FALLing house prices

[JordanLotoski]

Market has cooled a bit for sure, things are still very steady, but nothing like spring/summer, which is somewhat normal.

[Sugarphreak]

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[ExtraSlow]

Sugar is right, upside in a down market.
through blind luck I was doing a major upsize at the depths of the 2008-2009 real-estate trough. It was amazing, my little starter home sold really easily, because that's what people could afford, and I got a killer deal on the "step-up" house I'm in now.

Need another very serious downmarket for me to afford the "baller" places I have my eye on. Even if my current home goes down by 15%, I'm betting top-line homes go down by 20%.

[max_boost]

i guess if those milly condos dont sell in a hot market, i will def lowball during the next downturn lol

[max_boost]

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[juwantme]

I dont normally read the Calgary Sun as I find it like tabloid trash however there was an article from a yr ago fwd to me that got me thinking:

http://www.calgarysun.com/2013/05/23/expect-dramatic-shift-in-city-home-market[/URL]

Basically the article argues that:
"The ratio of single-family homes to multi-family homes to be built down the road in Calgary will shift dramatically in favour of the multi-family units."

The writer thereafter provides a series of calculations to support his conclusion.

Thoughts?

[oz388]

Originally posted by juwantme
I dont normally read the Calgary Sun as I find it like tabloid trash however there was an article from a yr ago fwd to me that got me thinking:

http://www.calgarysun.com/2013/05/23/expect-dramatic-shift-in-city-home-market[/URL]

Basically the article argues that:
"The ratio of single-family homes to multi-family homes to be built down the road in Calgary will shift dramatically in favour of the multi-family units."

The writer thereafter provides a series of calculations to support his conclusion.

Thoughts?

The reason is people can no longer afford a single house with their income and savings in future because the value of our currency goes down in a much faster rate than the salary growth. Its also more economic for the government to renovate the older communities by building condos than to do fresh development of new communities for population growth since infrastructures are pricey.

[BigMass]

I'm actually noticing a lot of my email listings are going "terminated". Meaning they're not selling and instead of dropping the price they're just taking it off the market and holding out. I think while we may not see the huge price increases year over year anymore, I also don't see house prices falling. People seem to be happy holding onto their stuff if it's not selling for record prices.

[Sugarphreak]

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[benyl]

Wait a few months... Oil is trading below $80.

[spikerS]

Goldman-Sachs is predicting $70 BBL oil in the first 3 months of 2015, and even lower for second quarter next year. That means for the big execs to get their bonuses, bigger lay-offs will happen, and drive down the price of housing.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-...says-1.2814041

One of the world's leading investment banks says the benchmark price of North American oil is going to fall even further, to $70 US a barrel by next spring.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast late Sunday night for both West Texas Intermediate (known as WTI) and Brent crude — the two most common types of oil used and sold in North America and Europe.

Goldman Sachs says WTI will go for $75 a barrel in the first three months of 2015. Brent, meanwhile, will change hands at $85 a barrel. Both forecasts are down $15 from what the bank was last expecting. And both are forecast to slip even lower in the second quarter — historically a seasonally low time for oil prices — before rebounding a little in the summer of 2015.

Basically, everyone is citing supply and demand, and that there is more oil being produced that what is needed. Watch the Saudis, as they are pumping more oil of late, and if they slow down, then things may pick back up.

[msommers]

So end of Q1 2015 I should pick up some oil stocks?

[oz388]

Originally posted by spikerS
Goldman-Sachs is predicting $70 BBL oil in the first 3 months of 2015, and even lower for second quarter next year. That means for the big execs to get their bonuses, bigger lay-offs will happen, and drive down the price of housing.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-...says-1.2814041



Basically, everyone is citing supply and demand, and that there is more oil being produced that what is needed. Watch the Saudis, as they are pumping more oil of late, and if they slow down, then things may pick back up.

This oil price war is: US+Saudis V.S. Russian.

So the oil price maybe pressured low for a very long time until Russian back off from Ukraine or go bankrupt I guess.

[roopi]

Home sales, prices rise sharply in Calgary, Canada's hottest market

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle21426953/

The hottest housing market in the country is still running strong.

Home sales in Calgary, the heart of Canada’s oil industry, surged by more than 10 per cent in October from a year earlier, while the city’s benchmark price rose by almost as much, up 9.5 per cent.

Sales in the city rose to 2,147, pushed along by condos, according to a report today from CREB, the local real estate board.

New listings rose by almost 16 per cent.

The benchmark price, in turn, jumped to $460,700 from $420,700 a year earlier.

“While all sectors saw unadjusted monthly prices level off and growth ease, year-over-year increases remained above 9 per cent across all categories due to gains achieved this past spring,” the group said.

And here’s an interesting tidbit: “As of October, only 18 per cent of new single-family listings were priced below $400,000 and only 387 remained in inventory by the end of the month.”

Prices, of course, vary by the type of abode.

The benchmark for single-family homes jumped 9.7 per cent to $513,500 as sales in that category rose almost 10 per cent.

Condo apartment prices rose 8.6 per cent, to just shy of $300,000 as sales surged more than 14 per cent.

And prices of condo townhouses gained 9.8 per cent to $337,800 as sales jumped 7.9 per cent.

So far this year, overall resales in Calgary are up almost 11 per cent.

“Two consecutive years of relatively strong employment and population growth, combined with rising wages and low lending rates, have supported demand growth in our housing sector,” the board’s chief economist, Ann-Marie Lurie, said in a statement.

Calgary is one of Canada’s three high-flying markets, the others being Vancouver and Toronto.

[msommers]

"single-family homes jumped 9.7 per cent to $513,500"

On a single income I'm so fucked, even with what I thought was a pretty good wage!

[spikerS]

Originally posted by msommers
"single-family homes jumped 9.7 per cent to $513,500"

On a single income I'm so fucked, even with what I thought was a pretty good wage!

said pretty much everyone.

[Sugarphreak]

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[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Sharp is one word for it... more like a sudden explosion; in a week since I last posted stats for October things jumped massively upwards

I've never seen a turn around this fast before in the housing market, never mind towards xmas

i'll hopefully be able to spike that average a bit here shortly but im happy to see this cause i was getting worried

[Cos]

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[bjstare]

This is interesting. Wonder how long it's going to hold out.

I'm in a position right now where I can sell my place and exit the market, so to speak, for about 6 months before I need to find another place. I've toyed with the idea of selling now (and making a few percent on my current place) and taking the gamble things will have dropped by spring.

Downside is, it's definitely a gamble. If things keep climbing, I could very well screw myself over. haha