921
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    No, I haven't.. But I have this crazy premise. If someone says they are going to do a bunch of great things and then fail to deliver on all of them I tend to not believe anything they say.

  2. #2922
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    And I want to hear your thoughts too, @ExtraSlow . Rather than brigading every Tesla thread, let's hear your analysis.
    I talk too much in every thread. I haven't done any detailed analysis of their financial reports or their business plan. Also have never, and don't know how to, short stocks.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tik-Tok View Post
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    I'd be lying if I said I didn't disagree.
    Quote Originally Posted by suntan View Post
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    His name isn't NICEramos.

  3. #2923
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirtsniffer View Post
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    No, I haven't.. But I have this crazy premise. If someone says they are going to do a bunch of great things and then fail to deliver on all of them I tend to not believe anything they say.
    I wouldn't say that they failed to deliver all of them. FSD yes. I'm very optimistic about this year. Model 3, Shanghai, Berlin, Austin, etc. I'm fine with. I'm excited about 4680 cells, Semi/Cybertruck this year, Model Y in Shanghai (and maybe Berlin). Their inventory is about 1/3, 1/4, of traditional manufacturers. Sensitivity to silicon shortage this year is lower than others because they produce their own. Automotive gross margin was 24% in Q4 despite several one time only charges that they addressed in the call. They are at approximately 20% automotive gross margins for Y2020 without the regulatory credits that you guys keep harping about. FCF was $1.8B in Q4, with $19B of cash on hand. Costs are going to be further reduced as they move to further casting, and 4680 cell manufacturing. Call me a fanboi, but I know my shit.

    The difference between several of you and myself is that I have skin in the game, whereas you're just hecklers with nothing better to do than hate on a company that you may not fully understand. I have put hundreds of hours of research into this company and am willing to put my life savings on the line.

    Here's let's leave it at this because this will get senselessly heated. I currently have long positions on this company. I have held long positions for some time, closed out almost all of my positions last week due to market instability, and reopened a bunch this morning. We can check back in a year or two. Deal? Probability is on your side as you guys deemed this to be overvalued many multiples ago.
    Last edited by The_Rural_Juror; 02-01-2021 at 10:57 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

  4. #2924
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    The difference between several of you and myself is that I have skin in the game, whereas you're just hecklers.
    Accurate, I have no skin in the game for this conversation, and I am just heckling.

    And to be clear, I want Tesla to be a successful company. I want them to do well. I've said as much, although probably not as loudly as I have heckled. Furthermore, So far my predictions have been mostly proven wrong, I'm not looking like a particularly credible voice on this topic based on my track record of failed predictions.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tik-Tok View Post
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    I'd be lying if I said I didn't disagree.
    Quote Originally Posted by suntan View Post
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    His name isn't NICEramos.

  5. #2925
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    Accurate, I have no skin in the game for this conversation, and I am just heckling.

    And to be clear, I want Tesla to be a successful company. I want them to do well. I've said as much, although probably not as loudly as I have heckled. Furthermore, So far my predictions have been mostly proven wrong, I'm not looking like a particularly credible voice on this topic based on my track record of failed predictions.
    No you don't want them to succeed. Don't dress this up. You brigade every Tesla topic with useless shit taking momentum away from any useful discussion. Wonder why the Tesla fan bois haven't posted in a while? I have made a shit ton of money on Tesla and I have donated a shit ton of money to charities because of that. Bring some fundamental analysis into discussions. You are known for that, right?
    Last edited by The_Rural_Juror; 02-01-2021 at 11:02 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

  6. #2926
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    You are more fun when you meme STNK LOL

    I havenít dug into them since mid 2018, when my assessment was if you took every one of their assumptions at face value and juiced all their operating metrics their then $52B valuation was still pretty stretchy even with flat forward 25% GM (which they had never achieved) and required essentially perpetual growth in the order of 10% a year for any semlence of math to go around.

    I didnít believe their valuation then and I donít believe it now. But in any case I donít stnk, and I certainly donít stnk in companies with Teslaís level of irrationality. I can live with leaving money on the table staying out of that game.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

  7. #2927
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    This has nothing to do with "stonking" or not "stonking. This is about conviction in your beliefs, making money, and investing in a company that makes useful shit more affordable for regular people.
    Last edited by The_Rural_Juror; 02-01-2021 at 11:08 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

  8. #2928
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    I've been told. I will stay out of it as much as I can, although you all know I'm bad at that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tik-Tok View Post
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    I'd be lying if I said I didn't disagree.
    Quote Originally Posted by suntan View Post
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    His name isn't NICEramos.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ExtraSlow View Post
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    I've been told. I will stay out of it as much as I can, although you all know I'm bad at that.
    Stay in, be open minded, and bring an opposing thesis if there is disagreement. Be inclusive. Making fun of successful people simply makes you look foolish.

    Go look at their FSD beta drivers on youtube. This iteration is pretty good. They will have double the manufacturing capacity (1MM) by the end of next year, and possibly 2MM in 2022. Berlin is almost on pace with Shanghai. Entry into India in a few months.

    Betting on a company that makes useful shit, is going to make the world better for our kids, and has a side effect of making me money? I'm all for it.

    Here's John Kerry on the climate narrative.

    Last edited by The_Rural_Juror; 02-01-2021 at 11:17 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

  10. #2930
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    @The_Rural_Juror is my fave Beyonder

    Free Ginger Beef for you for life at PK PK lol

  11. #2931
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Rural_Juror View Post
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    We can check back in a year or two. Deal?
    Pretty much this lol only thing that matters are the results. You'll notice a bunch of Beyonders have disappeared through the years lol probably can't face the music.

  12. #2932
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    From ARK Invest this morning.

    Sam and Tasha Share Takeaways from Tesla’s Earnings Call
    By Sam Korus & Tasha Keeney | @skorusARK & @TashaARK
    Analysts
    On its earnings call, Tesla highlighted battery cells as the biggest constraint to scaling electric vehicle production. In 2022, Tesla itself plans to produce 100 gigawatt-hours of batteries, enough to supply an incremental 1.3 million vehicles relative to the 500,000 it produced last year. Panasonic, CATL, LG Chem, and other cell manufacturers also plan to scale battery output during the next two years.

    Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp provides some clues to its plans to scale battery production. After troubleshooting the process in one factory, we believe Tesla should be able to “copy and paste” in similar factories around the world much more rapidly than expected.

    During its fourth quarter call, we also learned that only 1-2% of customers in China are opting for Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) package, a “much lower [percentage than in] the rest of world”. At some point, we believe Tesla could offer FSD subscriptions in China, begging the question of its competitive position in a country likely to favor domestic service providers.

    Chinese companies have been investing significantly in autonomous driving capabilities during the last few years. Recently, Xpeng rolled out autonomous highway driving features that included entering and exiting highways, a feature that Tesla introduced in 2018 with hundreds of thousands of customer cars generating data to train the neural networks behind new Autopilot features. In comparison, Xpeng is relying on data from only tens of thousands of vehicles. That said, some online videos claim that Tesla’s autonomous features are inferior to those of Chinese companies. If accurate, the reason could be that Tesla’s installed base and data collection have been centered in North America. Nonetheless, as of 2020, Tesla is the leading electric vehicle brand in China and, as a result, could improve its autonomous capabilities at a faster rate than its competitors.

    Given pricing dynamics for autonomous ride-hailing in developed compared to developing countries, perfecting FSD in the US first makes strategic sense. In ARK’s published price target for 2024 (soon to be updated for 2025), we assumed that if Tesla were to launch autonomous ride-hailing in China, its take-rate could be significantly lower than that in the US, especially if it were forced to share the economics with Chinese partners. In our recent Big Ideas Report, we illustrated that the developed world could respond to autonomous ride-hailing more dramatically than developing countries because human driven ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft are much more expensive in countries like the US than are those in China. According to ARK’s research, at maturity and scale, an autonomous taxi could price at 25 cents per mile, roughly half the cost of ride-hailing today in China but one eighth that in the US.

    ARK estimates that the enterprise value of autonomous ride-hail platform operators could increase to $3.8 trillion globally by 2025. Given the size of the opportunity, the competition could prove fierce. Longer term, however, we believe companies with the most comprehensive and high-quality driving data and the best execution should enjoy natural geographic monopolies.
    Quote Originally Posted by 89coupe View Post
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    Beyond, bunch of creme puffs on this board.
    Everything I say is satire.

  13. #2933
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    What is Tesla doing that isn't easily replicable?

  14. #2934
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    What is Tesla doing that isn't easily replicable?
    Raising cash.
    Originally posted by SEANBANERJEE
    I have gone above and beyond what I should rightfully have to do to protect my good name

  15. #2935
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    What is Tesla doing that isn't easily replicable?
    Succeeding.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tik-Tok View Post
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    I'd be lying if I said I didn't disagree.
    Quote Originally Posted by suntan View Post
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    His name isn't NICEramos.

  16. #2936
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    Quote Originally Posted by rage2 View Post
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    Raising cash.
    Remember when everyone waned gopro stock? Then they realized it was just off the shelf shit slapped together?

    Tesla is just batteries and motors, isn't it?

    Fuck I hate tesla.

  17. #2937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    Fuck I hate tesla.
    Please no heckling

  18. #2938
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster View Post
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    What is Tesla doing that isn't easily replicable?
    Hiring the best of the best.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/the-...g%20and%20NASA.

    Oh shit... Tesla is number 2

  19. #2939
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    Weird.

    I could have sworn I have seen that exact list as “top 10 places that treat their employees the worst” before.
    Originally posted by Thales of Miletus

    If you think I have been trying to present myself as intellectually superior, then you truly are a dimwit.
    Originally posted by Toma
    fact.

  20. #2940
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    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    Weird.

    I could have sworn I have seen that exact list as ďtop 10 places that treat their employees the worstĒ before.
    Same source that told you TSLA is going to zero?

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