Tesla Motors

[Sugarphreak]

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[rage2]

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Tesla suspends production of the Model 3: Looks like they are going to re-tool so they can abandon autonomy in favour of good ol' fashion hand-built cars. Ironic!

This has been talked about for quite some time. Toyota literally figured out the most efficient way to build cars with the lowest amount of defects in the US, ironically at the NUMMI factory which they sold to Tesla for nothing. The lessons learnt by Toyota is applied at their Kentucky plant. It's not even a secret, it's been well documented and published, books to even Wikipedia articles on TPS.

With automation, you can only go so far. At one point, there's a point of diminishing returns, such as in final assembly, where it costs less to have human labor perform the work than do have robots do the work. The math there is that it costs less for human labor in the US than the costs of robots, engineers, and maintenance staff to keep it going. This is what Musk refers to when he said he made an automation mistake, and was predicted by anyone that knows anything about building cars at the beginning when Tesla said they're automating everything, and limits will be aerodynamics of robots.

It's probably an unfair comparison as cars are more complex these days (you could argue that Tesla says EVs are much simplier), but the NUMMI plant was churning out 9000 cars a week at it's peak. That was all sold off to Tesla, and has since doubled in size. They're basically pushing out 3000 cars a week across 3 models in double the space. That's how far away Tesla is from being on par with Toyota/GM at the exact same place.

[ExtraSlow]

Yes, I think it's a point that is often forgotten, an EV is mechanically less complex and should assemble much faster than a ICE-powered vehicle. All the "high tech" bits of the tesla are basically software anyway, which may or may not be impressive, but it's not hard to assemble once the code is written.

[Sugarphreak]

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[rage2]

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A big part of their problem is they are not really car designers, they are tech geeks... so likely zero effort when into making the vehicles easy to construct. Whereas any major car manufacturer puts that as one of the top priorities when they start the design of a new car. You can tell that construction was an afterthought... and it is going to sink them.

If they had played this right, they probably could have done an amazing job with production. With no mechanical engine, they could have made a super simple modular style design that could be churned out in half the time. The car would have been slightly less stylish, but it would have been way more affordable and cost effective to make. Let's be honest... Tesla cars are fucking ugly as shit anyway, it isn't like the cult following they seem to attract would reject an even uglier car.

I don't think that's the case. With the original roadster, yes, production was brutal. The S/X/3 was designed to be easy to build (exception maybe with the falcon doors on the X). The problem is trying to assemble cars differently hoping to disrupt the industry, which failed. I'm sure if Tesla adopted TPS at the start, things would be a bit different today.

If you go back to page 1, I identified Tesla's biggest problem, the cost to ramp up mass production. It will take hundreds of billions of dollars to get to the worldwide level of production numbers/quality of the big car manufacturers if you're doing it the proven reliable way. Unfortunately, that takes years of sales to fund that sort of growth, or massive outside investment. Tesla is trying to shortcut the whole process and do it cheaper, only to bite them in the ass with inconsistent quality and random problems trying to ramp up.

[Sugarphreak]

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[JRSC00LUDE]

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If you go back to page 1, I identified Tesla's biggest problem, the cost to ramp up mass production. It will take hundreds of billions of dollars to get to the worldwide level of production numbers/quality of the big car manufacturers if you're doing it the proven reliable way. Unfortunately, that takes years of sales to fund that sort of growth, or massive outside investment. Tesla is trying to shortcut the whole process and do it cheaper, only to bite them in the ass with inconsistent quality and random problems trying to ramp up.

But wasn't that whole argument completely discredited by Gestidiot? I wonder why that troll isn't in here righteously defending his messiah? lolololol

[Sugarphreak]

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[rx7boi]

My Science and Technology mutual fund is 9.7% in Tesla haha. I'm sure the fund manager has some sort of strategy but I don't know what it is.

[rage2]

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But wasn't that whole argument completely discredited by Gestidiot? I wonder why that troll isn't in here righteously defending his messiah? lolololol

Like Sugarphreak said, it was mostly supe. He couldn't separate the difference between Tesla the car and Tesla the company.

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My Science and Technology mutual fund is 9.7% in Tesla haha. I'm sure the fund manager has some sort of strategy but I don't know what it is.

I used a completely different strategy this round in predicting Tesla's spike by monitoring reddit and TMC forums, and how they reacted to current news to play the short game. I actually caught both the bottom and peak by $3. Pretty proud of myself there haha.

Tesla as a long game is a dangerous game to play IMO.

[JRSC00LUDE]

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Like Sugarphreak said, it was mostly supe. He couldn't separate the difference between Tesla the car and Tesla the company.

Ahhh, yes I see that. It's tough to remember which wingnut was drinking out of which glass of kool-aid.

[Sugarphreak]

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[rage2]

Good listen/read on Fremont Factory to NUMMI factory transition. You can see a lot of the mistakes that Tesla is making by not leveraging what made NUMMI successful.

https://www.npr.org/templates/transc...ryId=125229157

[BerserkerCatSplat]

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Good listen/read on Fremont Factory to NUMMI factory transition. You can see a lot of the mistakes that Tesla is making by not leveraging what made NUMMI successful.

https://www.npr.org/templates/transc...ryId=125229157

It's shocking that despite there being an incredible amount of lessons-learned in that industry, Tesla decided they wanted to do their own thing and managed to fail to produce quantity or quality. Usually you'll hit one at least.

[JRSC00LUDE]

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It's shocking that despite there being an incredible amount of lessons-learned in that industry, Tesla decided they wanted to do their own thing and managed to fail to produce quantity or quality. Usually you'll hit one at least.

Is it really though? The man has an insane level of arrogance. Which, admittedly, has served him well. However everyone has limits and he never was and never will be, a car manufacturer.

[Sugarphreak]

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[killramos]

Honestly Tesla as a company would have probably been fine making 0-60 in 3s cars for the rich. 150g 200g 250g per car, irrelevant as they can sell every one they make (at their original low production speed) as a lot of the people buying their cars don’t care about the math, they just want something cool. Which Tesla’s are for sure, the whole niche concept worked perfectly for them.

Same as any niche car, AMG M, Lamborghini Ferrari, Range Rover G class. None of those cars make any sense. But they are cool so who cares and they sell every one they make. Doesn’t mean everyone in the world should be driving one.

It was the callous attitude that he was going to surpass the mainstream automakers in selling normal cars that is doing him in.

[BerserkerCatSplat]

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Is it really though? The man has an insane level of arrogance. Which, admittedly, has served him well. However everyone has limits and he never was and never will be, a car manufacturer.

I figured after their early public production failures they'd at least have the sense to hire some industry experts to get their shit sorted out. Apparently I underestimated Musk's ego.

[benyl]

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It's shocking that despite there being an incredible amount of lessons-learned in that industry, Tesla decided they wanted to do their own thing and managed to fail to produce quantity or quality. Usually you'll hit one at least.

you can't change the world if you do the same way everyone else does....

[suntan]

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you can't change the world if you do the same way everyone else does....

That's why I do everything bottomless.