Tesla Motors

[supe]

Global Equities Research’s Trip Chowdhry notes that: "Impressions from Test Ride: Fast; Superb handling; extremely comfortable – spacious... There are no traditional gauges in the Model 3...very simplistic and elegant." He went on to explain: “There is no way BMW, Porche, GM, Toyota, Honda or any other existing auto manufacturer can come even close to competing with Tesla Model 3…Model 3 has been designed for the iPhone generation consumer, whose lives are digitally super-centered... and competition is completely clueless.”

[01RedDX]

.

[rx7_turbo2]

Originally posted by supe
Global Equities Research’s Trip Chowdhry notes that: "Impressions from Test Ride: Fast; Superb handling; extremely comfortable – spacious... There are no traditional gauges in the Model 3...very simplistic and elegant." He went on to explain: “There is no way BMW, Porche, GM, Toyota, Honda or any other existing auto manufacturer can come even close to competing with Tesla Model 3…Model 3 has been designed for the iPhone generation consumer, whose lives are digitally super-centered... and competition is completely clueless.”

Here's another Trip Chowdhry quote (in regards to Apple) just so we're all on the same page with this clown "They only have 60 days left to either come up with something or they will disappear.

Guy has his finger in the "pulse" that's for sure.

[ExtraSlow]

An equities analyst is the last guy I want to be doing a car review. When this car is widely available, selling well, and they are making a profit on each car, then I'll be impressed. I do believe Tesla has huge potential, because they've grasped the marketing so much better than the very conservative auto manufacturers. However, currently, they are beyond a niche player, and I don't see any durable advantage they hold over existing and future competition.

[ryanallan]

Originally posted by rage2
The difference is that every person in line at Apple nets Apple a profit, where as every person in line at Tesla nets Tesla a loss.

I was curious about this and started to play with numbers. All hypothetical, but the model 3 might be profitable.

1. From what Google tells me, the gigafactory will drastically reduce the cost of batteries for Tesla. Both because of the production volume and because of their new chemistry. Most are estimating a 50% reduction from today's costs.

2. Numbers are all over the place right now, but: On the high end, the Model S 85kWh battery replacement today costs $45,000, or $530/kWh. Most articles say Tesla is around the $300/kWh mark right now though. Or ~$150-250/kWh with the gigafactory.

3. Using the $45,000 number, that's pretty much 1/2 the price of the car. Where 85kWh gets you 450+ miles. If the model 3 gets 200 miles, using today's tech they would need probably less than 60kWh. With the improved battery tech, drivetrain and aero improvements, they could probably get away with something in the 50-55 kWh range. (Chevy Bolt has a 60kWh battery for the same 200+ miles range as the 3). Using the 50kWh battery, and assuming they can cut battery costs by 50%, it might cost in the neighborhood of $12,500 per battery on the high end or $7,500 on the low end. Less than 1/2 the price of the ($35,000) car.

4. As economy of sale kicks in for the 3's other major components, and with a reasonably cheap battery, the car could be profitable.

5. The Model S and X will probably also become profitable after the gigafactory comes online too.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by ryanallan


I was curious about this and started to play with numbers. All hypothetical, but the model 3 might be profitable.

1. From what Google tells me, the gigafactory will drastically reduce the cost of batteries for Tesla. Both because of the production volume and because of their new chemistry. Most are estimating a 50% reduction from today's costs.

2. Numbers are all over the place right now, but: On the high end, the Model S 85kWh battery replacement today costs $45,000, or $530/kWh. Most articles say Tesla is around the $300/kWh mark right now though. Or ~$150-250/kWh with the gigafactory.

3. Using the $45,000 number, that's pretty much 1/2 the price of the car. Where 85kWh gets you 450+ miles. If the model 3 gets 200 miles, using today's tech they would need probably less than 60kWh. With the improved battery tech, drivetrain and aero improvements, they could probably get away with something in the 50-55 kWh range. (Chevy Bolt has a 60kWh battery for the same 200+ miles range as the 3). Using the 50kWh battery, and assuming they can cut battery costs by 50%, it might cost in the neighborhood of $12,500 per battery on the high end or $7,500 on the low end. Less than 1/2 the price of the ($35,000) car.

4. As economy of sale kicks in for the 3's other major components, and with a reasonably cheap battery, the car could be profitable.

5. The Model S and X will probably also become profitable after the gigafactory comes online too.

It really depends on development cost. I think the production cost is down but R&D to get the 3 out is still be to seen. Nobody know how much of the $717M is spent in 2015 related to Model X development but the fact that Elon said the cheaper Model X won't be release for a while means it costed too much. And that's a product that they didn't announce a price for.

But that's right in line for the industry, it typically need to spend $1B for any new car and $6B for a new platform from the ground up. But the cost of offset by selling millions of vehicles base on it, So Model 3 should take around the same as Model X to bring to market and Tesla has $1.2B + another $0.3B from pre-order so it's gonna be tight to keep operating at a loss.

And here's the fun part, Model 3 is announced with a lower price and I would bet 1/2 the pre-order will stick to that. And at that price, if Tesla screw up like the X, they will lose money for on 50% of them made.


Or I like to look at it this way.

Say a Civic is $20K but take away the drivetrain and you have a $10K car.

So for Tesla to be profitable, battery and motors has to be $25K. And based on the 50% off math, it's definitely doable. And that's exactly how GM pulled off the Bolt and how Nissan will be able to pull off the Leaf both will reach 200 miles.

But at least for the Bolt, we know they use LG Chem's new battery tech to get the 50% off. Nissan has also hinted they are on the same path and achievement.

Here's what Tesla is fighting against:

» Click image for larger version

So Tesla better nailed it with Gigafactory (They expect $88/kwh to $38/kwh when fully running by 2020). Has Tesla announced anything about their battery tech? They should have announced a P160D by now if they have the tech. Or their battery should not cost $45K but $15K.

EDIT: Did some google fu and looks like Tesla and Panasonic is working on something but they can't control the swelling of battery yet. If they are successful, they expect the price of $200/kwh, still $50/kwh more than LG Chem and at least 1 year behind.

[supe]

Originally posted by supe

I actually admire GM for creating a respectable EV. I'm just saying, given Tesla's track record of creating exceptional cars, I have a strong suspicion that the Model 3 will be hands down miles ahead of the Bolt.

Originally posted by rage2

So you're comparing a car that exists today to a car that's vapourware and concluded that it'll be miles ahead. OK then.

Curious to hear what you think about your Bolt vs Model 3 opinion is now? I think the market has clearly decided which one is better.

[RealJimmyJames]

Model 3 is still two years away from being on the street. It is still vaporware.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by supe
Curious to hear what you think about your Bolt vs Model 3 opinion is now? I think the market has clearly decided which one is better.

The public won't know anything until they have the ability to drive both.

Right now they are putting down a deposit on hype and will probably wait anywhere between 2-5 years before taking ownership.

In 2-5 years all of the major manufacturers will have a comparable (if not better) product that people will be able to buy off the showroom floors. Telsa is really shooting themselves in the foot here. They have basically shown their hand to all of the other manufacturers with actual production capabilities without having the ability to deliver the vehicles in reasonable time.

It would be like Apple releasing the iPhone with all of its specs but not delivering a product for 2-5 years. Not exactly a smart business move.

I would be SHOCKED if Telsa actually delivered half of the vehicles that people have put down deposits for. My guess is that most will get tired of waiting a buy from another manufacturer or not buy anything at all.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
not to mention it will take them another 4 years to actually deliver the pre orders, if they even get that far

If you actually want an EV; Nissan, BMW, or GM are going to beu the companies to buy from.

I think the i3 is going to be cheaper than the model 3 too, and you can go get one today.

And in the next 5 years Ford, Honda, Toyota, VW and all of the other manufacturers that can actually build large numbers of vehicles will have comparable offerings.

Dumb move for Tesla to show the 3 to everyone without the ability to capitalize on the existing demand.

[RealJimmyJames]

Is Elon doing a pump and dump? Who thinks he'll start selling his shares over the next two years?

Running a hype company is very tough to do for the long term.

[JRSC00LUDE]

Originally posted by supe
Curious to hear what you think about your Bolt vs Model 3 opinion is now? I think the market has clearly decided which one is better.

Are you just trolling now? How can you possibly believe what you typed there? The "market" bought into more hype - that's it/that's all. The only way you could make that statement is if people had actually bought something that exists and were driving it.

[supe]

Originally posted by JRSC00LUDE



Are you just trolling now? How can you possibly believe what you typed there? The "market" bought into more hype - that's it/that's all. The only way you could make that statement is if people had actually bought something that exists and were driving it.

The market in this case being the stock market.

As of this writing, Ford, Toyota, GM are all down ~2% while Tesla is up 3%.

Also don't forget nearly 300k people have put down real money to buy this car. At the very worst that is a 300M interest free loan. And this is only a few days after announcing the car.

I somewhat agree with the statement that they shouldn't have released the reservation numbers but I think given the lineups it was pretty obvious it was through the roof.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[sputnik]

Originally posted by RealJimmyJames
Is Elon doing a pump and dump? Who thinks he'll start selling his shares over the next two years?

Running a hype company is very tough to do for the long term.

Either that or he is hoping never to have to build cars and just supply the batteries from the Gigafactory to other manufacturers and sell licenses to the Superchargers to other companies.

If Tesla wants to be profitable they need to get out of the car business.

[austic]

I think Elon doesn't really care about the profitability he seems to do what he wants and starts companies that interests him. commendable

[killramos]

Now that we have seen the actual model 3 pricing, and what it actually comes with at those prices. This being their "car for the masses". I want to again bring up the question of since when is 35,000 dollars a car for the masses? More like car for the middle-upper class.

And lets remember that as calgarians we are straight up delusional as to what an "average" car is.

Originally posted by killramos


And there begs the question of since when is a 35 thousand dollar car affordable for the masses?

Lets look at the top 10 non pickup truck cars sold in the US and their prices.

Toyota Corolla : $16,950
Toyota Camry : $22,970
Nissan Altima : $22,300
Honda CR-V : $23,445
Honda Accord : $22,105
Ford Escape : $22,960
Toyota RAV4 : $23,680
Ford Fusion : $22,110
Chevrolet Equinox : $22,120
Honda Civic : $18,490

Those top ten cars make up 24% of the US Passenger Cars, Crossovers, SUV's market. Teslas target market. That's an average selling price of $19,706. We can call it $20,000 for simplicity sake. Teslas target basement price is 75% higher than that.

35 thousand dollars is the price territory of the following kind of vehicles:

BMW 3 series : $32,950
Mercedes CLA : $31,500
Lexus NX : $ 34,480
Infiniti Q40 : $33,950
Audi A4 : $35,500
Lincoln MkZ : $ 35,190
Caddilac ATS Sedan : $33,125

Are those cars you consider affordable to the masses?

Each of those BRANDS of cars don't even compete with the sales of the top 10 cars from above. Not a very good recipe for thinking you are going to sell 500,000 cars a year. Or nearly 3 times the sales of the current most successful brand in the country.

There is no way you can advocate for Tesla's business plan and not be delusional.

The more realistic scenario is after putting 10 billion dollars of debt on in the next 5 years with no profit to show for it they get bought out for pennies on the dollar by Ford just to sell Tesla branded ford focus's for a proper rock bottom price.

With 5k down and 48 month financing a base model 3 is about 700 bucks a month to finance even at today's rock bottom interest rates. That's a lot of money.

I still maintain that for Tesla to be a car for the masses it has to start below 20k and still have all the features of the 3. So when is the Model 1 going to come out?

Personally I hope Tesla releases how many people bail on their pre order's when it comes time to write the big checks.

[supe]

Originally posted by killramos

Personally I hope Tesla releases how many people bail on their pre order's when it comes time to write the big checks.

Average new car price zips 2.6% to $33,560

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...book/26690191/

Also it won't matter how many people bail. This is what you don't understand, Tesla is not demand constrained. They will make and sell every car they make for the foreseeable future.

They got 300k reservations without a dime of advertising. If demand ever starts to drop off... then start advertising.

[killramos]

Transaction price. Including taxes, fees, options. All things Tesla's 35k doesn't include.

That statistic also includes light trucks which boosts the average price up significantly. and not 1 person in the north america is going to cross shop a Tesla and an F150.

Also where is your source for Tesla's marketing budget being less than 10 cents? I would love to see that. You think all those press events and promoters in the malls are free?